11 Feb 2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 Corona Virus Outbreak

I’m likely to be away from keyboard for a day or two, again on my trip back: I’m adding this new thread. There’s s lot of good information in the prior threads, so folks new to the topic, or looking at it historically at some future date, may wish to start there. In chronological order:






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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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225 Responses to 11 Feb 2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 Corona Virus Outbreak

  1. Larry Ledwick says:

    Current tally this evening 20:37 MDT is
    45,182 known cases
    1,115 deaths
    4,793 recovered

    The original temporary virus name of 2019-nCoV is now a formal name of SARS-CoV-2
    The disease it causes is now named COVID-19 (Corona Virus Induced Disease – 19)
    (the Chinese call the disease NCP )

    34 new cases discovered on the Cruise ship Diamond Princess in Yokuska Japan, they today announced yet another batch of 34 new patients, one of which includes the Japanese quarantine officer managing the quarantine.

    Some evidence is appearing that the true R0 for SARS-CoV-2 may be between 4.7 and 6.6 which puts it in the same class of infectiousness as polio, rubella, and small pox. Also breaking today is word that the quarantine period previously believed to be 2 -14 days may in fact be much longer with reported cases of 24 and one of 48 days incubation (still not formally confirmed but lots of chatter on this)

    China known cases numbers are slowly diminishing their rate of growth but many suspect that they are under reporting cases by using test criteria that excludes a lot of patients which almost certainly have COVID-19, very aggressive control measures in use do not fit with a disease outbreak which is supposedly being successfully controlled.

  2. Larry Ledwick says:

  3. Larry Ledwick says:

    Correction Diamond Princes +39 cases today
    BNO Newsroom
    ‏Verified account

    BREAKING: 39 new cases of coronavirus on cruise ship near Tokyo, raising ship’s total to 174 – Jiji

  4. Bob K says:


    “A staff member at the Central Theater General Hospital (Hankou Hospital) in Wuhan confirmed armed police officers were hospitalized.

    Among them, 1,500 Chinese soldiers and 1,000 armed police are being quarantined, and China Human Rights and Democracy Information Center, headquartered in Hong Kong, reported on February 10 that 10 CCP soldiers and 15 armed police have been diagnosed with the new virus in Hubei province.

    The Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Hospital (Hainan) Hospital in Sanya is preparing to test 3,000 people for new virus pneumonia samples.

    300 armed police were isolated to a training site of the Hubei Provincial Corps of the Armed Police.

    An epidemic has emerged in the Chinese Navy. After a serviceman of the Navy Submarine Force in Sanya, Hainan, was diagnosed with Covid-19, 300 sailors were isolated, and training programs on nuclear submarines, scheduled to start this month, have been suspended.”

    If this spreads throughout their military I wouldn’t be surprised to see many senior politicians ousted.

  5. Larry Ledwick says:


    @lookner Report from Los Alamos Lab estimates r0 of virus at 4.7-6.6. Title: “The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated”

    9:21 PM – 11 Feb 2020

    Ref our discussion about cross contamination possible in certain eating situations where dinners take food products from a common dish.

    Steve Lookner
    ‏Verified account
    Feb 10
    MoreSteve Lookner Retweeted Alvin L
    11 members of a family who attended a hotpot dinner in Hong Kong have now tested positive for the coronavirus

    William Yang
    ‏Verified account
    Feb 10
    Breaking – Chinese expert Zhong Nan-Shan led a research on the clinical traits of the #coronavirus and concluded that the incubation period of the virus can go from 3 days to as long as 24 days. Previously, the longest incubation period was believed to be 14 days.

  6. Larry Ledwick says:

    Singapore cranks out a web app to help distribute government masks to the public in about 24 hours, then speeds up the validation process where new info was reflected in the web site in 4 minutes instead of an hour.


    I am sure these sorts of crash projects have been rolling out all over asia for the last few weeks as people get a grip on what is going on and what is needed. Many private companies have gone into the mask production business themselves to ensure their workers have the proper equipment to keep normal production up and running.

  7. Larry Ledwick says:


    Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of 2019-nCoV Outbreak in China

    Background: The 2019-nCoV outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention. As of February 5, 2020, a total of 24433 cases of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia associated with 2019-nCov were confirmed by the National Health Commission of China. Methods: Three approaches, namely Poisson likelihood-based method (ML), exponential growth rate-based method (EGR) and stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed dynamic model-based method (SIR), were implemented to estimate the basic and controlled reproduction numbers. Results: A total of 71 chains of transmission together with dates of symptoms onset and 67 dates of infections were identified among 5405 confirmed cases outside Hubei as reported by February 2, 2020. Based on this information, we find the serial interval having an average of 4.41 days with a standard deviation of 3.17 days and the infectious period having an average of 10.91 days with a standard deviation of 3.95 days. Although the estimated controlled reproduction numbers R_c produced by all three methods in all different regions are significantly smaller compared with the basic reproduction numbers R_0, they are still greater than one. Conclusions: Although the controlled reproduction number is declining, it is still larger than one. Additional efforts are needed to further reduce the R_c to below one in order to end the current epidemic.

    Download pdf

    Click to access 2020.02.08.20021253v1.full.pdf

  8. Larry Ledwick says:


    The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak

    Motivated by the rapid spread of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of both domestic and international travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the evidence of internationally imported cases before the implementation of the travel quarantine of Wuhan. By assuming a generation time of 7.5 days, the reproduction number is estimated to be 2.4 [90% CI 2.2-2.6]. The median estimate for number of cases before the travel ban implementation on January 23, 2020 is 58,956 [90% CI 40,759 – 87,471] in Wuhan and 3,491 [90% CI 1,924 – 7,360] in other locations in Mainland China. The model shows that as of January 23, most Chinese cities had already received a considerable number of infected cases, and the travel quarantine delays the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days. The travel quarantine has a more marked effect at the international scale, where we estimate the number of case importations to be reduced by 80% until the end of February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

    Download pdf

    Click to access 2020.02.09.20021261v1.full.pdf

  9. Larry Ledwick says:


    Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States

    Abstract: The 2019-nCoV outbreak has raised concern of global spread. While person-to-person transmission within the Wuhan district has led to a large outbreak, the transmission potential outside of the region remains unclear. Here we present a simple approach for determining whether the upper limit of the confidence interval for the reproduction number exceeds one for transmission in the United States, which would allow endemic transmission. As of February 7, 2020, the number of cases in the United states support subcritical transmission, rather than ongoing transmission. However, this conclusion can change if pre-symptomatic cases resulting from human-to-human transmission have not yet been identified.

    download pdf

    Click to access 2020.02.08.20021311v1.full.pdf

  10. Larry Ledwick says:

    Coronavirus [2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2] ‘could infect 60% of global population if unchecked’


    Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, said the overriding question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg. Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an “attack rate” of 60-80%.

    “Sixty per cent of the world’s population is an awfully big number,” Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva on Tuesday.

    Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%, which Leung thinks is possible once milder cases are taken into account, the death toll would be massive.

    Estimated world population:
    7,794,798,739 (July 1 2020) source: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
    60% = 4,676,879,243
    1% of 60% infected would be ~= 46,768,792 (this is very close to the estimated death toll from the 1918 flu pandemic, so we have a demonstrated precedent for that level of deaths. It does take time though so if such a massive death toll happened it would be stretched over months.

  11. Larry Ledwick says:



    Backgroud: Since the outbreak of coronaviruses on December 8, 2019, the spread of new coronaviruses is increasing. With no specific medicine, analysis of epidemic trends is critical for disease control and epidemic risk management. Methods: We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by Feburary 6, 2020. Considering the huge population migration during the spring festival of China, a Flow-SEIR model is proposed to perform empirical analysis. Assuming that most of people will go back to work from February 10 to the end of February, the risk of the coming migration from home to workplace is defined and estimated, based on the confirmed cases and the Spring Festival migration data. We use data from Baidu Migration to estimate the coming migration for returning to the workplace after vacation from February 10 to 28, 2020. The risk of migration for returning was then estimated. Main findings: (1). The time when the number of daily new cases has reached a peak level, i.e. the national epidemic inflection point, is expected to be on February 7 – February 9. After the inflection point, the number of infected people will grow slowly and the epidemic will be gradually controlled. We define the temporal number of infected cases as the net cumulative number of cases. And the peak value represents the maximum of the net cumulative number, after this peak point, the current number of cases will gradually decrease and the epidemic will gradually subside. The predicted peak value of confirmed cases in Hubei can reach 62800 (56900 – 70300, 0.95 CI). The peak time in Hubei is on February 29 (Feb. 25 – Mar. 08, 0.95 CI). The peak arrival time of areas except Hubei will be in the interval of Mar.8 – Mar. 15, 2020. It will take about 1.5-2 months from the peak to the end of the epidemic. Most provinces have the predicted peak values less than 1000. The potential epidemic situation will be stable in March 2020- June 2020. (2). Rather than larger outbreak, the estimated number of infective patients in Hubei (in which Wuhan is located) presents a front and steep feature, manifesting the overall trend that the epidemic tends to be consistent. (3). The necessary consciousness of self-protection and isolation is very effective for epidemic prevention and control. It can reduce the number of patients by nearly 90%. The effect of self-protection and isolation is stronger than the policy of traffic blockage. Provincial level traffic blockage can only alleviate 21.06% – 22.38% of the peak number of patients. (4). Early warning of epidemic situation is very important. In the experimental environment, the results show that if there is 1 day in advance of the timely urban blockage, about 3600 people will eventually be reduced in the country. If there is 1 day of delay, about 1800 people will finally be at risk. (5). Assuming that the false negative rate is 50% and the potential transmission rate is 1-4 times higher than that of the confirmed patients, the real peak number of patients is likely to be between 214400-472500. Suppose that the transmission rate of the false negative patient is twice that of the confirmed patient, if the false negative rate decreased by 5% in one week, the peak number of patients will slow down by 11.62%. If the proportion decreased by 10% in one week, the peak number of patients will decreased by 21.91%, which shows timely detection of false negative population is more effective for epidemic control. (6). Under the natural condition, the return of Spring Festival transportation will aggravate the epidemic situation, especially for Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, Shanghai, Fujian and Beijing. We did not perform the global propagation of 2019-nCoV because that the available initial data is not sufficient to make valuable conclusions.

    download pdf

    Click to access 2020.02.09.20021444v1.full.pdf

  12. Larry Ledwick says:


    Spatially Explicit Modeling of 2019-nCoV Epidemic Trend based on Mobile Phone Data in Mainland China

    In December 2019, Wuhan, China reported an outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). As of February 7, 2020, the total number of the confirmed cases in mainland China reached to 34,546 of whom 722 have died and 2,050 recovered. While most Chinese cities have confirmed cases, the city-level epidemical dynamics is unknown. The aim of this study is to model the dynamics of 2019-nCoV at city level and predict the trend under different scenarios in mainland China. We used mobile phone data and modified the classic epidemiological Susceptible – Infectious – Recovered (SIR) model to consider several unique characteristics of the outbreak of 2019-nCoV in mainland China. The modified SIR model was trained using the confirmed cases from January 25 to February 1 and validated by the data collected on February 2, 2020. The prediction accuracy of new infected cases on February 2 (R2 = 0.94, RMSE = 18.24) is higher than using the classic SIR model (R2 = 0.69, RMSE = 40.18). We used the trained model to predict the trend in the next 30 days (up to March 2, 2020) under different scenarios: keeping the early-stage trend, controlling the disease as successfully as SARS in 2003, and increasing person-to-person contacts due to work/school resuming. Results show that the total infected population in mainland China will be 10.53, 0.15, and 0.41 million and 67%, 100%, 91% Chinese cities will control the virus spreading by March 2, 2020 under the above three scenarios. Our study also provides the city-level spatial pattern of the epidemic trend for decision makers to allocate resources for controlling virus spreading.

    Click to access 2020.02.09.20021360v1.full.pdf

  13. Larry Ledwick says:


    The lockdown of Hubei Province causing different transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan and Beijing

    After the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) starting in late 2019, a number of researchers have reported the predicted the virus transmission dynamics. However, under the strict control policy the novel coronavirus does not spread naturally outside Hubei Province, and none of the prediction closes to the real situation. We used the traditional SEIR model, fully estimated the effect of control measures, to predict the virus transmission in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei Province, and Beijing. We forecast that the outbreak of 2019-nCoV would reach its peak around March 10 in Wuhan and March 31 in Beijing, respectively. The infectious population in Beijing would be much less (only 0.3%) than those in Wuhan at the peak of this transmission wave. The unprecedented province lockdown substantially suspends the national and global outbreak of 2019-nCoV.

    Click to access 2020.02.09.20021477v1.full.pdf

    [So much for all the screaming about quarantines don’t do any good!]

  14. Larry Ledwick says:


    Epidemiological and clinical features of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China

    Background: The ongoing outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China has led to the declaration of Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. Methods: All 2019-nCoV infected patients reported to Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention up to 26 January 2020 were included for analysis. Disease and death incidence were compared between demographic groups and baseline conditions. Case fatality rates (CFRs) and the basic reproductive number R0 was estimated with a transmission model. Results: As of 26 January 2020, a total of 8866 patients including 4021 (45.35%) laboratory confirmed patients were reported from 30 provinces. Nearly half of the patients were aged 50 years or older (47.7%). There was a clear gender difference in incidence with 0.31 (male) vs. 0.27 (female) per 100,000 people (P<0.001). The median incubation period was 4.75 (interquartile range: 3.0-7.2) days. About 25.5%, 69.9% and 4.5% patients were diagnosed with severe pneumonia, mild pneumonia, and non-pneumonia, respectively. The overall CFR was estimated be 3.06% (95% CI 2.02-4.59%), but male patients, ≥60 years old, baseline diagnosis of severe pneumonia and delay in diagnosis were associated with substantially elevated CFR. The R0 was estimated to be 3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05), ranging 2.23-4.82 in sensitivity analyses varying the incubation and infectious periods. Conclusions: Compared with SARS-CoV, 2019-nCoV had comparable transmissibility and lower CFR. Our findings based on individual-level surveillance data emphasize the importance of early detection of elderly patients, particularly males, before symptoms progress to severe pneumonia.

    Click to access 2020.02.10.20021675v1.full.pdf

  15. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    12 February 2020 at 4:34 am

    That points out that the high R0 observed in your reports may be specific to Chinese sanitation.

  16. M Simon says:

    Spread in the military was one of the tests for release intentional / not.

    That is evidence for not intentional.

  17. M Simon says:

    I was referring to:

    Bob K says:
    12 February 2020 at 4:26 am

  18. Larry Ledwick says:

    M Simon says:
    12 February 2020 at 7:56 am

    R0 is always a combination of the native infectious nature of the agent and the environment it is in.

    The nominal R0 for measles is about 12, if you are the only guy on a desert island and have the measles your R0 will be zero.

    The R0 at a rock concert will be much different than people who are loaners who live a 1/4 mile from each other and seldom see their neighbors.

    That is what quarantine is all about, one of its functions is to physically modify the conditions for transmission and force the R0 lower by making it difficult for the infection to spread. Face masks do the same thing, they make it much more difficult to spray your friends and co-workers with dropplets when you sneeze. There is as you point out, a very significant social and cultural component to it for sure.

    Big city folks who like to stand shoulder to shoulder in crowded bars after work will have a very different transmission profile than rural folks that get home from work and sit on the front porch and sip lemonade while they watch the squirrels chase each other.

  19. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    12 February 2020 at 8:42 am

    You would think eating out of a common pot would be obvious.

  20. M Simon says:

    Chinese Media: Critics Will ‘Smell Like Stinky Farts’ After Coronavirus Defeated

    Chinese state media is laboring furiously to rewrite the narrative of the Wuhan virus epidemic as a tale of the Chinese people coming together behind their wise and noble Communist leadership, rather than the existential crisis for Party leadership that most outside observers are seeing.


    The backdrop for the Global Times editorial is the mounting political crisis facing the Communist Party after the death of Dr. Li Wenliang, a whistleblower who was treated as a seditious rumor-monger for sounding early alarms about the danger of the Wuhan coronavirus.

  21. jim2 says:

    Georgia health officials announced on Tuesday that roughly 200 residents were self-monitoring for the coronavirus after recently returning from China.

    None of the residents have shown symptoms of the virus or visited Hubei province — the epicenter of the outbreak.

    Health officials reportedly didn’t use the word quarantine, instead, phrasing it that people are being isolated in their homes for 14 days, which is considered the virus’s incubation period, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. A new paper by Chinese scientists says the period could be as long as 24 days.


  22. jim2 says:

    I note from the Johns Hopkins dashboard there are still no cases reported in South American or Africa. There has been no spreading in Australia. Warmth is the virus’ nemesis.

  23. Bill In Oz says:

    JIm2 Here in Australia we have 14 confirmed infected patients. The 14 day quarantine period which has emerged as the standard for determining new infections is not yet complete. So while I hope you are right about Warmth being the enemy of Corona Virus, it’s a little early to declare the victory here.

  24. jim2 says:

    Bill In Oz – off topic, but I was reading about the power issues there. Do you think the government (or politicians) will ever get that renewable energy is a loser? Why does the public keep putting greenies in charge? Just curious if you know. We are developing similar issues here in the US.

  25. S.T. Taylor says:

    The Political Angle to the recent numbers:

    A site that I check daily is wuflu.live – there is a chart that tracks daily infections. The official numbers show that daily infections peaked at around 4000 on 2/4 and have slowly tracked down to only around 2000 new infections on 2/11 – the lowest since 1/30. The obvious takeaway is that the number of infections is going down, the disease is finally under control, and the CCP is awesome!

    However, that is only if you buy the official numbers as accurate.

    I spend yesterday on WeChat with a friend whose wife is a head doctor at an ER in Shanghai. They have been swamped for days with patients. According to WuFlu and Johns Hopkins – Shanghai area only has a little over 300 confirmed patients. But according to my friend his wife have been slammed for days. In fact – I just placed a huge order for masks (N95) that I will be sending to Shanghai since they can’t get any off the shelf and the hospital is running low.

    So – it does not seem like the official numbers actually track what is happening on the ground.

    The CCP has been ramping up articles on how well they have managed the outbreak and how the west is horrible to even question how great they are. Xi was seen recently out in public as the fact of the battle against the disease. And the “official” numbers support that China is winning.

    I wonder how much of this is China just pinning their hopes on the weather improving in the next 30+ days and the virus going dormant for the season??

    Reality in China is rarely important – only the image. For the sake of China I hope that they weather does knock this down…

  26. Pingback: Covid-19 or 2019-nCoV, now named SARS-CoV-2  | pgtruspace's blog

  27. Larry Ledwick says:

    Morning all!
    Numbers this morning (map pretty much looks the same as the last week so not much point in screen shot here, but here is the important data and the graph plot of cases which provides a better picture of where [mostly china] is in responding to the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 and the associated clinical disease COVID-19

    Note that a clear logistic curve (sigma curve) is developing presumably due to China’s very aggressive contact control and sanitation efforts. There is still lots of info to suggest China is providing a sanitized version of true cases and there are likely 10’s of thousands more cases both living and dead in China than officially reported.

    Total Confirmed
    Total Deaths
    Total Recovered

    Confirmed Cases by Country/Region

    44,687 Mainland China
    175 Others
    50 Hong Kong
    47 Singapore
    33 Thailand
    28 South Korea
    28 Japan
    18 Malaysia
    18 Taiwan
    16 Germany
    15 Australia
    15 Vietnam
    13 US
    11 France
    10 Macau
    8 United Arab Emirates
    8 UK
    7 Canada
    3 Italy
    3 Philippines
    3 India
    2 Russia
    2 Spain
    1 Nepal
    1 Cambodia
    1 Belgium
    1 Finland
    1 Sweden
    1 Sri Lanka

  28. Larry Ledwick says:

    It is perhaps worth noting that most of the world outside China and its close neighbors are in about the same place that China was in late October early November of last year when early medical observers first began noticing an unusual flu like syndrome.

    What we might see is that China has the initial wave of infections mostly under control but it will continue to burn through the country side at a low intensity for months. The buffer countries and population centers (North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Shanghi, Hong Kong, Taiwan Thailand, Australia, Singapore and Indonesia) are now facing the outbreak phase (like China in early January) where they have enough seeded infections that it could go exponential with just a few super spreaders getting into the population at large. That will likely trigger aggressive growth in cases like happened in China in early January

    They will either deal with it early and aggressively or have a surge of cases in their own country similar to China. More distant countries like India Europe, the US etc. have only small spot cases right now and will be weeks behind.

    I think at this point it is inevitable that the disease slowly burns through the majority of the population centers in the world over then next couple years, we may see several “waves of infection” as it sweeps into population groups that have little or no previous contact.

    For example H1N1 made its first outbreak in April of 2009 and On 10 August 2010 they announced the end of the outbreak after it had infected perhaps 11–21% of the world’s population with about 700–1400 million people contracted the illness eventually and 150k – 575k fatalities. The Spanish flu of 1918 did the same thing, it took some time but the Spanish flu likely affected about 27% of the world’s population over about 2 years from January 1918 to December 1920 with a death toll upwards of 50 – 100 million.

    I think SARS-CoV-2 and the disease COVID-19 will do the same thing and gradually walk across the planet over the next year or two. At this point we are in a watchful waiting mode to deal with it as it takes root in various locations (perhaps mutates a bit) and local outbreaks take their toll.

    With modern communication and medical treatment capabilities it is more difficult but not impossible for a major disease outbreak to cut through a population group like plagues of old did but they can and will from time to time take their cut of the most vulnerable in the herd.

  29. Larry Ledwick says:

    Corona virus (2019-nCoV/COVID-19) watcher

    HONG KONG: As at noon today (February 12), public hospitals had reported to the Department of Health the admission of ➡️59⬅️ patients (32 male and 27 female, aged 20 to 92) in the past 24 hours who met the reporting criteria of severe respiratory disease associated with… (1/2)

    …a novel infectious agent. Specimens of the patients concerned have been sent for testing. One patient was discharged today while 135 patients are still under isolation. (2/2)


  30. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting look at the current situation in China:


    Click to access UnderstandingDifference3-508.pdf

    Lots of links here to follow down the rabbit hole (above link came from within these links)

  31. Larry Ledwick says:


    The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

    The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

    Click to access 2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

  32. Larry Ledwick says:

    Overview of U.S. Domestic Response to the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
    February 10, 2020 R46219

    This report discusses selected actions taken by the federal government to quell the introduction and spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the United States. 2019-nCoV is causing the third serious outbreak of novel coronavirus in modern times, following severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in 2012. The global health community is closely monitoring 2019-nCoV because of the severity of symptoms (including death) among those infected, and the speed of its spread worldwide. At this time, U.S health officials say the immediate health risk from the new virus to the general American public is low. However, federal agencies have ongoing activities to control and prepare for the spread of 2019-nCoV. Domestic response activities of federal agencies in collaboration with state and local governments include, among others: (1) investigation of 2019-nCoV cases and infection control measures in the community; (2) travel restrictions and/or quarantine requirements on certain travelers who have recently visited China; (3) medical countermeasure development; and (4) health system preparedness.

    Click to access 20200210_R46219_bcbb9ce4fc1dfe6be829363ef606dd68f8a51cb7.pdf

  33. Larry Ledwick says:

    Killer coronavirus outbreak is ‘just getting started’ outside of China and will strike EVERY country on the planet, warns infectious diseases expert


  34. S.T. Taylor says:


    CCP is seizing private property. Just another example of proof that the outbreak is much worse than they (CCP) will admit.

  35. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ Larry –

    I agree – this will encompass the entire planet eventually – Will it be like H1N1 with ~250k fatalities or the Spanish Flu or even worse???

  36. Larry Ledwick says:

    The number of people in self isolation in the US is probably a lot bigger than people suspect.
    1000 people being told to self quarantine in LA for 14 days.

    Video clip LA news station

  37. Larry Ledwick says:

    News Item on the Diamond Princes cruise liner in Japan.


    Item on the new budget and funding for CDC, just because there is a pandemic does not mean you have to stop cutting fund wasting activities in CDC. Notice in the fine print.

    The reduction in funding is aimed at “re-focusing” the agency’s core mission of “preventing and controlling infectious diseases and other emerging public health issues, such as opioids,” the White House said in its proposal.

    Some programs of the CDC would see a boost in financial support under the proposal, including areas focused on the response to influenza, HIV and tick-borne disease. Additional funds are also available for continuing to combat the opioid epidemic.

  38. Larry Ledwick says:

    Item on CDC anticipating at some future time spread in the US and other western countries.


  39. Larry Ledwick says:

    S.T. Taylor says:
    12 February 2020 at 6:11 pm
    Will it be like H1N1 with ~250k fatalities or the Spanish Flu or even worse???

    Too many variables to know at this time – watchful waiting is the only course of action right now, build your knowledge base so you have good information to base decisions on and then just watch to see what happens. I saw a model last night that predicted 60% of the worlds population would eventually be exposed to it, and so far something like 86% only see something like a bad case of the flu or a bad cold. It is the remaining 14%-15% which are at high risk for serious complications.

    Diseases mutate it could suddenly mutate to a benign disease much like the flu or get more aggressive, or they could find a treatment for the severe cases to close down those very severe cases even before they have a vaccination for it (if ever).

    Like I was telling a co-worker the other day this is like watching an ultra slow motion train wreck, you question is like asking with the locomotive fall to the left of the tracks to the right of the tracks or stay on the tracks? There is literally no rational way to guess which option is more likely.

  40. Larry Ledwick says:

    9 minutes ago

    #2019nCov #China #CGart A drawing by a popular Chinese CG artist. It expressed the Chinese people’s high respect for medical workers. The carnation of pink carnations in China is healing, touching and loving you. The Chinese words mean: To the warrior.

  41. Larry Ledwick says:

    The use of UV sterilization is again getting some traction (note UV light have been long used in surgery theaters, placed high in the room and baffled so it does not shine directly on the people in the room. General air circulation carries airborne dust and particles past the intense UV-c lights and dramatically lowers the count of viable airborne infectious agents.

    It has some draw backs also (special eye protection needed if in your field of view) but it is a very broad spectrum way to lower counts of viable organisms and infectious agents.


  42. Another Ian says:

    “CoronaVirus more infectious, but we *hope*, less deadly. Without closed borders Covid-19 uncontainable”


  43. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting item on using Vitamin C.

  44. M Simon says:

    Chinese Cities Seize Personal Property to Control Spread of Coronavirus

    China also has persistent problems with corruption, despite endless high-profile campaigns against it. The Epoch Times cited reports of local officials already abusing quarantine situations for profit, such as by demanding bribes to enter restricted areas or bypass checkpoints. This misbehavior also calls the effectiveness of China’s much-touted lockdowns into question, since people infected by the coronavirus are no less capable of paying bribes than healthy people.

    The fact that China’s prestige economic zone is passing emergency laws to seize property has been taken by skeptical observers, both within and outside China, as another sign that the epidemic is much worse than Beijing is willing to admit. At the moment, the official line from the Chinese government is that the epidemic will peak in February and will effectively end by April.

  45. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like they changed the reporting criteria, in China going to be a huge jump in confirmed infections if this is correct.

  46. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yep big change
    Total Confirmed
    Total Deaths
    Total Recovered


  47. Larry Ledwick says:

    US military has received a warning order to review pandemic plans and prepare for possible outbreak in the United States and to take prudent actions to prepare for that situation.


  48. Larry Ledwick says:

    food shopping in wuhan

    Food buying behavior is getting more desperate in wuhan

    In the first few days of the lock down videos of shoppers were pretty ordinary although some items were sold out. Looks like people are beginning to realize this may not be over in a few days or a week.

  49. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another Chinese lock down taking place.
    Xhildinho Z
    2 minutes ago

    BREAKING: Zhangwan District in the Chinese city of Shiyan has been put on lockdown due to #coronavirus – BNO News

  50. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another item on shortages (includes a list of things folks in Hong Kong are buying up.
    (hint list of things to add to your list of items to have on hand)


  51. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting item here on age distribution, of confirmed cases, clearly SARS-CoV-2 is an equal opportunity infectious agent.

  52. jim2 says:

    After the big jump in cases, the known-outcome death rate is about 18%. Not good, but better than 26%.

  53. Larry Ledwick says:

    I just noticed a sharp dip in persons near age 61 in those histograms and after investigating what happened in 1958 – 1959 in China I suspect that is a demographic notch created by the deaths during the great leap forward which ran from 1958 to 1962.

    By 1958 private ownership was entirely abolished and households all over China were forced into state-operated communes.

    At the Politburo meetings in August 1958, it was decided that these people’s communes would become the new form of economic and political organization throughout rural China. By the end of the year approximately 25,000 communes had been set up, with an average of 5,000 households each. The communes were relatively self-sufficient co-operatives where wages and money were replaced by work points.

    Spike in world wide deaths due to great leap forward

    The exact number of famine deaths is difficult to determine, and estimates range from upwards of 30 million, to 55 million people.[37][38] Because of the uncertainties involved in estimating famine deaths caused by the Great Leap Forward or any famine, it is difficult to compare the severity of different famines. However, if a low estimate of 30 million deaths is accepted, the Great Leap Forward was the deadliest famine in the history of China and in the history of the world.

  54. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like the Japanese are shooting for 100% infection rate on the Diamond Princes Cruise ship.

    BNO Newsroom
    ‏Verified account
    BREAKING: 44 new cases of coronavirus on cruise ship near Tokyo, raising total to 218

  55. philjourdan says:

    Well I learned today where the name of the class of viruses came from! It was a doh moment when my wife “splained”it to me

  56. David A says:

    Jim says ‘After the big jump in cases, the known-outcome death rate is about 18%. Not good, but better than 26%.”

    I think caution here. The rumor ( ?unable sources) is that China stopped counting low symptomatic patients with positive tests back when the curve flattened. Which, if true, then those cases are just now moving into the danger zone where those that crash, crash hard. ( Big jump in deaths).
    The slope of the curve looks back to logrythmic now perhaps?

    Given all that, the numbers are still likely FUBAR.

    The actual claim was they stopped counting positive tests for those without symptoms. This made no sense, as the word from many doctors and people in lines to enter hospitals, was that only the bad cases were getting in.

    Another possibility, the local CPM were loballing to what they thought their superiors wanted. ( Some were recently fired)

  57. David A says:

    Concerning the cruise ship how many have been tested? Last I heard it was about 450.

  58. David A says:

    Regarding UV light, use of class 3 and 4 lasers is gaining traction for some benefits, so it would be curious to see if there could be some benefits if directed on the lungs for instance?

  59. David A says:

    Regarding age distribution; there appears to be some male domination. ( Eyeball only) I heard that men had more ACE2 receptors. I wonder if there is some decion making from men that could skew this. If you see 10 very sick patients, 7 men, 3 women, and you can only take in say 4, does the male protective nature select more women then equal severity warrants, so he selects two men and two women?

  60. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes they have been reporting that from the very beginning it was about 2:1 in early reports. I believe it is occupational & smoking. In China 74% of men smoke but only 18% of women smoke.
    Add the wear and tear of industrial jobs and poor occupational safety for work related pollutants and you get a cohort more susceptible to a disease that is hard on people with lung issues.

    I can’t prove that but it fits perfectly with what they are seeing.

  61. David A says:

    Per zero hedge ” the number of reported deaths in Hubei alone spiked by 242 to 1,310 (we are still waiting for the official number of deaths across all of China which will likely add quite a few more cases to the Hubei total).”

    So I guess the 1360 was the new ” official ” number for all of China? By guaging China’s lock downs, extreme actions, property confiscation, and all the leaks past their media it still feels likely reasonable to add at least a magnitude to the official numbers.

  62. Larry Ledwick says:

    Concerning the cruise ship how many have been tested?
    There are 3,711 passengers and crew, the 439 tested number is from the 10th so pretty sure they have done more since then, but I cannot find a current number right now.

  63. David A says:

    Thanks Larry.

    Additional points to ponder; https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/sudden-militarization-wuhans-p4-lab-raises-new-questions-about-origin-deadly-covid-19

    Yes Zero Hedge, but it is speculation that is factually based on the history of the Wuhan lab.

  64. Foyle says:

    China’s real population is closer to 1280 million than officially touted 1400million. They have been lying about it for decades, the birth rate is only about 60-70% of claimed. It’s population may have already peaked. Has big impact on their future economic development as working age population will drop dramatically in coming decades. Half as many 5 years olds as 50 year olds. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3018829/chinas-population-numbers-are-almost-certainly-inflated-hide

  65. David A says:

    General question; as the cruise ship TO appears to be very high, has a racial breakdown of the passengers and crew been provided. ( I have not seen it) This would certainly be cogent to the watching world.

  66. Larry Ledwick says:

    I have not seen a specific break down of the details of the crew and passengers or the demographics of the infected cohort. I am sure that ship is going to be an interesting test of the true behavior of the virus. Closed world very good info on their activities and exposures etc.

    A few Phd’s will be awarded for studies of the outcome of that “experiment” – don’t forget there are 3 other cruise ships also in limbo. One that is trying to find a port which I think just got approved for a port call at Cambodia.

  67. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is one breakdown of early patients in Wuhan if you want more precise numbers.

    Keep in mind these patients are biased toward serious infections due to the way the Chinese were only admitting patients who presented symptoms AND tested positive to the virus.

  68. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like they finally caught on.
    2 minutes ago
    Translated from Korean by Microsoft
    #COVID19 Japan (Diamond Princess Cruises situation):

    ‘Corona 19’ Group Infection Sino-Cruise Oath Confirmed 44 New Infections (Total)

    Total number of infected to 218
    Plan to unload after priority inspection of elderly people

  69. Bill In Oz says:

    So far there are 55 infected people in Singapore. Yet Singapore is in the tropics and a warm place.
    Why is the number so high then ?
    A couple of factors could be in play:

    1: Singapore is populated mostly by people with Chinese background who have close contacts with China, with many people flying to & fro between the two places ( similar to Hong Kong ) So for the purposes of this disease Singapore could be counted as ‘Chinese’.

    2: While Singapore is in the tropics, there is an awful lot of cooling & centralised air conditioning in it’s high rises towers where people live & work. This may be lowering the temperature to a degree that the virus can live while also spreading the virus via the air conditioning ducts.

    We will know for certain shortly !

  70. Larry Ledwick says:

    Comparison of several major disease outbreaks.

    Tonights major update with the massive change in counts due to changes in how they define official cases according to Chinese authorities.

    Linear plot of the new numbers

    Same graph on a semi-log plot (note the new numbers take the plot back to the trend line for the earlier part of the plot before they started reducing the daily counts.

  71. Larry Ledwick says:

    If you insert a best fit linear trend line (using Mark I eyeball method) you can see the new data point comes back to very near the general trend after the counts began to stabilize.

    It will be interesting to see if tomorrows numbers come out near that trend line also.

  72. Larry Ledwick says:

    The cashless society folks are obviously going to use this outbreak as a lever to push their magic digital systems.


  73. Another Ian says:

    Now in Bali

    Courier Mail, behind the Murdoch wall

  74. Larry Ledwick says:

    Taxi driver in Tokyo has tested positive for COVID-19

    Westerdam cruise ship which just docked in Cambodia may have 20 infected passengers.


  75. H.R. says:

    I don’t see any dots in Mongolia. They might want to right quick, build a wall.

    Yes, I know. Weird political situation with China trying to control/absorb/Chinafy Mongolia. It looks like the policies instituted don’t involve much travel to Mongolia. It’s also not exactly a tourism hotspot. Otherwise, I’d expect to see at least a dot or two there.

    I wonder if Mongolia will escape the flu?

  76. M Simon says:

    S.T. Taylor,

    More news.

    Coronovirus is Killing People and Commerce in China – Concerns Escalate Due to China’s Actions – Hubei and Wuhan Leaders Replaced

  77. M Simon says:

    From S.T.’s Guardian link.

    Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the World Health Organization seemed also to be at a loss.

    UEA? A very trustworthy source when it comes to fudging numbers.

  78. cdquarles says:

    Re UV lights in surgery suites. I can confirm this, since I’ve recently had eye surgery and an angiogram. Any decent US hospital takes infection control seriously; and it should be obvious why that’s so.

    That said, all numbers being reported are estimates at best with errors. How large and which direction are not currently known and may never be known. Viral testing is rather crude right now, compared to bacterial testing, for instance. You want screening tests to err on the side of sensitivity, risking false positives. You want confirmatory tests to err on the side of specificity, risking false negatives. Take any paper revolving around Bayes factors or p-values with a large grain of salt; especially if they’re lacking proper error analysis and propagation.

  79. Quail says:

    Jan 31 I read that it was UV stable for 4 days, possibly on Lancet. Now I can’t find that info anywhere. Unfortunately I have sick relatives to help today and can’t dig any longer. Sorry about the link-less rumor.

    @Larry Thank you so much for all the info.

  80. S.T. Taylor says:

    A little math – according to the WHO around 153,000 people die each day for various reasons. Based upon pct of world population that means that around 31,000 people die each day in China. However, they probably have better than average health care so we can assume on average less than 31,000 die each day in China during normal times.

    Over the last three weeks, China has implemented ever increasing draconian methods to limit the movement of its population in various regions of their country; built multiple holding locations / triage / hospitals; detained citizens who voiced opposition or doubt; and are now locking/barricading citizens in their homes. They have mobilized their army and guaranteed a significant hit to their GDP for this year due to losing almost 1 full month of productivity for most of the country.

    They are only letting the rest of the country go back to work in small increments and some areas won’t open until at least March at this time – over a month after CNY.

    The largest or second largest economy in the world is losing at least 1/12th of their productivity for 2020. That is huge. Imagine for a second that the US shut down for 1 month… What would that do to markets, economic confidence…

    All this in a country that loses around 31,000 people each day ON AVERAGE. A we are supposed to believe that this is all happening because only another 100-200 additional people are dying??

    My theory – belief – is that something ugly got out of their lab in Wuhan and has a much higher Ro rate then we are being told and has a much higher fatality rate then we are being told.

    We will know in a couple of weeks how bad it is once we see how the disease progresses in nations that are more transparent (Japan) and we get an idea the true nature of the disaster in the Wuhan area.

    Also – like I said yesterday – it is starting to pick up on areas like Shanghai. That is not good for them or the global economic community due to exports, ect…

  81. Larry Ledwick says:

    Late start this morning was feeling poorly last night – not much sleep (don’t worry ate something I should have tossed)

    CDC announces 15th US case

    Have to run to work later.

  82. Foyle says:

    H.R. Mongolia is miserable in winter. -20 to -30°C common. Most mongolians live in Yurts (in townships) still. Development level is low, not a lot of reason for anyone to travel there. Curiously though, Mongolians have close to the highest average intelligence of any country. A real problem for all those who point to environment and development as causes of low 3rd world IQ.

  83. Larry Ledwick says:

    CDC warns that the US will likely eventually see COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) and SARS-CoV-2 to achieve a foot hold for general spread among the public.


  84. Larry Ledwick says:

    A message for the world from Anonymous regarding the outbreak

  85. M Simon says:

    Foyle says:
    13 February 2020 at 7:51 pm

    The harsher the environment the more stupidity is selected against.

  86. Larry Ledwick says:

    How do you control dumb people?


    China is using evidence tape like seals on truck cabs to verify no-one gets in or out.
    (can they still roll down the windows? What about the fuel station attendant who sneezes right in front of the air intake for the rig while fueling.)

    Still good idea but it does have “leaks”
    Some how they are going to have to get food and essential supplies into the cities.

  87. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another cruise ship might be quarantined in Australia Sydney Harbour.

    The Norwegian ship Norwegian Jewel is having a Singapore man tested in Australia.


  88. Larry Ledwick says:

    Evidence that China has been using “modeled data” not real numbers prior to the big jump in numbers yesterday. Predictability of numbers was too high for real data.


  89. Bill In Oz says:

    Australia banned the entry of all persons from China ( except Australian citizens ) about 10 days ago. But many people came here from China for study before that.
    This is an interesting story from ABC here in Adelaide. Members of the local Chinese community have formed a social media group to organise deliveries of foodstuffs and household items to fellow Chinese who are in self isolation quarantine, having arrived before the decision to ban the entry of people from China because of the corona virus.

  90. Compu Gator says:

    Larry Ledwick [said] 13 February 2020 at 4:12 am [GMT]
    Yes they have been reporting that from the very beginning it was about 2:1 in early reports. I believe it is occupational & smoking. In China 74% of men smoke but only 18% of women smoke.

    I agree that’s highly plausible, but I suspect that there’s another significant factor:
    The “1-child-policy” decree, if I interpret the axis annotation correctly, began in 1979. It interacted with culturally deep-rooted attitudes, which favored children who would be best able, as adults, to care for their parents as the latter aged into infirmities. So healthy male newborns were welcomed, and female newborns were not. It is my understanding that the “1-child-policy” aggravated this attitude, leading to widespread infanticide of female newborns. Years ago, I read a news article that the eventual result, beginning ca. A.D. 2000, was a new generation of young Chinese in which for all the Chinese young-adult men of the customary age for starting a family, there exist only 1/2 as many Chinese young-adult women, i.e. 2:1.

    So I wonder if there are significantly fewer younger women who survived the “1-child-policy” to become targets of the Coronavirus.

    I doubt that any objective source on Chinese demographics is available to any amateur observers overseas. Certainly the Chinese Communist Party would have meddled, e.g., in whatever appears on Wikipedia.

  91. Bill In Oz says:

    The SMH, ‘Sydney Morning Hogwash’
    Long ago mastered the art of BS & propaganda.
    Now it looks as if it’s is working
    For the Chinese Communist Party.
    To reassure us Australians that there is
    Nothing to fear in China from the Corona virus disease !

    Hogwash !


  92. Larry Ledwick says:

    Evening major update happened a while ago.
    Total Confirmed
    Total Deaths
    Total Recovered

    Of course now we now most of those numbers we have been closely following were likely generated mathematically rather than actual data.

    We now have 15 cases confirmed in the US.

    Compu Gator says:
    14 February 2020 at 3:30 am
    I would have no difficulty that the one child policy plays apart in that male bias.

  93. Larry Ledwick says:

    Asymptomatic transmission confirmed in the German chain of infections.


  94. Bill In Oz says:

    The BBC seems to have local sources in China beyond the government statistics & lies.
    More evidence of a major cover up and incompetence by the Wuhan province authorities.
    “Coronavirus Wuhan diary: ‘He got a hospital bed three hours before he died’
    What happened to two families in Wuhan

  95. H.R. says:

    @Foyle – Thanks for the reply on Mongolia.

    It seems Mongolia is sort of naturally quarantined in Winter. I’d imagine they have always pretty much stocked up supplies and hunkered down for Winter with that kind of weather. By the time Mongolia gets rolling again in the Spring, the risk of infection will be nil.

  96. jim2 says:

    LL said: Asymptomatic transmission confirmed in the German chain of infections.

    That article also confirms that some (unknown) number of people get the virus and are mildly sickened, then recover. I have to wonder again what part smoking plays in the severity of the disease. The Chinese could have gotten answers to these questions. If they have, they need to tell the rest of us. Yep, Communism is all that is Great and Good.

  97. jim2 says:

    Based on the data from the Johns Hopkins dashboard, the total known outcome cases is 88 with 3 deaths. This is a death rate of 3.4%. Still not good, but way better than 20+ %. As more cases resolve, we’ll get better numbers.

    China is overwhelmed and went off the cliff. In other countries, the diagnosed cases are better controlled. The virus will get into the wild in the US if the symptom-less spread is for real. Still a lot of unknown factors out there concerning how sick a given individual will get.

  98. jim2 says:

    Sorry, the 88 cases are those in countries other than China.

  99. David A says:

    Rud refuses to accept the possibility of an accidental release and appears to accept the official numbers.

    All of us should be less certain of our assumptions.

  100. jim2 says:

    What if cats can become infected? They tend to wander the neighborhood. That could be very bad. What about other mammals? There is so much we don’t know.

  101. cdquarles says:

    Probably not likely cats currently can get infected; though any zoonotic virus potentially has the capability. The same is true of any other mammal. One of the functions of viruses is to cross species and shuttle DNA/RNA while doing it.

  102. Larry Ledwick says:

    Morning all! Felling better this morning, actually got some good sleep last night.
    Twitter is getting saturated with posts. When I got up this morning it told me it had 19,000 new items, so reaching the point were it is very difficult to keep up. From now on will have to be just a quick skim of the recent posts, the “breaking news” phase has pretty well passed at this point.

    1 minute ago
    MoreKlimaZen Retweeted NHKニュース
    A “healthy” man from Aichi/#Nagoya flew to
    #Hawaii🏝️(Jan 28-Feb 7)
    He “cought a cold”, there (Feb 3).
    When he returned to #Japan, he got fever (Feb 8), his condition worsened, so that a #COVID19 test was done (Feb 13).


    1 minute ago
    Replying to @Elitecounter1 @CPHO_Canada and 5 others
    There is no game plan in place for schools, colleges and universities.

    Zero. Other than it’s “low risk”, and it’s not. @DrTedros by his own admission says killer COVID19 is highly contagious through air

    Canadian Gov and public health Ag are willing to “low risk” the public?

    NPR item summarizes some info.

  103. Larry Ledwick says:

    Efforts by DARPA to take a different tack and develop a rapid treatment by antibody injection to get an early form of protection while work is carried out for longer term efforts like vaccines.


  104. Larry Ledwick says:

    Isolation efforts for travelers are impacting airlines as they struggle to deal with suspected cases and protect other passengers.


  105. cdquarles says:

    Immune globulin injections are an old palliative/temporary mitigating treatment for infectious diseases. Efforts like this date to the 1940s, if I am remembering correctly. We should go for it. With today’s culture methods, we likely can do this rather rapidly. A limiter: ensuring sterility and minimizing cross contamination with the cell lines/products used to do the genetic engineering.

  106. S.T. Taylor says:

    China Uncensored Video

    So – must name the disease in a manner that it is not offensive
    And – the outbreak is just beginning…

  107. S.T. Taylor says:

  108. newscaper says:

    The guy at WattsUpWithThat, which I otherwise respect, wrote IMO a dumb article about the corona virus. Basically he gave a bunch of background on viral diseases, gave examples why this one is worse than the flu, then turned around in his conclusion to say not that big a deal after all, apparently because we know how much AGW is overhyped as an analogy.
    Crappy excuse for logic in my book.

  109. Ossqss says:

    @jim2 says:
    14 February 2020 at 5:04 pm
    What if cats can become infected?


  110. Larry Ledwick says:

    Xinyan Yu
    Follow @xinyanyu
    This is war. The #wuhan gov announced today all residential complexes will be sealed up. People need to get permission to exit. My mom told me there’s only one food market in our complex, and she couldn’t even get flour.

    As is typical of twitter found an item that discussed infection paths with COVID-19 but now can’t get back to it after viewing the image.

    Short summary young children (age 10 in the example) can be asymptomatic but still show clinical lung changes (chest xray) due to infection and can shed large amounts of virus without showing significant symptoms.

    Also symptoms of infection route by the eyes (conjunctivitis) suggest you need eye protection in addition to masks when near a COVID-19 positive individual.

  111. Larry Ledwick says:

    Different reference regarding eye protection but it is clearly a risk factor.

    Click to access HPI%20CoronaVirus%20Statement%201-30-20.pdf

  112. Larry Ledwick says:

    Summary of suspected pattern of infections an how it does its damage.


  113. Larry Ledwick says:

    I finally found that link again

    29 minutes ago

    Please see the article published by the medical professional magazine “The Lancet”. Regarding the characteristics of #2019nCoV Wuhan virus, the lungs have been damaged when asymptomatic, and it is highly infectious.
    📣truth Learn more!#CoronavirusOutbreak #COVID19 #coronavirus

  114. Larry Ledwick says:

    Promising results from use of COVID-19 survivor blood transfusions (ie antibody treatment)

  115. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is concerning I wonder what the national cross section of US citizens would look like if you asked that question. You cannot establish public protective measures if the general public is kept completely ignorant of the threat.

    Apomictic geneticst
    38s38 seconds ago

    Replying to @CBCNB @CBCNews
    I have been asking people on the streets about the covid 19 virus in Fredericton and only 2 knew or heard about it …but if another news channel didn’t inform the public that it was in Halifax BC Ontario over 2 weeks ago … and not one mention on the Canadian news networks Now

  116. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like people are beginning to take transmission of COVID-19 via droplets and the eyes seriously. More questions on the same subject in Japan.


  117. M Simon says:

    S.T. Taylor says:
    14 February 2020 at 7:15 pm

    About 7 and 1/2 minutes into the video he says that You.tube does not monitize Corona-19 coverage. It is too controversial.

  118. M Simon says:

    China Is Disintegrating: Steel Demand, Property Sales, Traffic All Approaching Zero

    it is the far more important – for China’s GDP – construction steel sector where apparent demand has literally hit the bottom of the chart, down an unprecedented 88% Y/Y or as Goldman puts it, “construction steel demand is approaching zero.

  119. Larry Ledwick says:

    Wuhan residents describe being under house arrest quarantine for 23 days so far.


  120. Larry Ledwick says:

    Some folks still have a sense of humor – expedient protection.

  121. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not sure I fully trust this assertion, so file this under to be verified by other sources.


  122. Larry Ledwick says:

    Los Alamos claims R0 is near 4.7 and 6.6

  123. Larry Ledwick says:


    The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

    Click to access 2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

  124. Bill In Oz says:

    Larry why are you dubious about the Taiwanese article you linked to above ? I read it and found it scary but believable, given that the Chinese government has massaged the statistics so much ever since this started.

  125. Larry Ledwick says:

    Bill In Oz says:
    15 February 2020 at 5:37 am
    Larry why are you dubious about the Taiwanese article you linked to above ?

    t’s highly possible to get infected a second time.

    A) anonymous sources
    B) If you successfully recover from a disease unless it mutates into a “different virus” immunity should protect you (at least for a few months.
    C) relapse is not the same thing as getting infected a second time. Sometimes diseases briefly get under control and then relapse but the body never really recovered from the first infection.

    Secondary damages due to the drugs used are a different mechanism of injury so not the original disease – I will need a couple other reports of this preferably with some explanation why there is no immunity from the first infection. Also did they demonstrate that the second bought was not some other disease like the flu attacking when the body is weak.

    It just clashes with my understanding of how immunity functions for all other diseases.

  126. Larry Ledwick says:

    If true this is the first warning bell of an upcoming famine shortage of key food products in the locked down cities.

    Wuhan has a population of 11 million that means they need to import 16.5 million pounds of food a day to feed the city. That is a challenge in a broken supply chain.

  127. Larry Ledwick says:

    List of chemical bioicides believed to be effective against SARS-CoV-2.

    Click to access Novel-Coronavirus-Fighting-Products-List.pdf

  128. Larry Ledwick says:


    A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing

    Background: An outbreak of a novel coronavirus, named CoVID-19, was first reported in China on 31 December 2019. As of 9 February 2020, cases have been reported in 25 countries, including probable cases of human-to-human transmission in England. Methods: We adapted an existing national-scale metapopulation model to capture the spread of CoVID-19 in England and Wales. We used 2011 census data to capture population sizes and population movement, together with parameter estimates from the current outbreak in China. Results: We predict that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, we predict the epidemic peak would occur in June. The starting location has minimal impact on peak timing, and model stochasticity varies peak timing by 10 days. Incorporating realistic parameter uncertainty leads to estimates of peak time ranging from 78 days to 241 days after person-to-person transmission has been established. Seasonal changes in transmission rate substantially impact the timing and size of the epidemic peak, as well as the total attack rate. Discussion: We provide initial estimates of the potential course of CoVID-19 in England and Wales in the absence of control measures. These results can be refined with improved estimates of epidemiological parameters, and permit investigation of control measures and cost effectiveness analyses. Seasonal changes in transmission rate could shift the timing of the peak into winter months, which will have important implications for healthcare capacity planning.

    Click to access 2020.02.12.20022566v1.full.pdf

  129. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    15 February 2020 at 6:11 am

    Wuhan has a population of 11 million that means they need to import 16.5 million pounds of food a day to feed the city.

    That is a little over 200 18wheeler truck loads a day. Nat a big call on resources.

  130. Roger Knights says:

    Here are three comments on JoNova’s site (at http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/let-the-coronavirus-disruption-begin-partial-post-hoc-reactive-quarantine-holds-seven-planes-at-london-airport-seriously/) about Rud Istvan’s 2nd WUWT thread on this topic:

    Roger Knights
    February 15, 2020 at 5:29 pm · Reply
    This is the best roundup I’ve seen:

    Wuhan Coronavirus—WUWT Update
    Guest Blogger / 3 hours ago February 14, 2020
    Guest post by Rud Istvan,

    Bill In Oz
    February 15, 2020 at 6:04 pm · Reply
    OK !
    This post by Rud Istvan is vastly improved on his previous post on WUWT.
    He is no longer down playing the seriousness of this disease and how it is spread

    Bill In Oz
    February 15, 2020 at 6:19 pm · Reply
    Three simple scary items from Istvan’s post on WUWT :
    1: Symptomless infection of other people ( Superspreaders !! )
    2: A Rom of potentially 11 !
    3: Damage to the lungs can precede the appearance of typical symptoms like flue, runny nose, fever in some infected persons etc.

  131. Gail Combs says:

    Foyle says:
    “….Curiously though, Mongolians have close to the highest average intelligence of any country. A real problem for all those who point to environment and development as causes of low 3rd world IQ…..”

    Actually it makes sense. Remember Modern humans due to ?farming? have loss ~10% of their brain mass. If you are doing herding in a very harsh environment the stupid and the idiots DIE. If you live in an area that ALWAYS has food available (the tropics) planing ahead is not required and you can afford to allow the idiots to live.

  132. Larry Ledwick says:

    Strict quarantine rules in China – they are basically putting everyone under house arrest.

  133. Larry Ledwick says:

    China is quarantining cash and starting a disinfection hold on cash.


  134. Larry Ledwick says:

    Pretty good evidence that China knew at least by Jan 2 2020 that the pandemic was brewing
    That is the date they locked down a military training academy.

  135. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    While it has little chance of being an escaped bioweapon (very wrong characteristics) that possibility is not zero as it might have been in early development. There is also the very high potential that it was to be the basis of a vaccination defence program. Combine several bits you want to protect against, then make a vaccine; but accidentally escaped.

    One can not just set those probabilities to zero.

    Near zero for bioweapon, but still a positive value due to development arc.

    About equal to natural recombination for a vaccine program escape due to our having very little information about the pathway through either of those processes.

    Nature is a mystery at this stage, and secret lab work is an enigma.

  136. p.g.sharrow says:

    It appears to me that the Chinese government reaction to this epidemic will cause damage to the country far worse then any outcome to the disease. A loss of 2% of the population to this virus would be a sad thing but stopping the economy for a month or two will be a disaster for any Chinese dream of becoming a world power. The population loss would be primarily among the nonproductive segment of the population, but the loss in productivity will be the straw that broke this camels back. The Nations financial house of cards will collapse into economic ruin for a generation. You can count on the Bureaucracy to make a bad situation worse…pg

  137. E.M.Smith says:

    At about 13 minutes, this video cites s pre published copy of a paper saying ACE2 receptor does NOT have variable expression by race or gender but DOES vary by smoker vs not (and the race / gender stats reflect smoking degree).

  138. Stephen Wilde says:


    “All but one of the nine patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus have been discharged from hospital, the NHS has confirmed.
    NHS England and NHS Improvement said that eight people who tested positive for COVID-19 – the disease caused by coronavirus – had left hospital following two negative tests.”

    Businessman Mr Walsh contracted the virus in Singapore while at a business conference before going to the French Alps for a ski holiday, then returning to his home in Hove, East Sussex.
    He unwittingly infected 11 Britons who were in France with him. As well as the five who are in France, one is in Majorca and five are now in the UK.
    In a statement, the group of five who were treated at the Royal Free Hospital and St Thomas’ Hospital in London, said: “All of our group, including the six in other countries, have recovered quickly from the virus having required minimal medical treatment during our time in isolation.”

    So, this really doesn’t seem to be such a serious illness for most as had been thought from the severity of the Chinese response.

  139. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill In Oz:

    As Director of Facilities & I.T. of a 120,000 sq ft facility, I was appalled to learn that, to save energy costs, the normal and standard setting on central HVAC buildings is “10% make-up air”.

    Translated, that means 90% of the air you breath went throughout the building already, an average of about 9 times before it leaks out. Closed offices. Bathrooms. Smoker spaces. Labs and work rooms. You might have special ventilation for some spaces with toxics IF it was added, but a general space with lab benches and soldering station? General air….

    There are gross filters on the air inlets, but nothing effective on small particles on the recirculation (though I suppose my building only represents California mid sized…) so things like new carpet formaldehyde fumes go everywhere.

    I had to fight my AC Contractor to get makeup air cranked to 25%, but then everyone in the company felt MUCH better and happier. More energetic. We were adding about 10% new cubicles and carpet per quarter and that was enough to see early “sick building syndrome” issues. (I did a “bake off” one weekend in one new wing with heat about 110 F that helped a lot; but the biggest win was a 20 minute spray mist of vinegar followed by 20 minutes of ammonia, then ventilate. (Most stuff reacts with either an acid or a base).

    Now think about airborn virus particles and a 90% recycle of air…

    I would hope other places have codes to put effective filters in the recycled air, or at least a UV Light…

  140. E.M.Smith says:


    Everybody dies. Health care does not change that. It changes when you die and from what. So average deaths / year can only change for a little while from new and better heath care, before returning to “everybody dies” and the usual percentages. 1/average-lifespan

    @Economic impact:

    This must burn through the world before we know. Best outcome is 90% of WuHan had some mild illness while the smokers got whacked and skewed the numbers, so by the time that gets sorted most of the world gets over a minor chest cold. Worst case is an unstoppable 20% killer that shuts down global commerce for years of economic collapse. Right now we don’t know where we are on that range.

    We do know China is trying to put a happy face on it and continue the money flow, people be damned, other countries be damned. I’d not put it past the Central Committee, were they facing a 20% death epidemic and 50% economic loss; to see a relative benefit from assuring the rest of the world suffers the same “to maintain relative position”. Be cautious with official China.

  141. David A says:

    Thanks for your open mind E.M. Intial comments here lowered my estimation of the lab responsibility. This article
    “Instead of appearing similar and homologous to its wild relatives, an important section of the Wuhan Strain’s spike-protein region shares the most genetic similarity with a bio-engineered commercially available gene sequence that’s designed to help with immunotherapy research. It is mathematically possible for this to happen in nature – but only in a ten-thousand bats chained to ten-thousand Petri dishes and given until infinity sense.”

    Link to follow

  142. David A says:


    [Reply: Found in SPAM queue, which is odd as it clearly wasn’t hitting a key word or poster issue. -EMS ]

  143. Eric Barnes says:

    @Stephen Wilde

    That’s great news Stephen, but that presupposes there is only 1 strain of the Corona Virus in the wild. That may not be the case.

  144. David A says:

    E.M. I saw the article on smoking, and thought it at least made sense.

    P. G, says “It appears to me that the Chinese government reaction to this epidemic will cause damage to the country far worse then any outcome to the disease…”
    Yes, thought of that, yet that is part of what convinces me that in China at least it is far more dangerous then they are letting on, both R0 and death rate. Also, if that is true, panic would have occurred and created even more disruptions.

    M.Simon, regarding the daily need of plus 200 semi trucks for food alone; perhaps a low estimate as it assumes 80 k full capacity loads. ( What is the averaged weight of loaded food semi trucks?)

  145. David A says:

    M.Simon, I think ? the load payload of most tractor trailers us about 45k pounds. Perhaps 400 loaded trucks us closer to the needed daily requirements.

  146. David A says:

    ” The max weight a trailer can carry is a little more complicated than you might think. The regulations are not limiting how much freight can go on a trailer, but the total weight of the vehicle and also the axle weights. So some vehicles (power unit and trailer) will be heavier than others so the freight they carry will be less. Reefer trailers, for example, tend to be heavier and can carry less. Some light truck/trailer combinations might be able to carry up to 45,000 lbs. Generally, if possible you should budget somewhere between 42,000 lbs and 44,000 lbs for a truck”

    Almonds and Pistachios can self combust if over loaded in bulk
    ( High fat content)

  147. Larry Ledwick says:

    Bill In Oz says:
    15 February 2020 at 5:37 am

    Especially if gamma globulin treatments from survivors are helping the severely ill, that implies presence of antibodies, which would provide some measure of immunity.

  148. Larry Ledwick says:

    Diamond Princes continues to add to Japan’s infection toll as more passengers test positive.
    67 more COVID19 cases on board the quarantined cruise ship,38 didn’t develop any symptoms, This brings the total number of infected people on the ship to 285

  149. E.M.Smith says:

    Per truckloads:

    Note that density matters too. While my rule of thumb for prepping is “one dry pound per person per day”: as survival rations, half that is fine. However, a pound of ramen is much more bulk than a pound of beans, and a pound of butter lettuce is far bulkier than a pound of rice. Then a can of green beans weighs about a pound, but is almost entirely the water, so a fraction of that counts toward your one dry pound.

    Until you know the actual density in dry pounds you can’t really figure the truckloads needed…

    The UN and USA sometimes use a dense food brick for emergency rations. A corn / soy and vitamin concoction that I can’t eat due to the corn… but it packs a lot in the available truck space. IF fuel and cooking facilities exist, simple familiar grains and legumes are best, supplemented with vitamins longer term. Were I planning food shipments in to Wuhan, they would be mostly rice, some familiar beans (gram, lentils, adzuki, or mung for sprouting… whatever they know…) vitamin pills and maybe some tinned meat as an enhancement.

  150. Larry Ledwick says:


    US – California: Person tested for #Coronavirus in San Diego is in ICE custody

  151. Larry Ledwick says:

    The Currency pathway of infection. Chinese officials Central bank’s decision of collecting cash for sterilization or destruction. The #COVID19 can live 4-5 days on paper.

  152. Larry Ledwick says:

    1 minute ago

    #COVID19 may bring all electronic transactions around the globe, since bank notes are suspected for #coronavirus transmission. As a conservative I strongly oppose this trend as it gives governments and big companies huge power to control citizens’ life. No mistake!

    This will be the perfect lever to push for all electronic transactions.

  153. Larry Ledwick says:

    The assertion SARS-CoV-2 can infect you twice appears to trace from a random message from a relative of a doctor


  154. E.M.Smith says:

    As if electronic transaction keypads don’t support viruses….

  155. Larry Ledwick says:

    Cash disinfection (needs to be translated)


    The Chinese People’s Bank will disinfect used banknotes by ultraviolet light or high temperatures. Other measures include the issuance of new banknotes and a ban on cash from circulating from one province to another.

    The People’s Bank of China is withdrawing the banknotes used to disinfect them in an effort to stop the spread of Covid-19, which has already claimed the lives of more than 1,500 people in the Asian country, the agency’s vice president, Fan Yifei, reported saturday.

    New color images show what the coronavirus is like

    “After the outbreak broke out, we began to pay special attention to the safety and health of the population when they use cash, and we took a number of measures,” said Fan, quoted by the Sina portal.

    Another such measure is the issuance of more than 600 billion yuan (more than $85 billion) in new bills. Previously, 4 billion yuan (more than $570 million) in new bills were urgently shipped to Hubei province, where the deadly virus originated last December.

    In addition, the circulation of cash between provinces, as well as within the provinces where the epidemiological situation is most serious, was suspended.
    Meanwhile, used banknotes are now removed for disinfection, which is done by ultraviolet light or by subjecting them to high temperatures. Banks then seal the banknotes and quarantine them for 7 to 14 days,depending on the severity of the outbreak in one region or another, before putting them back into circulation.

    However, banknotes received from hospitals and agricultural markets are stored in isolation and do not return to circulation after being disinfected.

  156. H.R. says:

    E.M.: “As if electronic transaction keypads don’t support viruses….”

    I have a couple of boxes of nitrile gloves that I bought at Harbor Freight. I use them when puttering to keep grease or glue or pesticides off of my hands.

    I’m not sure what the signal will be, but when I get the signal, I’ll be using them for shopping, gas, or any other errand. Also, I figure to be wearing them on the trip home from Florida as I will be gassing up on a major route used by people who have come from about every region, some of which have recorded an instance of the virus.
    I have a paintball mask at home, left there by my son, along with a few tractor-trailer loads of other stuff that he has yet to pick up ;o) I think eye/face shielding will be important.

    As I recall it is an oval, or maybe call it triangular shaped, mask that gives good vision and covers the nose… I think. A paintball to the nose wouldn’t be pleasant so I think it covers the nose.

  157. Larry Ledwick says:

    Tobacco companies are looking at using fast growing tobacco plants to produce vaccines for COV-SARs-2


  158. Larry Ledwick says:

    The mask supply issue – has been brewing for a long time, and one of the casualties of not buying American when it comes to key emergency supplies.


  159. Larry Ledwick says:

    We were talking the other day about how to make expedient masks here is a short video Hong Kong University on how to make home made masks with commonly available materials.

    Looks like 3 layers of common paper towel with an internal layer of Kleenex type face tissue.
    Add a bendable metal strip at the top to allow it to be conformed to the bridge of the nose.

    Also shows how to make low tech face shield.


  160. Bill In Oz says:

    Larry thanks for the follow ups re that Taiwan story.
    Good to know that it is a beat up
    And that persons who recover from Corona Virus disease have immunity

  161. Larry Ledwick says:

    The social impacts and scale of the China lock down is staggering.

  162. Larry Ledwick says:

    File this under unconfirmed rumor at the present time – source cannot be confirmed.
    There may be a type II variant of the original COV-SARS-2


  163. H.R. says:

    @Larry and all re low tech face shields.

    I’m thinking about all the Christmas card boxes with clear flexible plastic box lids to display the card you’re buying and thinking, “A couple of rubber bands, a little trimming here and there, punch two holes, and I have a clear plastic eye/face shield. Tape some paper towels to the bottom and I have a full face mask.”

    Gotta look at what you have around the house on the order of filtration, shielding, formability, puncture friendly, tape friendly, and so on. If I walked through my house and rummaged through my cabinets and drawers with the right mindset, I should be able to come up with a variety of protective measures that would greatly reduce exposure risk. If you can cut your risk to 50% or 25% or 10% or 5%, there’s no reason not to give it a shot and no excuse that “They are sold out.”

    If the new virus hits in your area, no one will give a rat’s ass what goofy looking expediency you come up with. They will be copying you as soon as they get home.

  164. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting – there is a drug that treats a corona virus which only infects cats – can it be a blue print for a human drug? It is also chemically very similar to Remdesivir which has been used in China to help control the infection of COV-SARS-2.


  165. Larry Ledwick says:

    H.R. says:
    16 February 2020 at 1:38 am

    Go down to the stationary store and pick up some acetate sheet protectors or report covers.

    Like you say lots of stuff could easily be re-purposed to provide eye protection.

    I normally wear wrap around sun glasses and have picked up some of the crystal clear shooting glasses for that purpose. If things go to the full protection level needed I will add a large face shield with the shooting glasses underneath.

  166. Larry Ledwick says:

    For comparison some survival times on surfaces for other major virus types.

    (note the type of surface makes a big difference, survival is often longest on surfaces we think of as easy to clean like stainless steel and counter tops, much less on surfaces like clothing and carpet)

  167. ossqss says:

    So, basically if you go to the store, use a full pull over ski mask/hat with goggles. That would probably work as well as many of the other items including just a bandanna across your face. Just don’t wear it in the bank. They frown upon that type of thing.

    Is it just me, or is this getting to the point that the show “The Walking Dead” is becoming non-fiction. Doh!

  168. Larry Ledwick says:

    Russian scientists have a fabric which quickly inactivates many viruses using nano-silver particles.


  169. Larry Ledwick says:

    Asia has high tolerance for medical face masks, but in the west not so much.

    I think over time we could drift in that direction but right now the major media is mostly ignoring COV-SARS-19 and the events in China, I made a quick round of the major media web pages yesterday and if they had any coverage at all it was to use the newspaper jargon “below the fold” and just a side bar item. I thing much of the clueless American public has little if any awareness of the situation.

  170. M Simon says:

    David A says:
    15 February 2020 at 6:07 pm

    Yes. I was going for an order of magnitude estimation 200 truckloads a day or 2,000?

    What else do you NEED besides food, electricity, and water? Not a lot.

  171. Larry Ledwick says:

    IR thermometers are not reliable for testing people’s temperature (mostly a feel good solution to pacify concern)


  172. M Simon says:

    Field expedients in China.

  173. Larry Ledwick says:

    What else do you NEED besides food, electricity, and water? Not a lot.

    Pretty much but I would put them in a different order:
    water, electricity,natural gas (heating and cooking etc. and internet for information), then food (you can go totally without food for 20-30 days if you have ample safe water and minimize activity, about 40 days until you reach life threatening risks of malnutrition.

    The “preppers” will hardly notice, this will be a real life test to check their stock choices against.

    Only time will tell if this does a slow burn through the world’s population or a grass fire like wave of expansion. Although China has made some major mistakes their very aggressive actions are buying the rest of the world time to prepare, learn and plan.

  174. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    16 February 2020 at 3:38 am

    They leave out any discussion of emissivity. Critical in IR themometry.

  175. M Simon says:

    Lies can cause revolutions. Doesn’t Xi realize this?

    Coronavirus: China puts a brave face on economic impact as Xi Jinping still vows to deliver promised goals

    President Xi Jinping has emphasised the outbreak of coronavirus should not stop China from achieving its social and economic goals

    If they lose one month of production overall that is an 8% drop in GDP. How will they grow at 6% with that kind of hole in the budget? And that is not even counting the reshoring many countries wll be doing.

  176. H.R. says:

    @OssQss (ossqss says: 16 February 2020 at 2:25 am)

    That’s kinda what I was getting at in my comment about expedient protection.

    Either go to the store looking just like what you did last month or show up looking like you’re going to rob the place.

    We’re a bit ahead of the curve here as Chiefio denizens, so someone might call the sheriff on us. But in the next month or so, depending on where you are in the U.S. or World, for that matter, full on gonzo made-up-as-you-go flu protection may not seem weird at all.
    P.S. Additionally, regarding “Ahead of the curve here as Chiefio denizens,” I should hope that if the bug shows up in any the neighborhood of any reader here, you will shout it out. If anyone here finds they are within a 1,000/2,000/3,000 km radius or so of you, I’d certainly appreciate the heads up.

    If it shows up in my immediate vicinity, I’ll certainly give a shout out and a warning.

  177. Larry Ledwick says:

    Commentary on China’s lack of credibility regarding information about the new disease.


  178. Bill In Oz says:

    Diamond Princess Update
    Total number of people on board 3700
    Number of people tested 1219
    Number who tested positive today : 70
    Number testing positive with NO symptoms 38
    Number testing positive to Corona Virus so far 355

    Thirty eight people out of seventy were carrying the virus with NO symptoms.

    Herein lies the reason why the Chinese government have imposed such a complete lockdown on Wuhan has the surrounding province.

    Link : https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-16/diamond-princess-coronavirus-cases-70-more-confirmed/11970134

  179. M Simon says:

    Maybe a lab release is not so far fetched after all.


    According to an earlier Xinhua report, a draft of a biosecurity law was submitted to the National People’s Congress Standing Committee for review in October.

    The draft focused on protecting the security of China’s biological resources, and preventing and prohibiting the use of biological agents or biotechnology that may harm national security, the report said. It also addressed issues such as prevention of emerging infectious diseases and epidemics, and biosecurity at laboratories, making public health part of national security.

  180. David A says:

    M.Zumon, I agree on the basic necessities. I was just getting to 16,000,000 pounds of food a day as 400 40,000 pound loads. Perhaps more.

    Curiously I have not heard any real discussion on how farming and necessary transportation is being conducted. Farming, medical, utilities, transpiration requirements for those as well as comunication, fuel supplies, all in full operation. I wonder what percentage of the population that requires.

  181. David A says:

    I wish there was an edit button!!

  182. ossqss says:

    @ HR, I think we will get a heads up if something is upon us, well ahead of time, but delayed if you will by process and bureaucracy. It is already news and known. I read there are 15 military quarantine facilities in the US for purpose. Surely to grow in number sooner than we would like.

    There is no urgency of any sort here to date. That can be good, or bad, if you think about it. I have experienced many precipices of understanding with watching hurricanes. There is no worry in those prepared as they should experience, but when things become increasingly immanent, it quickly becomes a SHTF scenario and the dams break.

    Clear the shelves!

    Many parallels are in play today, but in slower motion.

    I think of things differently at this point in our semi-educated virus time. I am not predisposed to what we know at this point. Could it change, sure. Do I need to go to the extreme with prevention, I don’t think so without a known handicap to vulnerability.

    That said, I was one of those kids that didn’t wash my hands every time I came in to eat. I know!

    If you are diabetic, asthmatic, smoke, cardio issues, immunodeficient, stay safer than average. That is what we know,,, kinda. Just sayin,

  183. David A says:

    As wind and solar are almost useless, due to their intermitancy, I bet those are essentially shut down in favor of baseload production!

  184. Power Grab says:

    Re clear plastic finds that can be re-purposed as a mask:

    The clear plastic packages that bedding (mattress pads, blankets, sheets, etc.) are sold in. Some of them have fairly sturdy plastic zippers that make them reusable. Or if you want to cut them up, that would be easy.

    I’ve been using a mattress pad cover (whole, with its plastic zipper) to hold my out-of-season knitted caps, scarves, gloves, and mittens.

  185. H.R. says:

    @Bill In OZ – That symptomless thing? That’s part of why I posted a some anecdotal info about my D-I-L’s stay in, and travel from China.

    We are close to approaching day 14 since she returned from China (Wuhan, Shenzhen, Shanghai… the Trifecta of exposure). SO FAR, SO GOOD.

  186. H.R. says:

    @OssQss and all – Anyone remember that old syndicated column, Hints From Heloise? That was a column where readers gave tips on using lemon juice for this and a bit of bleach for that and some old plastic mesh or baby food jars and empty toothpaste tubes for the other, long before renewable/recyclable was a thing. It was a continuation of our parent’s depression era mantra of “make do or do without” because they had to.

    Anyhow, I’m not in panic mode at all… yet. I just think we should be getting our minds into “What should I do when the shelves are empty?” mode.

    As Ossqss points out above regarding hurricanes, when the SHTF, it’s too late, so “whats ya gonna do?”

    I have already bought some masks, alcohol, hydrogen peroxide, and canned goods in preparation while everything is cheap and on the shelf. I’m all of $20 in at this point. We’ll be traveling home next month and I don’t know what the situation on the road or on the ground will be like when we get there. The shelves may be bare when we get home.

    So, spread out in these threads on E.M.’s blog, there are some good Hints From Heloise about ways we can improvise protections if/when panic mode comes to our own individual towns. Like Power Grab did just above, mentioning useful things we might have lying around that can help protect us will give us an edge when the shelves are empty.

    I hope people keep mentioning stuff here that can be repurposed as it pops into your heads.

    Use it up.
    Wear it out.
    Make do,
    or do without.

    A “depression era” mentality could be very helpful very soon.

  187. Larry Ledwick says:

    Curiously I have not heard any real discussion on how farming and necessary transportation is being conducted. Farming, medical, utilities, transpiration requirements for those as well as communication, fuel supplies, all in full operation. I wonder what percentage of the population that requires.

    There are numerous videos of small produce sellers having their truck load tossed in the street by the police, apparent you cannot sell to the public home grown produce without some sort of approval. Looks like a period of major disruption and some normal channels are starting to come back on line after meeting government regulations.

  188. Larry Ledwick says:

    Use of private automobiles are now banned in Wuhan except if it is involved in the fight against COVID-19

    Propaganda video with english sub-titles showing how local necessities are purchased.
    (mute the video and just read the sub titles)

    Local police destroying street vendors produce

  189. Another Ian says:

    “Outside China 5% of cases are severe; Singapore may be three months away from running out of hospital beds”


  190. Bill In Oz says:

    I think we need to widen the information base for the discussion of this Corona virus and the disease it causes.
    The South China Morning Post is published in Hong Kong.It is an English language daily staffed by people who are Hong Kong Chinese and who have links into China.
    Here is a link to it’s news today : https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3050848/coronavirus-man-middle-class-hong-kong
    There are a string of articles which provide the Hong Kong perspective and a view into China as well.

    One thing immediately stood out when i looked at the total figures for numbers infected by country : Japan with 407 cases is the second highest after Mainland China. I suspect that the Japanese are VERY worried about the risks of this disease becoming established in Japan. And most of these patients are from the quarantined cruse ship in Yokohama.

    This perspective explains the Japanese government’s policies with regard to the cruise ship anchored in Yokahama !

    Leave a Reply

  191. M Simon says:

    H.R. says:
    16 February 2020 at 7:02 am

    Anyone remember that old syndicated column, Hints From Heloise?


    Fondly – now that you mention it.

  192. David A says:

    While I appreciate some aspects of the recent virus post on WUWT, I found the comparisons to CAGW alarm both insulting and foolish. Steven Mosher of course jumped all over in support of this. I made this comment and a similar one to Mosher…

    Yet when Larry says, “Have you moved to the top of a mountain – cause when Antarctica melts any day now you’ll be isolated from the plague and the rising seas! A twofer!”. it is, IMV, a very poor analogy.

    Whereas just about exactly zero people have been killed or hospitalized by anthropogenic SLR, or any other alarmist CAGW claims, and CO2 us immensely beneficial, this virus has very rapidly killed far more then SARS or MERS, and has a manifesting R-naught in China that is worthy of great concern. Additionally Chinese reaction to this virus is extreme and a real threat to their economy and to the global economy; and the videos leaking out of China, people lined up for blocks trying to get medical aid, people dying in those lines, reports from Doctors in China of 10 plus day hospitalization requirements for 20 percent of the infected, which overwhelms the medical system,
    reports of many dying of this virus never getting added to the infected numbers, reports of many just going home to die, etc, are all real events with exactly zero real world correlation to results of anthropogenic CAGW.

    Therefore it is my perspective that if you wish to make a case that the world has greatly increased its ability to respond to viral epidemics, and that there is no reason to panic, and much of what is published is click bate for readership, then it us best to use less insulting and very inaccurate analogies.

  193. M Simon says:

    Curing the Incurable: Vitamin C, Infectious Diseases, and Toxins by MD JD Thomas E Levy 3rd Edition Paperback – August 1, 2011


  194. David A says:

    Larry, thanks for your indefatigable efforts in finding information, in this case about farming.

    My post about the most recent WUWT article was quoting a different Larry, who often makes great comments and articles. I just disagree with his tact here. As I mentioned Mosher was quick to support his poor analogies…

    Steve Mosher says…
    ‘So many of the comments here are exactly like that on climate activists’ websites. It’s eerie.”

    yup, there is a reason for that.

    David A February 16, 2020 at 5:04 am
    To compare this; reasonable concern about a new virus that has caused a nation of 1.4 billion to put about one third of their population in quarantine and shut down the production Capitol of the world ( good or bad, it is what is) to the CAGW alarminism over an essential trace gas that immensely supports life, is extremely poor judgement.

    Yet from your relentless juvenile comments Mr Mosher, it is not surprising that you would support such an analogy.

  195. David A says:

    Bill from Oz posted this at JoNova.
    Apologies if it was already posted here.

    Diamond Princess Update
    Total number of people on board 3700
    Number of people tested 1219
    Total Percentage of people tested so far : 32.9%

    Number who tested positive today : 70
    Number testing positive with NO SYMPTOMS = 38 persons or 54% !!
    Bugger !

    Total Number on board testing positive to Corona Virus so far 355;
    That is 29% of those tested !
    Bugger !

    Today thirty eight people out of seventy were carrying the virus with no symptoms.
    That’s 54% !
    Bugger !

    Unfortunately we have no information about what percentage of the others infected were symptomless. But it was probably similar to 54%.
    Bugger !

    I suggest that these epidemiological facts became clear to the Chinese government in Mid January.
    I suggest this is the reason why the Chinese government have imposed such a complete lockdown on Wuhan has the surrounding province on the 23rd of January.And has tightened those restrictions in the weeks since.

    Link : https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-16/diamond-princess-coronavirus-cases-70-more-confirmed/11970134

  196. David A says:

    Apologies if posted here already. This is from Bill in Oz at JoNova…

    Diamond Princess Update
    Total number of people on board 3700
    Number of people tested 1219
    Total Percentage of people tested so far : 32.9%

    Number who tested positive today : 70
    Number testing positive with NO SYMPTOMS = 38 persons or 54% !!
    Bugger !

    Total Number on board testing positive to Corona Virus so far 355;
    That is 29% of those tested !
    Bugger !

    Today thirty eight people out of seventy were carrying the virus with no symptoms.
    That’s 54% !
    Bugger !

    Unfortunately we have no information about what percentage of the others infected were symptomless. But it was probably similar to 54%.
    Bugger !

    I suggest that these epidemiological facts became clear to the Chinese government in Mid January.
    I suggest this is the reason why the Chinese government have imposed such a complete lockdown on Wuhan has the surrounding province on the 23rd of January.And has tightened those restrictions in the weeks since.

    Link : https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-16/diamond-princess-coronavirus-cases-70-more-confirmed/11970134

  197. David A says:

    Regarding the Princess cruise ship, how many have been retested, as there are reports of many ? false negatives.

  198. Pingback: 16 Feb 2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 / Covid-19 Corona Virus Outbreak | Musings from the Chiefio

  199. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    Tobacco plants are used for a lot of various virus studies. They have a genome that makes such efforts easier.

    @What you need:

    You need things available in inverse relationship to density.

    Air? Maybe 2 minutes. Heat? A few hours if in very cold environs. Water? A day or two. Food? Up to months. Buy a gas mask first, then make sure you have cold weather gear. Then fill your water storage barrels and get a GOOD water filter. THEN, and only then, get really worried about food stocks. Sure, make sure your kitchen cupboards are full next opportunity, but any “Prepper” stocks come AFTER assuring you have heat and water available.


    I just finished a coast-to-coast run from Orlando back to California. No issues with supplies at any point along the way. I “scored” some rubbing alcohol and face masks N95 in Arizona, and there were more in Alabama. Similarly, there were lots of supplies in grocery stores and such. Once away from California, I even went ahead and started having “Fast Food” instead of living off my car supplies. Simply because there were no onward contagion cases.

    Late Night Radio in New Mexico was even saying “As there are NO cases in New Mexico, no need to be wearing masks” (implied “yet”…)

    I saw all of 2 folks actually wearing a face mask. Both Asian women. One in L.A. Basin at a gas station, staying in her car until a space opened at a pump. Another at a gas stop somewhere in Texas. Zero evidence of anybody doing anything “protective” other than that.

    More on this in a “Trip Report” if I get the ambition up ;-)

    @Per Reporting Outbreaks:

    As I’m dead center of 1/2+ of the Cases in the USA, I’m pretty sure I’ll be the first to squawk ;-) Really. Santa Clara County has declared a health emergency already as a way to start prepping. I’ve got cases (in hospital or in home isolation) both north and south of me. This is likely to be Ground Zero for any outbreak in the USA due to the large Asian population and frequent flights of company folks to China.

    So I’m in “watchful waiting” mode…

    We ARE going to church this morning, but at the first case “in the wild”, we do the lock down thing. Prepped and ready, but not engaged just yet…

  200. David A says:

    Sorry about the double post above.

  201. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    You will likely enjoy the vidio in this posting:
    16 Feb 2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 / Covid-19 Corona Virus Outbreak

  202. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like Japan my finally have cases not directly traceable to the Diamond Princess.

    [Flash Report] Confirmed five new coronavirus infections in Tokyo ★ 2 http://itest.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1581842786/-100

    The other issue that is going to be of major concern in Japan is their aging population demographics the folks most at risk are in that older age cohort.

    This is likely going to generate some heartburn. Of course there is the question if this is real or faked conversation but based on what we know I would not be surprised if this is true. We will know in about 21 days when cases in the wild can no longer be hidden.

  203. Larry Ledwick says:

    President Trump at the Daytona 500 today, takes the Beast for a lap.

  204. E.M.Smith says:

    That National Geographic link up thread pops a popup “share your data to read more”. Reloading it and stopping the load early stops the pop.

    After the SARS outbreak, the World Health Organization reported that the disease typically attacked the lungs in three phases: viral replication, immune hyper-reactivity, and pulmonary destruction.

    Not all patients went through all three phases—in fact only 25 percent of SARS patients suffered respiratory failure, the defining signature of severe cases. Likewise, COVID-19, according to early data, causes milder symptoms in about 82 percent of cases, while the remainder are severe or critical.

    That implies actual cases are about 4 to 5 times the reported cases that went to hospital and got tested.

    It is also hinted that attacking the chain of events at each step can reduce severity. Perhaps enough to have an easy time of it.

    So lots of vit C D and E to reduce initial infection and replication.

    Then cytokine storm supression:
    Lower omega-6 raise omega-3, increase polyphenol ( nuts especially walnuts, brassicas, whole grains), red fruits and berries likely purple too, dark green and yellow leafy and veggies, lots of onions and garlic, green tea, red wine chocolate, turmeric also in mustard, keep your magnesium level up)

    Good lung health to reduce ACE2 receptor levels, and potentially antivirals if things start getting bad.

  205. Stephen Wilde says:

    Of the 8 UK and 5 French positives plus the super spreader who recovered it seems that none required more than minimal medical intervention whereas one would have expected 2 or 3 to have become severe on the basis of the above.

  206. E.M.Smith says:

    You need a larger sample size to have valid statistics. Near 1000 is good. At small sample sizes, unusual patterns are common. In the limit case, you flip a coin once and WILL get 100% one result.

    That said, given the much higher rate of smoking and air pollution in China, and ACE2 expression: I’d not be at all surprised to see much lower levels of serious disease in The West.

  207. M Simon says:

    It looks like my decision to quit smoking on 26 May 2019 was a good one. It had a heart attack. Some people need convincing.

  208. Stephen Wilde says:

    Yes, but I mentioned it as a hopeful sign anyway in light of all the pessimism. The next critical step is to see whether the trend continues with Westerners infected in the Yokohama cruise ship experiment.

  209. E.M.Smith says:

    @M. Simon:

    IIRC, 6 months after quitting, lungs are significantly better with cilia regrowth and better function well along.

    @Stephen Wilde:

    I figured you knew the stats limits, but stated it for the others in the audience.

    Yes, The Forbidden Experiment will give some very good data.

    I hope to see near 100% recovery with early and complete diagnosis and treatment. Or maybe just valid stats with a 1% or less mortality. Folks on cruises ought to have few co-morbidities.

  210. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like it will be difficult to control spread of COV-SARS-2 if this sort of spread is typical.


  211. Gail Combs says:

    I did this for the other website and thought you guys might want more info on the woman who told her friend there were 1000+ cases in 35 states but does not want to test for the disease.

    She is head of the National Center for IMMUNIZATION and Respiratory Diseases
    She is likely a Senior Exec or equivalent (SES is NOT disclosed to the public)

    The CDC is one of the major operating components of the Department of Health and Human Services. The head of the Department of Health and Human Services is appointed and confirmed by the Senate.
    The CDC Director, is appointed by the president and does not require Senate approval.


    What else can we learn about this woman who decides whether we will be warned or not?

    The National Center for IMMUNIZATION and Respiratory Diseases… “….formerly known as the National Immunization Program until April 2006, is charged with responsibility for the planning, coordination, and conduct of immunization activities in the United States…..” — WIKI
    “….Since beginning her public health career in 1995 as an Epidemic Intelligence Service Officer in the Deputy Director for Infectious Diseases (DDID), Dr. Messonnier has held a number of leadership posts across CDC and within NCIRD. [ National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases]

    She played a pivotal role in the successful public-private partnership to develop and implement a low cost vaccine to prevent epidemic meningococcal meningitis in Africa.More than 150 million people in the African Meningitis Belt have been vaccinated with MenAfriVac since 2010, with remarkable impact…..”

    She is a captain in theEpidemic Intelligence Service
    “The Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) is a program of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Established in 1951 by Alexander Langmuir, it arose from biological warfare concerns relating to the Korean War.” — WIKI

    “EIS officers serve on the front lines of public health, protecting Americansand the global community,while training under the guidance of seasoned mentors. When disease outbreaks or other public health threats emerge, EIS officers investigate, identify the cause, rapidly implement control measures, and collect evidence to recommend preventive actions.”

    She is a (Non-voting) Member of ’Vaccinate Your Family’ The website of the Vaccinate your family is a member of the WHO-led project Vaccine Safety Net (VSN). The Vaccine Safety Net is a global network of websites, established by the World Health Organization, that provides reliable information on vaccine safety. I can find nothing on who the donors are.

    So she is very pro-vaccination, connected to WHO, possibly has more allegiance in that direction than to the USA.

  212. Gail Combs says:

    Given the SHTF about McCabe, one of the questions should be is she also Obama SES?

    As of 2015, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had 10,796 employees. 29 are Senior Executive Service.

    CDC organization: 

    And what do you know, there are 29 heads plus the appointed CDC Director in the organizational chart. So the likelihood of Nancy Messonnier and the rest being Senior Executive Service is close to 100%.

    Is the CDC union??
    Well Health and Human Services is.
    AFGE Local 1923, is the largest federal union in the country “…representing approximately 30,000 employees nationwide that are employed in the Social Security Administration, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (formally HCFA), Veterans Affairs, Department of Defense, and the National Mediation Board….” (So the Mediation Board is unionized too.)

    Back to Nancy.
    ”…She served as Deputy Director of NCIRD from October 2014-March 2016…”

    ”…In 2018, Nancy Ellen Messonnier was a Medical Officer at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia. began working at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2017 with a starting salary of $260,567….”

    So it looks like she moved up to the director job in April 2016. Her salary class is ”RF-00 under the code for use by hhs only.” In other words it is hidden since the serfs are not allowed to know.

    This woman does not give me the warm fuzzies. I think the likelihood that, thanks to requests for test kits, she has a pretty good idea of how many and where suspect cases are. So I would rate those screen shots as very likely true.

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