Chinese Novel Coronavirus Outbreak – 2019-nCoV

Here’s a video from an MD doing an overview of Corona Virus properties, the novel one from China 2019-nCoV, and what you can do as protective behaviours. It largely comes down to “the usual” universal protective measures + self quarantine. A good mask, eye cover, gloves and avoid people who might be infected (which is everyone…) then wash your hands a lot.

He does state that Corona Viruses can survive for up to 5 days on surfaces and that people can be without symptoms and still be infectious for 5 days. That’s a really bad combination as it means you have to wait 10 days to find out just how many people were infected by your “one case” locally. That means we’ve got 4 places in the USA with confirmed or probable cases and we’ll know next month how many, if anyone else, has caught it from them… This also means that if reports from China that 100,000 may be infected are true, we’ve got up to 10 more days to go to find out how many that 100,000 infected but are not yet showing up at clinics. In short, our statistics lag several days and up to a week+ behind reality.

OTOH, it does look like the folks showing up at hospitals are the small percentage that have horrible reactions and that there’s every possibility large numbers of folks just get a bad respiratory cold symptom set. That’s encouraging as it means most likely most folks won’t have a significantly bad outcome. It also means a whole lot of low symptom folks may be spreading this thing everywhere. So a pandemic is almost certain, even as it isn’t a horrible killer for everyone.

The death risk comes from cytokine overproduction attacking and destroying lung tissue. The “cytokine storm”. There are ways to reduce this risk, but not by much. IIRC there are some early stage of development treatments in the system, but as of yet rarely used. DIY may be the best available. Avoid chocolate, drink green tea, take vitamin C & E and more things from the list here:

You don’t need to avoid chocolate just yet, only once symptomatic ;-) but taking your vitamins now is a good idea.

This discussion started here (h/t Larry Ledwick):

so folks looking for the history of the discussion can start there.

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
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250 Responses to Chinese Novel Coronavirus Outbreak – 2019-nCoV

  1. David A says:

    Reposting from previous thread

    there is just one problem: the much needed quarantine and lockdown were far too late, because as Wuhan’s mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday during a press conference, about 5 million residents had already left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday. As the SCMP reports, many of Wuhan’s residents had already left the city for the holiday, while others rushed out after the lockdown was announced on Wednesday night.

    Add in mild cases and hidden carriers, possible two week incubation ( reports on this all over the board)

    Sorry, forgot link ( Zero Hedge post)

  2. David says:

    Regarding the death rate, per an earlier post, many dead are assigned viral penmonuia as the cause, as they lack adequet testing facilities.

    Only in retrospect ( comparing average flu death vs thus one) will we have a better idea of the death rate and RO.

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    Look at the response in Canada from the “officials in charge”. Basically “don’t worry, be happy” and they are only going to look for passengers within 3 rows of the guy on the airplane who had it. Since it can survive on surfaces for up to 5 days, how many other passengers sat in his seat or the ones next to it? How many surfaces did he touch? How many people walked through the mist of infective droplets from ordinary speech?

    Then figure it will be 5 to 10 days before all those infected are truly “ripe” in the statistics… So by the time Canada realizes what it’s got (literally) on its hands, it will also be too late to have a quarantine. Probably the same in the USA as we have 4 proven or suspected cases. Seattle-Tacoma, Los Angeles LAX, Chicago, and somewhere in Texas. All from folks flying in from China. I can tell you from personal experience back in the Bad Old Days with smoking allowed on airplanes that “particulates” from one part of the cabin circulate to all of the cabin. Just like you can’t escape the smoke, you can’t escape exposure to viruses in an enclosed space.

    So this thing is already “out of control” and we won’t know how far for another week.

  4. Larry Ledwick says:

    Jumping over here for my 2019-nCoV posts – thanks E.M.

    A new crisis map has shown up.!/vizhome/Reporton2019-nCoVOutbreak/ConfirmedCases-Dashboard

    The old one I have been watching the last couple days (appears to updated about noon China time (about 6:00 -7:00 pm MDT)

    The wiki page which seems to be getting updated earlier than the others but as you know being wiki not sure how reliable.

  5. Larry Ledwick says:

    Dashboard from yesterday at about 8:00 pm MDT

  6. Larry Ledwick says:

    Reddit china flu page

    Study on recent notable pandemic events and related papers on the R0 numbers

    British Medical Journal article – possibly suggesting incubation period prior to beginning of immune response about 4 days – other sources suggest typical onset of symptoms and apparent illness about 8 days with range of possibly 2 – 14 days.

    Click to access 3000165.pdf

    Plot of early reports

    Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China

  7. Larry Ledwick says:

    It appears copper surfaces may be effective at inactivating this class of viruses.

    Enveloped viruses are often susceptible to environmental stresses, but the human coronaviruses responsible for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) have recently caused increasing concern of contact transmission during outbreaks. We report here that pathogenic human coronavirus 229E remained infectious in a human lung cell culture model following at least 5 days of persistence on a range of common nonbiocidal surface materials, including polytetrafluoroethylene (Teflon; PTFE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ceramic tiles, glass, silicone rubber, and stainless steel. We have shown previously that noroviruses are destroyed on copper alloy surfaces. In this new study, human coronavirus 229E was rapidly inactivated on a range of copper alloys (within a few minutes for simulated fingertip contamination) and Cu/Zn brasses were very effective at lower copper concentration. Exposure to copper destroyed the viral genomes and irreversibly affected virus morphology, including disintegration of envelope and dispersal of surface spikes. Cu(I) and Cu(II) moieties were responsible for the inactivation, which was enhanced by reactive oxygen species generation on alloy surfaces, resulting in even faster inactivation than was seen with nonenveloped viruses on copper. Consequently, copper alloy surfaces could be employed in communal areas and at any mass gatherings to help reduce transmission of respiratory viruses from contaminated surfaces and protect the public health.

  8. Larry Ledwick says:

    China State Department travel advisory.

    If you must travel to Wuhan, you should:

    Avoid contact with sick people.
    Avoid animals (alive or dead), animal markets, and products that come from animals (such as uncooked meat).
    Wash hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer if soap and water are not available.
    Older adults and travelers with underlying health issues may be at risk for more severe disease and should discuss travel to Wuhan with their healthcare provider.
    If you traveled to Wuhan in the last 14 days and feel sick with fever, cough, or difficulty breathing, you should:

    Seek medical care right away. Before you go to a doctor’s office or emergency room, call ahead and tell them about your recent travel and your symptoms.
    Avoid contact with others.
    Not travel while sick.
    Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when coughing or sneezing.
    Wash hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer if soap and water are not available.

    Please see and for further updates.

  9. David A says:

    @Larry, if the majority of the cases and deaths are not assigned correctly to the disease, ( severe lack of testing facilities with the required testing kit) then those maps are hopelessly out of date – useless to the point of being dangerous. Likely two magnitudes low.

  10. ossqss says:

    From the various sources I have read, the very young, elderly, chronically ill, and immune deficient are the most vulnerable to severe life threatening reactions.

    I am going to experiment with a beer shielding technique (I wonder if I could get a grant if I said it was CAGW/CC research?).

    I propose to drink adequate beer over the test period to see if I avoid infection by dilution and blood alkaholinity (add that to your spell check) changes. It will not be done with the Jim Beam Copper Lager Budweiser product that HR forced me to consume (way too expensive).The test period shall be 1-12 months or more dependent upon budget constraints (wife) and will be documented through the recycling center.

    Just doing my part to help with societal safety :-)

  11. David A says:

    @E.M, the Canadian response appears very irresponsible.

    If one third of a city of 15 million left the city in the 4 to 5 days before the shut down, and 10 million are locked in ( for how long) then feeding them alone is a very challenging logistic crisis.

  12. Larry Ledwick says:

    Partial update of numbers on the 2019-nCoV dashboard (about 8 hours earlier than full update last night) Sudden change in slope of confirmed cases either means partial update or incomplete reporting, or massive change in behavior of the virus due to control techniques or mutation.

    I am going to go with partial update until we see what happens near noon local time.
    Local time in Wuhan China is 01:42 in the morning right now.

  13. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another tracking map has popped up.

  14. Larry Ledwick says:

    Cities across the world who are receiving airline flights from China

  15. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is weird – the Hong Kong protesters have been very intelligent and responsible in their protest behavior – this smells like a total nut case or a false flag by authorities to brand them as dangerous reactionaries putting the city at risk. (not to mention source is RT so could be pot stirring to create more chaos)

  16. Larry Ledwick says:

    Some interesting tidbits

    * 2,081 confirmed cases and 56 related fatalities
    * Travel decreased 28%
    * Beijing postponed the spring 2020 academic semester.
    * $1.6b for medical supplies

    Today’s @JHSPH_CHS 2019-nCoV update has some worrying bits
    – 16% of cases severe
    – Secondary spread in Aus, VN, MAS
    – Longer incubation than SARS (up to 14d)
    – Ability to infect while asymptomatic/incubating
    – Major PPE shortages in CN

    [evidence of asymptomatic infection]

  17. David A says:

    Older 2015 stats, mostly large aircraft;
    “During this year’s peak July 1 to Sept. 20 time period, CAPA calculates that four major Chinese carriers — Air China, China Eastern, China Southern and Hainan — will send 2,028 flights to the U.S. per week, compared to 1,853 a week from U.S. airlines.”

    I suppose the US carrier planes fly back, so about 4 k flights per week is what 4,000 x 350 from China to the US Weekly?

  18. Julian Jones says:

    Simulated Coronavirus Outbreak 6 Weeks Before First Case in Wuhan : Selected moments from the Event 201 pandemic tabletop exercise hosted by The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY.

  19. jim2 says:

    RE: CV case acceleration. Part of this could be that people thought they just had a common cold, flu, or other virus; but upon hearing about this decided to report to the doctor.

  20. E.M.Smith says:

    Here’s that Canadian “report” by authorities that I was talking about. Nearly 50 minutes and the volume is a bit low, but may become an interesting “case study” in the next few weeks if things go sideways in Canada…

  21. E.M.Smith says:


    Resveratrol is one of the materials shown to reduce cytokine levels, so you might want to also conduct a study on “Wine as cytokine storm preventative”… and “prepare” accordingly! ;-)

  22. Larry Ledwick says:

    FYI I stopped by the local Walgreens this morning while running errands they are completely sold out of face masks.

    Sounds like medical equipment companies will need to ramp up production and clean out the backstock in the warehouses.

  23. E.M.Smith says:

    A Fox news report talked about the 2 confirmed cases in the USA but also said there were 63 suspected cases being “investigated”. OK… so what does that mean? Are these folks from China or just anyone with sniffles? In any case, 63 of them is just not good. The USA may already be past the point of effective control.

  24. Watcher of the road says:

    Im waiting for Greta Thunberg for advice. I’m sure she’s gonna save us all

  25. ossqss says:

    @Larry, the purpose of a surgical mask is to prevent the surgeon from discharging from his mouth or nose onto the patient. I would say, and have read, that a surgical mask has very little to no impact on protecting against a virus that is airborne. Maybe it will stop some large droplets from a cough or sneeze, but that would be about it as it is not an airtight mask by any means, nor does it cover the eyes. If someone wants to go that route, get a gas mask and a body suit IMHO.

  26. Larry Ledwick says:

    Right now they have confirmed 4 cases.

    3 minutes ago
    There are now 4 confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV respiratory illness in the US: Washington State, Chicago, Orange County and LA county in California. Same goes for some of our other mega cities densely crowded neighborhoods (China Town San Francisco would be a natural starting point given the population almost certainly has numbers of people who visit China regularly?)

    Just wait until someone carries it into the homeless groups in San Francisco and the poor neighborhoods of LA etc. Then about 10-12 days later it will go ballistic.

  27. E.M.Smith says:

    Texas A&M has a presumtive case.

  28. M Simon says:

    I have some text at this link, discussing things like doubling time and weekly increase.

    Current Conditions In Wuhan 26 January – Chinese video English subtitles.

    So roughly cases go up by a factor of 25X every week. Doubling time is 30 hours. If everyone in the US gets infected and the death rate is 2% Expect 6.6 million deaths. Almost all in the last week.

    Real epidemiologists are more conservative and say 200K to 500K at an R0 of 2.0 . I need to look that up.

  29. Larry Ledwick says:

    Oh crap if these numbers are right China is screwed, especially if this virus has a long asymptomatic infectious stage which appears to be the case.

    Backgrounds: There has been a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia outbreak in China since December 2019, and which spreads internationally. This is the first study to quantify the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak. Methods: Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 21, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI. Findings: The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) associated with 0-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. With rising report rate, the mean R0 is likely to be below 5 but above 3. Conclusion: The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10), and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.

  30. ossqss says:

    RE> Resveratrol

    Have not been able to stomach wine since an incident long ago with Mad Dog 20 20 and Boone’s Farm Strawberry Hill.

    Yes, I know I know. I was young and had no taste to speak of.

    Adding roasted peanuts to the daily regiment. Task completed :-)

  31. Larry Ledwick says:

    ossqss says:
    26 January 2020 at 8:11 pm

    Yes depends a lot on the specific primary mode of infection. Small droplets you also need eye protection.

    Surgical masks are mostly to protect others (sort of like a mechanical herd immunity), n95 masks are too restrictive to wear for long periods of time and most people do not wear them properly (lots of air bleed around the edges.

    n95 work well for short periods of high risk proximity if worn properly (ie nurse going in a room to change a bed pan).

    I think masks mostly serve as a visual reminder not to touch your face and to serve as a social bonding signal that you recognize the risk and helps people avoid unnecessary contact or aerosol generating activities like sneezing, yelling or talking loudly.

    There is a reason the professionals wear full body protection.

  32. Larry Ledwick says:

    CDC briefing coming soon.

  33. E.M.Smith says:

    So where’s a “Bunny Suits R Us” when you need one?

    1/2 ;-)

    Me? I have a CBW Gas Mask, full face… but need to find it….

  34. Larry Ledwick says:

    Now we are entering the window of incubation periods and testing delay to start seeing confirmed cases in the US.

    Now 5 cases confirmed, latest in Arizona.

    Donna Young
    18 minutes ago
    #CDC reports 5th case in Arizona.
    All 5 #nCoV2019/#2019nCoV in people who had traveled to #Wuhan

  35. E.M.Smith says:


    MD 20-20 and Strawberry Hill are NOT Wine. They are properly categorized as noxious intoxicants (personal research many decades ago… 8-{

  36. E.M.Smith says:

    What they need to do is track down every person who has arrived from China in the last 4 weeks and test them, their family, and anyone they have had contact with (work, school, etc.) They won’t do that as it is too many people. So they will not effectively stop the epidemic becoming a pandemic (given the R0 value and asymptomatic transmission).

    It is likely already way too late.

  37. ossqss says:

    Some interesting reading on the study of other studies on transmission rates.

    Starting to see other news on RO values in the 2.6 up to 5.4 range, but with lots of caveats wrapped around them.

  38. Larry Ledwick says:

    CDC Response
    CDC is closely monitoring this situation and is working with WHO.
    CDC established a 2019-nCoV Incident Management Structure on January 7, 2020.
    [This means they have been watching this develop for 2 weeks now]
    On January 21, 2020, CDC activated its Emergency Response System to better provide ongoing support to the 2019-nCoV response.

    On January 23, 2020, CDC again raised its travel alert for the coronavirus outbreak. The travel notice for Wuhan City was raised from Level 2: Practice Enhanced Precautions to Level 3: Avoid Nonessential Travel. CDC also issued a Level 1: Practice Usual Precautions for the rest of China.
    CDC also is conducting entry screening of passengers on direct and connecting flights from Wuhan, China to five major airports: Atlanta (ATL), Chicago (ORD), Los Angeles, (LAX) New York city (JFK), and San Francisco (SFO).
    CDC issued an updated interim Health Alert Notice (HAN) Advisory to inform state and local health departments and health care providers about this outbreak on January 17, 2020.
    CDC teams have been deployed to support the ongoing investigation in Washington and Illinois to support the ongoing investigations of the two cases in the United States.
    CDC has developed a real time Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (rRT-PCR) test that can diagnose 2019-nCoV in respiratory and serum samples from clinical specimens. On January 24, 2020, CDC publicly posted the assay protocol for this test. Currently, testing for this virus must take place at CDC, but in the coming days and weeks, CDC will share these tests with domestic and international partners through the agency’s International Reagent Resourceexternal icon.
    CDC uploaded the entire genome of the virus from the first reported case in the United States to GenBank.
    CDC also is growing the virus in cell culture, which is necessary for further studies, including for additional genetic characterization.
    CDC Recommends

  39. M Simon says:

    Hand washing. Civilian and surgical. The surgical ones cover a little about disinfectants
    Wash your hands – 3 minute video and more.

  40. David A says:

    If the Wuhan reports from Doctors in the hospital’s and others are correct then we have no idea of RO value or mortality rates.
    Why; because tens of thousands of potential cases are not even being tested. Because it takes days to almost two weeks for deaths to be reported. ( And then only in cases identified as Coronavirus.)

    IMV authorities should be assuming the hgh end of the RO WAGS.

  41. M Simon says:

    It is likely already way too late.

    That is my estimate too. The OL has been panicked for a couple of days, so I had to blog it. For a change she is somewhat philosophical. Cast your fate to the wind. And wash your hands.

  42. E.M.Smith says:

    In finding that Canadian video again I got to listen to it again. They specifically state the are assuming that a person must be symptomatic to have transmission. Given others observing this is not the case, it will take a while for the Canadian group to get on board and effectively do followup and contact tracing.

  43. M Simon says:

    Generating epidemic curves. – a 10 minute lesson

  44. David A says:

    In general I try to resist the emotional appeal of news, left right and in-between. Yet the understated death and infection numbers, and the strong China Government reactions, plus the videos of petrified nurses and doctors, as well as their testimony are of great concern.

    So I decided to read The Guardian, as a negative truth barometer. This article, written with an air of calm reason, is them downplaying the epidemic.

    Yet just below the end is a complete alarmist plea for funds to stop the evil Trump administration. ( Not good).

    It appears Military moving into Wuhan may have stopped the leaking videos.

  45. David A says:

    Regarding the Canadian response, that is a likely example of why China posting the low case numbers and fatality numbers is potentially very dangerous.

  46. Larry Ledwick says:

    Not impressive right now but thought I would archive a US centric image for later comparison as confirmed cases grow in the US..

  47. Larry Ledwick says:

    Xi Jinping blocks all tourist travel from his country, vows to win the battle to contain the outbreak.

  48. Larry Ledwick says:

    HR that lockdown on tourist travel might affect your D-I-L in China, she might want to touch base with the US embassy and let them know she is there and find out her travel status under those new guidelines.

    Send her our concern and hope it all works out well!

  49. p.g.sharrow says:

    It appears to me that containment is already too little, too late. Next bet is stay healthy, take vitamin C and L-Lysine. Be careful about a sever”cold” that gets worse as pneumonia is the real killer here.
    As this thing moves through the population, people’s own genetics will modify it’s propagation into something less dangerous…pg

  50. Larry Ledwick says:

    If I am reading this map correctly (to see map key click on menu icon upper right) it looks like Shanghai and Hong Kong both have had a recent huge increase in suspected cases.
    Orange (Dark Goldenrod color) rings outside red orange dots indicate suspicious cases.

    That implies that lots of folks are getting screened and advised to self quarantine.

  51. H.R. says:

    Larry L: “HR that lockdown on tourist travel might affect your D-I-L […]”

    Thanks. Larry. When we talk to our son we’ll find out if she is stuck in a contagious environment until the all clear is given or not.

    She is very intelligent and China savvy. Her father is “connected” and *ahem* well off. Mrs. H.R. and I have been waiting for real news about the situation and her plans. She may actually choose to ride it out to protect her parents. We don’t know.

    Anyhow, we’ll pass along the advice to contact the U.S. Embassy, now that she’s a U.S. citizen, in case she needs a little diplomatic muscle to help her do what she needs to do; either leave or stay.

    I’m not 100% sure that she realizes that she has some U.S. government backing now. She wasn’t raised that way, so it’s probably not a natural, logical thought to her. She was raised to keep her head down so as not to attract attention from the CCP, which happened anyhow (bit of a story there).

    Thanks again, Larry. I’ll pass it along through our son. It can’t hurt a darn thing to do so and may help a lot.

  52. H.R. says:

    @E.M. – Makes me regret being retired. Wish I could call in on Monday with the Coronavirus.

  53. Larry Ledwick says:

    Should be getting today’s numbers out of China soon it is 09:00 local time now and some numbers are showing up on various sources.

    Last nights numbers were. 2118 total with 2062 in China, llink below gives higher numbers for China at :
    Wuhan Virus
    Mainland China 2454 …80
    Hong Kong……….8 .. —
    Macau ………….5 .. —
    Taiwan …………4 .. —
    Rest of Asia …..26 .. —
    Europe …………3 .. —
    North America …..6 .. —
    South America ….– .. —
    Australasia …….4 .. —
    Rest of the world .– .. —

    WHO guidance on nCov (down load pdf)

    The #2019nCoV update for Jan. 27 is out from China’s National Health Committee. Big jumps, big numbers:
    – 2744 cases (including Hong Kong, Taiwan & Macau)
    – 80 deaths
    – nearly 5800 suspect cases (suspect cases mean something here)
    – 461 severe cases.

    National Health China page (currently not responding probably getting hammered)

  54. Larry Ledwick says:

    Experts saying the outbreak may not be containable and this virus my sustain spread around the world over time.

  55. philjourdan says:

    Re: MD 20-20 and Strawberry Hill (and Thunderbird)

    The government of VA classifies them as wines. But I agree, no wine connoisseur would.

  56. Larry Ledwick says:

    Dr. Dena Grayson

    As the number of cases of #coronarvirus in #China surges by 50% in just 24 hours, Chinese officials now report that people can spread the virus BEFORE having symptoms.

  57. Larry Ledwick says:

    We are starting to see confirming reports of “plague class response to deaths” with urgent cremation of bodies at doctors orders immediately after death.

    Muyi Xiao
    8 hours ago
    MoreMuyi Xiao Retweeted 端傳媒 Initium Media
    This article from @initiumnews, which includes interview with a cremation center in Wuhan: just one night at one center, they cremated more than 30 bodies, most of which were directly from hospitals died from ”pneumonia” but never had a chance to be diagnosed as #2019nCoV.

    Translated from Chinese by Microsoft
    In addition to the #新冠肺炎 confirmed list, there is a group of uncounted patients, some of whom have died. ⋯

    His mother went from symptoms of infection to death and cremation, all in just ten days. The doctor demanded that the night of death be cremated immediately; the funeral home stipulated that the special period should not be allowed to engage in farewell, the body should be quickly cremated, “I do not know if the mother under the nine springs, will blame us?” 」

  58. Larry Ledwick says:

    Exponential growth is finally becoming obvious the numbers will likely explode in the next few days inspite of the failure to record many deaths due to the 2019-nCoV virus, if incubation period is 10 days it has been at least 2 incubation cycles since word first got out about the disease outbreak Dec 31 2019 (probably first major spread event happened a couple weeks before that for total of at least 4 incubation spread cycles.

    China is going to pay a fearful price for this outbreak.

  59. Larry Ledwick says:

    CDC travel advisory discourages all non-essential travel to Hubei Province, China

  60. Larry Ledwick says:

    Appears several countries are setting up airlift evacuation plans for their citizens.
    Coverage is very confused so won’t post much on this.
    Seeing lots of push back from folks at home (basically don’t bring infected into our country)

    Only way governments are going to be able to make this fly (pun intended) is to hop them out to a quarantine zone of their own and hold them for 2 weeks or so to see if they have any infectious people.

    12 hours ago
    Replying to @Iyambre1 @AndrewHolnessJM
    I see the US and French government have already began contacting their citizens within these cities and providing them either airlift from China or bus rides to other provinces where their citizens will still have the OPTION of booking their flight tickets. Our citizens need us.

  61. Larry Ledwick says:

    The plot at the end of this graphic is a classic exponential growth curve for a pandemic. This is going to get ugly in China and any other place it gets a substantial foot hold. Advanced countries like Japan, the US, and Australia can probably keep a lid on their local cases as long as they can keep a wild card infectious person out of their high density poor inner city areas.

    If it gets a foot hold in the Mexican Barrios of Mexico or in California it will blow up containment in short order.

  62. E.M.Smith says:

    I hope this is just an artifact of the small sample size and skewed statistics.

    By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%] of 41); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]). Median age was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0). 27 (66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market. One family cluster was found. Common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38). Dyspnoea developed in 22 (55%) of 40 patients (median time from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days [IQR 5·0–13·0]). 26 (63%) of 41 patients had lymphopenia. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest CT. Complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]) and secondary infection (four [10%]). 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients had higher plasma levels of IL2, IL7, IL10, GSCF, IP10, MCP1, MIP1A, and TNFα.

    Am I reading that right? 15% lethality?

    I have a hydrocodone in me for a muscle cramping nerve squash so I’d like a check on my reading…

  63. Larry Ledwick says:

    Asymptomatic spread is pretty well confirmed with this item.
    Clearly show potential for several days of symptom free while infectious.

  64. Larry Ledwick says:

    15% lethality of those sick enough to get admitted to ICU, so not representative of the whole cohort of those who come down with the disease (some of which may be very mild or symptom free)

    It would be interesting to see if those with high organ failure and cytokine storm reactions share a common gene sequence??

  65. E.M.Smith says:

    As I read it, the 15% is 6 out of 41 confirmed, not out of 13 admitted to ICU…

    Watching a video now claiming 4 in Australia and Canada now at 4.

  66. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ahh yes 6 of 41admitted to the hospital those admitted to ICU (6 of 13) had a 46 % death rate.
    (don’t go to ICU ;)

    But those admitted to the hospital are still only a fraction of the whole population who developed the disease.

    Numbers will have to get big enough that the authorities cannot skew them with simple techniques. At those reported R0 numbers even an over all lethality of 3% will be horrendous.

    Last couple days cases and deaths have grown at 35% per day, preliminary numbers I am seeing look like the last 24 hours is about 40% growth.

    I want to compare apples to apples so waiting for the validated numbers from that dashboard map to do the figures for today.

  67. Larry Ledwick says:

    Colorado Department of Health is living up to its usual tepid performance has two tweets on the 24th about the suspected case they are monitoring and absolutely no updates or status info past that. No one wants to talk about it. CDH was painfully political when I worked for the state probably still is only worse. If this stuff gets into the homeless crowds in sanctuary cities like Denver, San Francisco, New York, Chicago etc. it will run wild and be unstoppable in the inner cities.

    All you need is one asymptomatic drug user sharing tokes or needles with his buddies and you have a big mess very quickly.

  68. Ossqss says:

    I understand there seems to be an expected model varience of impact from East to West. Sighted was basic diet variation, societal hygene, and possible influence of vaccination on transmission. I guess there will be some things to review in reanalysis.

    I would say until we get verified info from China, 10’s of millions in quarantine, I hold out hope for the best.

    I wonder how much of a role the instant internet makes in todays world on all sides of this equation?

  69. Larry Ledwick says:

    Surrounding countries are starting to lock down travel from main land China.

  70. Larry Ledwick says:

    I wonder how much of a role the instant internet makes in todays world on all sides of this equation?

    That will be debated and studied for decades, my take, it has allowed interested citizens to get a lead on official actions by 24-48 hours or more. Health authorities in the US have not issued any significant preparedness guidelines but empty shelves for certain products says a sizable fraction of the population is taking self directed action to prepare themselves for long term quarantine if necessary and to mitigate exposure risk.

    It will force some government actions a few days earlier than they would have happened without social media so my initial reaction is it will be a net plus.

    I am actually quite surprised the twitter universe is doing a pretty good job of shutting down alarmist stuff and trying to get out good info to all who are interested.

    I know personally there are a lot of things I have seen that I chose not to pass on because they were a bit over the top.

  71. llanfar says:


    RE> Resveratrol

    Have not been able to stomach wine since an incident long ago with Mad Dog 20 20 and Boone’s Farm Strawberry Hill.

    Yes, I know I know. I was young and had no taste to speak of.

    Adding roasted peanuts to the daily regiment. Task completed :-)

    Organic blueberries at Costco. Big carton and always fresh due to the high turnover.

  72. E.M.Smith says:

    Interesting English language video “man on the street” Wuhan, 9 hours ago. Looks largely deserted on the streets.

  73. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    The Washington State case was identified on Tuesday, 21st. The issue might become a bit clearer by Monday the 27th.

    Larry posted at 5:29 pm

    Consequently, copper alloy surfaces could be employed in communal areas and at any mass gatherings . . .

    I will get several pennies – still copper clad, I think – and start using them as “worry-beads.” My wife seems to get something every December, so maybe will see that she does the same or gets a copper bracelet.
    About 70 years ago my mother wore a copper bracelet and asked the doctor if it would help her arthritis. He answered: “It probably won’t hurt any.” Little did he know in 1950!

  74. Larry Ledwick says:

    The large roller suitcases are a good idea for walkup shopping if transportation is shut down.

    I would probably use a 2 wheeler and a plastic tote but would be a major pain since all the stores near me are down hill and I would have to drag all that crap back up the hill to get home.

    If possible the Vietnam war era freight bicycle is another option. Take a large sturdy bicycle and hang back packs on it.

  75. Larry Ledwick says:

    A necklace made of short segments of copper tubing could be used like a rosary or worry beads, or just worn and fingered after touching something.

    Yes pennies are still copper clad, then there are all your spent brass after chasing off the muggers.

    In small quantities copper is harmless but too much can cause problems and interfere with some nutrients.

  76. Nancy & John Hultquist says:

    There are just under 50 murders per day in the USA [44.4 in 2018].
    I’ll predict this virus (in the USA) will not get to that level.

  77. E.M.Smith says:

    Per groceries:

    Much easier to stock now via car than drag a suitcase later (though clearly if on the road, the suitcase wins). Bought another $200 today, so no shopping for me for a few weeks. We’ll be taking the food storage system for a test run :-)

    The local COSTCO had NO dry beans and Smart & Final had no lentils, so I think the dry bean stortage is showing up. I bought 16 cans of Bush’s Baked beans and 8 of refried so good for a couple of months of beans. 24 pack of ramen cups that I like. 20# bag of rice ($9). Then about 2 weeks worth of chicken and lamb and eggs.

    I’ll worry about leaving the house in a week or two after better data exists. Probably next Sunday when the spouse wants church “we’ll talk”…

    Per copoer: zink copper alloy works a lot better. Probably best to make your worry beads from brass pipe fittings… or buy sone really cheap fake gold jewlery ;-)

  78. Ossqss says:

    I have a can of cold galvanizing spray if anyone wants to give it a try? Not sure if it showers off well, just a though if we are talking of pennys. Hey, it could be gold in a SHTF plan ;-)

  79. Larry Ledwick says:

    If growth rate in cases continues at current rates (about 30% per day ) we will reach that number before 25 days elapses (assuming R0 does not change much – but the current multiplication rate in China only applies to a collapsing system)

    Hopefully we can stay ahead of it but there is really no way to tell at this point.

  80. Larry Ledwick says:

    Shanghai is enforcing 14 day home quarantine measures for people who have recently passed through or come from Wuhan China.

  81. E.M.Smith says:

    Despite the url text, it is updated. Now 5 confirmed including 2 in my State.

    A fifth US case of coronavirus has been confirmed after two new patients tested positive in California and one patient tested positive in Arizona today.

    Health officials say that both California patients, one in Orange County and the second in Los Angeles County, had recently returned from the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, China. Officials confirmed a fifth case in Maricopa County, Arizona. No other information was immediately available about that patient.

    Two other cases were previously confirmed in Chicago and Snohomish County, Washington, while Canada confirmed its first case Saturday in Toronto.

    The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said that the infected person presented themselves for testing after feeling unwell, and are ‘currently receiving medical treatment’.

    So count rising by the hour in the USA.

    Note the LAX passenger arrived from Mexico City, so Mexico is likely to go up. May stop the migrant problem…

  82. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    27 January 2020 at 1:20 am

    That says a 50% increase in 1 day. 1.5^7 = 17X in a week. Other reported numbers I have seen indicated about 29X a week.

    The lower number (17) says everyone on the planet will be infected in 6 weeks. Given the slower rates of infection as more of the population is infected. I’d say it will be over in about 6 to 8 weeks. The wreckage may take the rest of the year to clear.

    One good thing. Cold season is cold. And the weather is warming up. Locally at least (90mi W of Chicago).

  83. M Simon says:

    My wife was at Sunday School at our Temple today and ran in to doctors. (one infectious diseases). They said that masks were useless (except as a reminder not to touch your face) and Wash your hands – 3 minute video and more.

    Ordinary soap is OK. Antiseptic stuff – better.

  84. Larry Ledwick says:

    M Simon says:
    27 January 2020 at 3:52 am

    Yes but I think that is more a case of catching up with the problem than real increases. The last couple days of announced numbers have hovered around 35% more or less.

    As you noted epidemic exponential growth only occurs early in the epidemic, the proper name for it is a logistic growth curve as it is limited by the total number of people still available to infect.

    That means the growth slows down after the initial surge as more and more people either recover and become immune (effectively creating herd immunity in the population ) and the number of people who are still susseptible shrink to near zero.

    As a result the logistic curve looks like a stretched out S. Right now we are at the early part of the exponential up sweep as the infection gets a good grip on the population and there are large numbers of carriers and abundant susceptible people left to infect.

    Growth will go linear in a few weeks / months.

    The Spanish flu epidemic did its worst damage in weeks 14 – 26, I suspect this virus will do the same but be just a bit earlier so the worst time if that proves true will be something like late February and March.

  85. Larry Ledwick says:

    Okay we finally got the update on that dash board map.

    2794 total cases vs yesterday’s total cases of 2116 ( 2794/2116= 32% growth)
    80 total deaths vs yesterday’s total deaths of 56 ( 80/56 = 42% growth)

  86. Pingback: Classical Values » Regular Updates On Corona

  87. H.R. says:

    I’m not sure what to make of my risk here while snow-birding in Florida.

    Home is a University town with a fair number of Chinese students. It’s also a bit of a manufacturing town, so there is a good bit of business with China and the attendant travel back and forth by the Chinese suppliers and American buyers. There is some actual risk at home.

    The particular location I’m at here in Florida, midway between Clearwater and St. Petersburg, doesn’t seem to be a Chinese tourism or Chinese settlement hotspot. The Asian population in my immediate neighborhood is absolutely Laotian with a smidge of Vietnamese. I’m sure there is a ‘Chinatown’ somewhere in the Tampa Bay area, but it’s nowhere near me to the best of my knowledge. I am just not seeing it around my area.

    Regardless, I’ll be washing and sanitizing my hands frequently and avoiding crowds. We don’t do family destination attractions Like Busch Gardens or Disneyworld, so I’m unlikely to be exposed to tourists who come in from high risk areas and who are in the area for a week or two (lotta lotta of those people here).

    I do think the Mrs. and I will be facing significant risk when we return home in March. The Wuhan escapees and those from other areas in China that they have come in contact with will have brought the virus in concerning numbers to my neck of the woods a few weeks before we get home.

    I guessing we’ll be back home just in time for the virus to pop out of the oven in our city. I’ll be on double vigilance then.

  88. E.M.Smith says:

    By March, this will be shown to be under control and no reason to panic or you will know to drive to the desert of Nevada and stay in the camper for a month,..

  89. julian jones says:

    It’s the economic costs that should also be of concern. The John Hopkins projections on CV (posted @ 26 Jan 6.28pm) suggest severe disruption, huge stock market falls etc.

    All for the want of a simple therapy that apparently is very effective. Garlic or better as Allicin, excellent protection against all viruses.

  90. p.g.sharrow says:

    One of the factors that puts the Chinese at greater risk is their poor air quality that damages the ( skin) membranes of the respiratory system, thereby increasing their susceptibility to infection.

  91. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    27 January 2020 at 4:14 am

    I mostly agree. With growth rates that high. It only varies things by a few weeks. The beginning of March is about 5 weeks from now. The theoretical peak for a 1.5X per day growth rate is the second week in March. (growth in unlimited medium meets actual population) which says the actual date of a declining response will be 8 to 10 weeks out. The graph you posted showed 1.5X a day.

  92. David A says:

    If the reporting of cases takes 2 to 10 days, and the facilities to diagnose cases is woefully inadequet, and many dying of this virus have a presumptive cause of death listed as viral penmonua, then how can anyone reasonably extract an accurate RO number or fatality percentages??

  93. Larry Ledwick says:

    how can anyone reasonably extract an accurate RO number or fatality percentages??

    That may be the point – by doing what they are doing they are obfuscating the death toll, hoping to get this wet cat back in the bag, but it isn’t going to work. Like all totalitarian governments they are looking for brute force solutions that keep them in power. They don’t really care how many will die.

    In fact given China’s population they could probably loose a couple hundred million and not notice as far as their economy is concerned.

  94. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well here it is confirmation from someone in a position to know.
    The Wuhan outbreak of 2019-nCoV is Waaaaay bigger than the official numbers.

    Key takeaway so far
    1, Wuhan is estimated to have over 25,000 confirmed cases and over 43,000 infections
    2, Wuhan lockdown doesn’t really help to stop spreading in other major cities in China
    3, Chongqing can be the most affected,followed by Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Shenzhen

  95. Larry Ledwick says:

    This sounds like useful information to the virologists but I have no clue how to use this info.
    Throwing it out for the community to chew on. It might give a clue about how rapidly mutation is happening and help them date the development??

    Interesting hypothesis that this outbreak is older than suspected but was misdiagnosed as severe influenza and typical seasonal pneumonia etc.

  96. Larry Ledwick says:

    Evolution of the R0 estimates as the outbreak matured

  97. Larry Ledwick says:

    It appears the R0 estimates are stabilizing and calculations with different methods are coming up with similar values near 2.6
    Dr Kevin Purcell

    Follow Follow @kevinpurcell
    MoreDr Kevin Purcell Retweeted Ronan Kelly
    2744 cases
    80 fatalities
    2.9% “mortality rate”
    Still about 3%.

    An under estimate from the known cases given statistical censorship bias (they haven’t had time to die yet) but we also don’t know the number of mild cases yet.

  98. David A says:

    If the 2.6 RO calculations are based on official government numbers, ( which appears to be the case) and the reported 45 k to 90 plus thousand cases in Wuhan are correct, those R0 numbers are very wrong and extremely dangerous to any other nations planned response to this evolving potential pandemic.

    Just two days ago we had what appeared to be legimate videos out of Wuton of medical responders breaking down, of dead patients next to live patients in hallways, of Doctors lamenting that there were 90,000 plus patients and hospitals were helpless and out of supplies. At that time the official government numbers were under 1700 patients, ( IN A CITY OF LIKELY 300 PLUS HOSPITALS )

    And the government was rushing to build two more 1000 bed plus medical facilities, sending in the military, quarantine placed on the city and then the entire Providence, shutting down all urban traffic, and that quarantine is rapidly growing and extending to all of China. It is my estimate that all the videos coming out of Wuhan two days ago were stopped by the military and the situation and panic there has only gotten far worse. The city is reportedly out of food. ( In modern just in time delivery systems the caloric in the store count is about 3 days of supplies). If the patient count was growing at 30 to 40 percent daily there is likely a complete systemic collapse in Wuton now, with unknown numbers not even going to the hospital’s.

    Yes, if 200 million Chinese citizens simply disappeared, then maybe their economy could survive. Yet their economy cannot survive such an epidemic. The economic train wheels are allready locking down. The human reaction will crush their economy, and precipitate dramatic global impacts.

    Iran boasting about their fissionable nuclear material is barely a blip on the screen now. The impeachment lite scam is revealed as the poorly acted circus side show of bitter small politicians, potentially meaningless next to this crisis.

    Although, if this becomes a global panic, I will be deeply and profoundly grateful to have Donald Trump at the helm of this nation.

  99. H.R. says:

    p.g.sharrow: “One of the factors that puts the Chinese at greater risk is their poor air quality […]”

    Absolutely. Our daughter-in-law is always a respiratory wreck when she returns from her China business trips… always. We usually don’t see her for about two weeks after she returns from China because she is resetting her sleep clock and she is a sneezing, snuffling, coughing mess from the pollution, and sometimes from a bonus cold or other respiratory illness.

    She pretty much self-quarantines when she returns to the States until she is back to her U.S. self.

  100. llanfar says:

  101. llanfar says:

  102. M Simon says:

    llanfar says:
    27 January 2020 at 12:32 pm

    I doubt that is from UK CDC. I think it is deliberate disinfo.

  103. rhoda klapp says:

    We don’t have a CDC in the UK. Anything would come out from the European centre or from Public Health England. And that thing looks sooooooo fake.

  104. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    27 January 2020 at 8:41 am

    A natural R0 of around 2.5 is all you need to run a nuclear reactor. All those prompt neutrons.

    Let us look at a 33% increase per day. About 7.3x per week.
    10 weeks 460 million increase. If we are starting from 1,000 infected today. The whole world is infected. In fact the whole world was infected in week 9. Now compare that with my 6 to 8 week estimates with a 17X per week increase.

    I’m looking forward to the after action reports.

  105. E.M.Smith says:

    BBC reported 1/2 million medical staff dispatched to Hubai Provence. You don’t send that much staff for 2000 sick people.

  106. E.M.Smith says:

    This is maddning. A sweep through a bunch of the usual news channels has the USA ones all fixated on the impeachment farce. Nothing about 2019-nCoV or China. That is near criminal negligence. TDS ahead of probable lethal global pandemic health crisis.

    Between government complacency letting plane loads from Wuhan wander off into the general population and media TDS Fixation; we’re not doing what must be done to stop the disease spread and prepare for the damage and quarantine.

  107. cdquarles says:

    Remember what I said earlier. Reminder: medical tests suffer from false negatives (bad right now, in the exponential growth phase) and from false positives (bad later, as we approach the tail of the logistic curve). It is far better, when dealing with a bad infectious disease to quarantine early and often. Otherwise, it can get out of hand. The dead hand of oppressive government can be deadly, in more ways than one.

    Another reminder, the logistic curve peaks. Are we before or after that peak? We don’t know yet. The logistic curve is the sum of *two* exponentials, a positive one and a negative one. The positive one dominates early. The negative one dominates later.

  108. llanfar says:

    Thank you M Simon and Rhoda Klapp: I posted that first thing when I saw it this morning without checking. I need to work on that (coffee first… then online).

  109. Larry Ledwick says:

    Morning all, just getting up, here are my morning image captures of the Wuhan dashboard for this morning near, minor update on the total count over night, major update will come out this evening near noon local time in china due to the differences in time zones.

    Adding a capture of the EU zone – right now thankfully blank

  110. E.M.Smith says:

    China TV America POV

  111. Larry Ledwick says:

    There is also this wiki page which seems to be kept pretty up to date.

  112. MarcusZ1967 says:

    llanfar says:
    27 January 2020 at 12:32 pm

    Taken directly from John Ringo Black Tide Rising series…

  113. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting look at search trends world wide.

    adam news
    10 minutes ago
    CDC Telebriefing: Update on 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will provide an update on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus response.
    Monday, January 27, 2020 at 11:30 a.m. ET

    At this point it is simply a waiting game, current official numbers are really nothing special compared to a normal flu season but many are concerned that current official numbers do no match with the extreme quarantine actions of the government in China and that the real situation is far worse that officially acknowledged.

    Normal flu-related deaths are estimated to have ranged from 12,000 to 56,000.
    The estimated U.S. death toll during the 1918 pandemic was approximately 675,000

    Until US deaths attributed to the 2019-nCoV exceed (or appear likely to exceed) those numbers we will not know for sure if this is anything special. But based on the Chinese extreme isolation precautions of locking down enter cities of ~40 million people sends a very strong signal that they know something we do not (at least publicly)
    So take the precautionary steps you think are appropriate, this might turn out to be a very useful drill on pandemic preparedness in the US and other countries outside the primary infection transmission zone but “might be” is not a good planning assumption based on the numbers I have seen if true R0 is greathan 2.6 and true mortality is greater than 3% we are talking about a pandemic comparable to the 1918 Spanish Flu event which killed millions.

    A look at typical seasonal flu death tolls

  114. Larry Ledwick says:

    Quick look at how R0 is calculated and he weaknesses of various methods especially early in an outbreak when you are guessing based on similar situations.

    Unfortunately my vacation time is over so will not be able to watch things quite as closely as I have when I was on personal leave, but at this point the outline of what is going on is pretty well documented and we just have to watch the tally to see what is going on.

  115. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is really an apples to watermelon comparison, given current numbers on 2019-nCov are early development of pandemic vs very old well reported historical out breaks, but gives some useful benchmark numbers for future reference. When official cases substantially exceed the SARS and MERS numbers (or 20 weeks down the road) it will be a bit more useful to revisit the comparable tallies.

  116. ossqss says:

    Update (1150ET): Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the Director of the Center for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), spoke on behalf of the CDC. During the press conference, she said that the US had identified 110 people who are under observation and being tested for the virus. While 5 cases have already been identified in the US, another 32 have definitively tested negative.

  117. E.M.Smith says:

    Stefan Molyneux interviews by phone a ” friend ” in Hong Kong. A bit conspiracy theory on origin, but with the interesting bit that locals knew this was started back in October and the Government were hiding the numbers. This would validate the earlier transmission date that I said I doubted due to the rapid rise of cases. This IMHO lends credence to both.

    He also quotes the 15% lethality and likely from the same calculation with the same data problem (many mild cases not in the statistics, only hospitalized cases in the denominator). But it does give the local Hong Kong POV.

  118. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L.:

    That exponent evolution graph is encouraging in that the exponent is decreasing, but a worry in that it is still large and the rate of decrease slowing.

    Per the genomic epidemiology: it basically shows each genetic group (clade) and is good because it has not mutated much. Unlikely to have a superbug version (yet) and hopefully very slow rate toward one.

  119. corev says:

    I have a friend in the UK working at a major University. They have recalled all employees traveling in SE Asia, and are having them work from home for 14 days.

  120. Larry Ledwick says:

    Updated time line of the development of the 2019-nCoV outbreak

  121. E.M.Smith says:

    Spouse just did the final “get s month of anything you need” run, plus gloves, masks…. Well, three different drug stores were already sold out of the N95 masks. Somebody is aware at least.

  122. E.M.Smith says:

    We found N95 disposable masks at Home Depot and now own a small box of 5 for $15.

    They were almost sold out and the guy resocking 3 boxes (of which we took one…) said:
    “… because of the virus”
    So clearly in Silicon Valley some people are paying attention.

    He also said yesterday an Oriental guy came in and bought a lot, likely to send TO China.

  123. Larry Ledwick says:

    Current situation in Wuhan

  124. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    27 January 2020 at 5:18 pm

    How good is the underlying data? Is there a coverup? A delay? Difficulty with verification?

    Why is the data so clean? I’d expect a lot more noise esp at the beginning.

  125. Larry Ledwick says:

    Arthur Vallejo
    8 minutes ago
    Replying to @ningmengzaizai @mystifyme @iamramizxrami
    President Trump has offered President Jinping any form of assistance that he deems useful. Right now, the whole world stands together ready to fight and defeat this terrible 2019-nCoV.

  126. Larry Ledwick says:

    The data is complete crap, probably 90,000 to 100,000 actual cases but the Chinese are not even bothering to test some people (most likely older that they don’t expect to survive)

    One story of a 65 year old woman went to the hospital 3-4 times got some generic medicine and sent home, when she died the doctors insisted she be immediately cremated and then her family was told she had been contagious when she was sent home. was that due to system over load, or lack of understanding at the time that she had it? Who knows!
    Her official cause of death was pneumonia not the Wuhan corona virus.

  127. E.M.Smith says:

    The system requires a positive test to add a patient to the count, and at least one report said they ran out of test kits…

  128. Larry Ledwick says:

    Counts updated a bit early tonight. May be a partial update – China has now turned into a big red blob.

  129. Larry Ledwick says:

    I saw a comment that it takes two positive tests or at least a second approval from higher authorities to tally a confirmed case.

    Bavaria has now reported a confirmed case so we have entry into Europe now as well.
    We will discover a lot of Chinese expat communities we did not know about I suspect in the next few days. The announcement I dread is when we get reports coming out of Central Africa of cases, I think given Chinese investments there it is highly likely someone flew out and back to Africa for their holiday.

  130. Larry Ledwick says:

    They can’t keep facemasks on the shelf in Boston (or more likely any where else)
    I stopped at Target this morning to pickup a few things and over heard a man asking about face masks and the pharmacist telling him they were sold out. I told him to check on amazon as some sellers still had them last I checked.

    I am sure shipments are flying out of warehouses all over the world right now.

  131. E.M.Smith says:

    We’re set for a month or 2 lock down, if it comes to that. Hopefully “the kids” listened to me and prepped too.

    CBC is now reporting a 2nd presumptive case. The wife of the guy who was only home one night then went to the hospital. Remember that she was sent home to “self quarantine”. .. so hope she did a good job of it.

    Just heard that the 1000 or so folks the USA is going to evacuate from Wuhan “will be screened when they debord the plane in San Francisco”… Oh lucky me… Want to bet it is the same protocol of “no fever? Go home, call us if you get symptoms”?

    So sometime in the next week I get 1000 folks from virus central dumped out 50 miles from me. Then a bunch will likely scatter over the whole country.

  132. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well this gives a whole new meaning to the phrase “eating weird sh*t”

  133. Larry Ledwick says:

    What they should do is fly them to Midway Island or one of the remote Aleutian Islands and hold them there for a 14 day quarantine before the return to CONUS. I understand the US embassy people will be checked prior to boarding then when they land. Not sure if there are any pending plans for a remote quarantine site. But that is what I would recommend as a disaster planner.

    I am surprised someone has not come up with a finger stick antibody check.

  134. Larry Ledwick says:

    This morning I stopped off at Target and picked up some Isopropyl alcohol(91%) some Lysol disinfecting wipes and a large bottle of hand sanitizer for our support folks that have to have direct contact with company employees and their personal computers (high touch items like keyboards and mice). Then placed an order for purchasing to pick up additional of the same, including some spray bottles of spray disinfectant, ( I prefer the hand sprayers rather than aerasol cans since you have more control over how much you get and it is cheaper. That way they if need be, at least have ready access to a way to reduce their risk from having to have up close and personal contact with lots of people and their work areas.

    Any of you who work (or have worked) desktop support know what is going to happen, someone is going to put in a trouble ticket and a support person will go down to their desk 10 minutes after they sneezed all over their keyboard and only learn the person is sick after being in their cube for 10 minutes when they start coughing.

    (But I have this project I have to get out today, I will stay home tomorrow)

    I wonder how many companies are even thinking about things like their sales staffs who will be flying all over the country and shaking hands with dozens of folks a day during presentations etc.

    What is the stranger contact profile of their workers where they will unavoidably be placed in uncontrolled situations like elevators etc. with unknown strangers.

  135. Annie says:

    Larry Ledwick @1121pm 27th Jan 2020: That post by Helen Chen is heartbreaking. The people of Wuhan do not deserve this. The situation there sounds terrible.

  136. Larry Ledwick says:

    Ho – boy big update still early from prior days. 4475 confirmed cases and 107 deaths now on the Wuhan virus dash board page.

  137. Larry Ledwick says:

    This is a very scary image.
    3 minutes ago
    @lookner #AgendaFreeTV #WuhanVirus
    New #2019nCoV infections keep skyrocketing. Looks already worse than #SARS and will go beyond it just in couple of days.

    40 million ppl in closed cities. Numbers will rise rapidly but then again they try to isolate it from the rest of the world

  138. Larry Ledwick says:

    Growth outpacing predictions as this time.

  139. Larry Ledwick says:

  140. E.M.Smith says:

    There is a blood test kit, but it is being used by hospitals to sort patients, not on asymptomatic airplane passengers. I’d guess due to limited production.

    So present protocol will have 350 people on a jet, say one is infective. This will at a minimum expose 3 rows each way. Say it’s a 9 seat wide jumbo, you have about 3 x 9 x2 + 8 = 62 highly exposed. Say only 6 of them get infected. Now they have at most 18 hours of infection time before debording. Highly unlikely to be symptomatic and most likely not making antibodies yet either.

    They get asked “any exposure?” And checked for a temperature, then sent on their way.

    3 days later the first guy has symptoms and they start a contact trace. Day 5 they check the 6 folks… Who have now had 5 days to infect those around them…

    That “fan out” of 1 to 6 is a very tough exponential to beat, especially when playing catch-up.

  141. Compu Gator says:

    The U.S.A. did have domestic screening & quarantine sites, notably Ellis I. (N.Y.|N.J.), Angel I. and maybe Alcatraz I. (S.F., Cal.), but they were later converted to government-administered historic parks at the behest of “conservationists”. I’d agree that doing so was better than handing the desirable sites over to real-estate developers, but the average citizen almost certainly never considered the possibility that a need could arise on short notice to make them available for screening & quarantine again.

    I suppose it would be more economical to build new structures that conform to current building codes, than to refurbish sites that might be physically obsolete, while trying to preserve structures or artifacts that have historic value. So it might turn out best all around, at least Out West, to use some of the huge amounts of land controlled by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management. That way, governments could avoid the risk of reviving ghosts from politically sensitive internment camps, such as those for Japanese Americans during W.W.-II, and for the Germans of Operation-Paperclip afterwards.

  142. E.M.Smith says:

    I’m sure the military is CBW equipped, so just fly about 5 minutes further, land at Travis AFB, that has a nice Space-A facility / terminal, and put them up in a nice barracks for 2 weeks.,

  143. cdquarles says:

    Re finger stick antibody check … well, those are likely to have high false negative rates, in my opinion; and are not as easy to make as it sounds. Screening tests err of the side of false positives. You can always do a confirmatory test suite.

  144. Larry Ledwick says:

    Dr. Dena Grayson
    ‏Verified account
    🚨BREAKING: #China says that #coronavirus infections increased from 2,887 to 4,515 *an increase of 56% in a single day*. Deaths increased 29% to 106.

    This is just the beginning. Expect these numbers to continue to rise…quickly.

  145. Larry Ledwick says:

    Well it only took 4 days for the Colorado Department of Health to put up an information page on 2019-nCoV

    They don’t bother to mention that 2 of the suspected cases in Colorado have been cleared.

  146. Larry Ledwick says:

    Symptoms of 2019-nCoV infection first week

    Abundant Heaven TCM
    4 minutes ago

    “The symptoms for the 1st week are that the patients have a low fever, or no fever, fatigue, weakness, as well as a lot of digestive symptoms, such as poor appetite, nausea, diarrhea, and tightness in the chest. Most have a dry or sore throat.” #2019nCoV

    Africa braces for arrival of 2019-nCoV

  147. Larry Ledwick says:

    Work place considerations during a pandemic like the Wuhan virus 2019

  148. Larry Ledwick says:

    Another chart comparing infection rate between 2019-nCoV and SARS.
    Chart was outdated 3 hours after it was published.

  149. Larry Ledwick says:

    This video clip is from video that was quickly taken down which was supposed to be showing conditions at Hong Kong border

    Max Howroute ▫️

    MoreMax Howroute ▫️ Retweeted
    JUST IN: A situation at the Shenzhen border in Hong Kong.

    Looks like things are about to go zombie apocolypse as people try to escape Mainland China and get into Hong Kong which has said it will treat sick from the 2019-nCoV for free.

  150. Larry Ledwick says:

    Infectious disease outbreaks are not that unusual they simply quietly kill and then get forgotten if you don’t live in the region they ravage. Media has a short memory until it happens again.

  151. p.g.sharrow says:

    This beginning to sound like a Chinese “Chernobyl” kind of disaster. Chernobyl resulted in the loss of status for the Russian Communist Party and the collapse of the Soviet Union. This could well result in the end of their dream as a Chinese Super Power. Inspite of their “Iron” grip on power in China, the grasp of the central committee is fragile, Hong Kong and the people of China are beginning to feel their power to resist the old liners.
    The shut down due to this “flu” will break the back of the their system. The people already are beginning to blame their rulers for the poor early handling of this. This is just 1 of a number of failures that are becoming obvious to everyone because even in China the Internet prevails inspite of attempts of the government to control it.

  152. E.M.Smith says:


    Also consider that they are a brittle pecking order so prone to brittle fracture; and their demographics are dominated by the age / gender category most likely to die.

    What happens when 5% of the polit bureau, comm. party, and secret police “wake up dead” and 50% are incapacitated? The iron grip of control loosens as a new cohort rush in, while the survivors make changes. Brittle doesn’t do well with change, bending, and reinventing…

  153. p.g.sharrow says:

    @EMSmith; yes, the bureaucratic organization ossifies as it becomes mature and sows the seeds for it’s own destruction. The “Peter Principal” insures that result,
    America has that same problem but in this case, Trump, the outsider, was elected and has set our Bureaucratic “rulers” in a panic! their cozy organization is being threatened by someone that they don’t own. He can’t be bought, can’t be blackmailed, won’t be intimidated and generally avoids their traps. His popularity grows inspite of their media mouth piece’s constant attacks, perhaps because of their attacks!. .

  154. ossqss says:

    Dr Ding has an interesting string. Hopefully this doesn’t fill the page again. If so, please delete me, let me go. @EM

  155. p.g.sharrow says:

    This is becoming obvious to me that this virus is an escaped weaponized version of a Coronavirus that was being worked on. The Chinese government knows this and that is why they emergency began counter measures including construction of ten hospitals and moving an army of medical staff into place to deal with it.
    One hope I see for the rest of us is this thing should have a short life as being a deadly infection.

  156. Larry Ledwick says:

    Chinese authorities are said to be having success using drugs developed for HIV viral suppression as early treatments for the disease.

    Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and others have found that 3 drugs have a good inhibitory effect on new coronavirus
    Release time: January 28, 2020 23:38 Source: Hubei Daily

    Hubei Daily (Reporter Wen Jun, correspondent Long Hua, Hu Shuwei) On January 28, a series of good news came out from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences: The institute has just developed antibody test strips for research; meanwhile, the The Institute and the Institute of Toxicology and Drugs of the Academy of Military Medical Sciences have jointly found Remdesivir or Remdesivir (GS-5734), chloroquine (Remdesivir, GS-5734), which has a good inhibitory effect on the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) at the cellular level. Chloroquine, Sigma-C6628), Ritonavir and three other “old drugs”. Its subsequent clinical use is undergoing related procedures for approval.

    In the past few days, relevant departments and scientific research units of the scientific and technological circles in our province have stepped up scientific and technological research and development, highlighted the urgent need for prevention and control, gave full play to the role of experts, and endeavored to provide scientific and technological support for front-line prevention and control treatment. Ning Qin, chief physician of the Department of Infectious Diseases, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, pointed out that most patients with pneumonitis infected by new coronavirus have a good prognosis and a few patients are critically ill; symptoms of children are relatively mild, and the elderly and those with basic diseases are infected. Heavier. Based on current epidemiological investigations, the incubation period of the virus is 3-7 days, with a maximum of 14 days. She believes that in view of the similarities between the new coronavirus and SARS-Cov virus and their clinical symptoms, it is speculated that the pathogenic mechanism is likely to be caused by the activation of the body’s autoimmune attack on autologous lungs and immune organs, but the specific mechanism uncertain.

    On January 21, according to the urgent scientific and technological needs of rapid epidemic disposal and emergency response, the Provincial Department of Science and Technology launched the “2019 New Pneumonia Emergency Science and Technology Research Project”, established a new type of pneumonia emergency scientific research research expert group, and quickly promoted related research work. The Scientific Research Group of the Pneumonia Prevention and Control Headquarters of Hubei Province New Coronavirus Infection organized a strong team in the province in several related fields such as virology and epidemiology, led by the Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, focusing on “rapid detection technology products” Emergency research has been initiated in five areas, including R & D, the law of disease occurrence, development, and outcome, and clinical diagnosis and treatment, antiviral emergency drugs and vaccines, animal traceability research, and etiology and epidemiology research. With a view to carrying out epidemiological investigation and etiology traceability as soon as possible, revealing the mechanisms and rules of inflammatory response caused by pathogen infection as soon as possible, providing the foundation for disease treatment and drug development as soon as possible, and forming the ability to quickly detect and respond to new-type coronavirus as soon as possible. At present, the Ministry of Science and Technology is organizing scientific and technological research on the diagnosis and treatment of new pneumonia. The emergency science and technology research project initiated by Hubei Province is very timely. The scientific research and research system on the diagnosis and treatment of new pneumonia has been formed with the emergency research on new pneumonia diagnosis and treatment carried out by the Ministry of Science and Technology.

    Wu Tangchun, dean and professor of the School of Public Health of Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, believes that the highest priority and most effective prevention and control strategy is still to control the source of infection and cut off the transmission route. Monitoring and screening of hospitals and crowded places should be strengthened, medical institutions at all levels should be urged to report cases and suspected cases in a timely manner, strengthen the training of medical and health technicians, and improve the ability of early identification and diagnosis of cases. It is necessary to implement centralized centralized treatment of cases And suspected cases and treated in isolation. Considering the source of infection, treatment effectiveness, mortality, etc., suggestions for encouraging mild and moderate suspected patients to be isolated and treated at home should be supported instead of waiting in a long line at the hospital.

    Professor Tongchun Chun also believes that because the transmission of new coronavirus pneumonia is still not completely clear, drawing on the main prevention and control experience of respiratory infectious diseases, it is recommended to cut off the transmission through strengthening disinfection, ventilation, personal protection and other means, and to strengthen the tracking of close contacts, Detection, isolation and protection. The public must treat the epidemic rationally without panic.
    [Error Correction] Editor: Li C

  157. Octave Fiddler says:

    Regarding masks for unavoidable public contact;
    Disposable n95 masks are ~$3 each in bulk, but don’t seal well and are likely ineffective in realistic use conditions.
    Professional respirators were $40 at lowes, with ‘P100’ ratings, essentially like HEPA filters.,
    They definitely seal and are ‘wearable’.
    The P100 cartridges seem to have sorbents for solvents and irritants, which are not needed
    for virus. There is significant respiratory effort to inhale.
    Am looking to implement DIY filters with some very fine brass wire cloth mesh, maybe fan-folded to maximize contact with aerosol droplets.
    Will let you know how this goes when I get the screen.

  158. Larry Ledwick says:

    3 minutes ago
    MoreAI6YR Retweeted William Yang
    Interesting, Taiwan has a strategic store of N95 masks, which they are releasing on a daily basis to combat shortages. #nCov2019 #2019nCov

    William Yang
    … starting releasing 6 million masks on a daily basis to convenient stores and drugstores nationwide. Everyone can only buy three masks a day.

    William Yang
    3 hours ago
    And just how serous is the mask crisis in #Taiwan? Here is a drugstore that posted huge posters on its front door, emphasizing that it has run out of mask, medicinal alcohol, hand sanitizer and thermometer.

  159. E.M.Smith says:


    Does have a strong whiff of that… Including that link Larry just put up where they just happen to know a particular drug cocktail is effective against it… That isn’t the kind of thing you work out in the first couple of weeks of a pandemic unless you are incredibly lucky.

    Given the long latency period, I’d not be surprised if someone working on it had a minor Personal Protective Equipment breach and just didn’t know it, was infective and not symptomatic, and went to the Variety Meat Market to buy something ‘special’ for the new year – and while there managed to infect a whole bunch of folks as the guy walked the stalls, asking about things, and scattering droplets over various displays and into various sellers faces.

    The meat market can be the nexus while not being the source.

    @Larry L:

    One hopes our medical establishment is getting that information on treatments that work. I’m planning to print off a copy to have in hand to hand to my Doctor, should it become necessary.

    Great news about kids. So kills off the old an infirm (bad for me…) but the next generation survives (good!). Does look like they were trying to make a bug that disables the prime military age while not hurting kids; and maybe didn’t think about the Old Guard in the Central Committee… (or maybe they did ;-)

    Maybe we can convince Soros to take a trip to China? /sarc;

    (Yes, I’m entering the Black Humor stage…)

  160. Larry Ledwick says:

    That young mild response could explain the apparent asymptomatic transmission issue. Healthy teenager or sub-teen gets the bug has the sniffles and feels cruddy but since that is pretty normal for kids during the cold and flu season does not make much of an issue about it but being a kid is also careless about behaviors that turn them into vectors for the more mature adults.

    10 days later Grandpa is very very sick, but no one knows the kid had it first.

  161. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    The Asian countries are far more aware of infection protection that we are in the west. We suffer from the hubris of thinking we have conquered infectious diseases.

    FWIW, the reason we only bought one box of the masks and left the others, for others, was that I knew our strategy would be “shelter in place”. We really will not need to leave the house for a month and can make it 2 pretty easily. So only need a mask in the unlikely event we are forced to go out to “do something”. 6 masks for 2 people ought to be more than enough.


    The N95 has been shown effective against bird flu (by folks doing bird treatment), but you do need to make sure it is well fitted to your face. It is also important in that it prevents hand to nose / mouth contact. So just make sure you wash hands before eating / drinking / scratching… and it’s a big win just from blocking the touch. Major difference between N95 and N100 is not the filter, but the edge sealing.

    The N100 is much better, but were going for $35 to $54 at Home Depot and frankly, given our shelter in place scenario, unlikely to be needed. We would get more added protection from buying some wrap around glasses… IF I had to go out during a pandemic event (work, hospital, whatever…) I’d spring for one. Besides, I have an Israeli style gas mask in the EOTWAWKI kit ;-)

    IMHO, we have about a week to finish any prepping / gathering supplies. That’s about the point where the exponential growth from 5 cases now makes it unlikely you can do a grocery run and not be exposed. We’ll know for sure as the week unfolds and the case count changes. IFF the CDC is effective, it will jump a bit (from those already here) then flatten. If not, it will continue exponential and next weekend we close the door and lock it…

  162. Larry Ledwick says:

  163. M Simon says:

    p.g.sharrow says:
    28 January 2020 at 3:25 pm

    Funny on the Democrat side. The more they try to confine Bernie to D.C. the more popular he becomes. They have been picking one bad strategy after another intensely for a year and over all for about 3 years.

  164. Larry Ledwick says:

    Politics vs science. Political judgments taking precedence over medical science may in the end be the root cause of this outbreak getting away from the Chinese authorities.

  165. ossqss says:

    I was sent this a reminder on level setting from other related events. Interesting read regardless.

  166. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    28 January 2020 at 6:10 pm

    Re; David Lister
    a growth rate of 1,000X in 17 days is almost exactly 1.50X per day. A number I have been prone to. A death rate of 3% would be impossible to deal with on the last days of the infection (when it would be almost total). We could easily deal with that in a year.

    In a week,,,,,,

    A death rate of 3% says we lose 10 million total. A catastrophe.

  167. Larry Ledwick says:

    Just got our typical small update for the morning in the current Wuhan virus dashboard.

    US map is still unremarkable compared to China as is the case with the EU display

  168. Julian Jones says:

    Very possible, bioweapon lab escape :
    A national UK Foot and Mouth disease once escaped from a Govt laboratory, 2007 :
    (The UK & USA maintain many hundreds of germ warfare labs worldwide. All strictly illegal and against international convention).

  169. Larry Ledwick says:

    M Simon says:
    28 January 2020 at 6:27 pm

    Yes it is a question of timing. As I noted above in the physical example of the nuclear weapon and exponential growth where it does almost all its energy release work in the last couple generations of 57 or so cascades, an infectious epidemic starts slowly and becomes horrific only in the last few multiplications weeks – months down the road.

    The old example of put a penny on the first square of a checker board, then 2 pennies on the second square then 4 pennies on the 3rd square is a good example of how exponential growth is deceptively slow at first but brutally violent and unavoidable when the numbers get large.

    Imagine that effect in 1300’s Europe and the black plague, the process stretches over months and in the end over a few weeks time span 25% of your village dies. If this gets away from authorities and gets into high density low medical sophistication populations it will make the black plague look like a warm up rather than an extreme case.

    That all of course depends on unknowable issues, like how many are out there right now seeding wide spread outbreaks all over the world that will do what is happening in China in 2 months or so?

    We may dodge the bullet yet again but sooner or later one of these outbreaks will go global and take out more people than the entire death toll of WWII in a matter of days. It is a statistical certainty.

  170. E.M.Smith says:

    Just as a bit of nostalgia, and to put a bit of underline on how fast things “blow up”:

    Almost exactly 10 days ago, only 17 new cases and it made the news. So Toronto just announced their second case, and the USA went from 2 to 5 in about a day. So exponentially that would be, what, 15 days until we’re in a big growth phase?

    So here’s hoping that the CDC is as good as they think they are and that our medical system is as great as we like to think it is, and that our folks are clueful enough about sanitation, not smoking, and being generally healthy enough that we can dodge the exponential.

    I’m figuring that in about one week we’ll have enough data to know what our status will be, and that in 2 weeks it’s either mostly over in the USA / Europe or we’re heading into lockdown. I don’t see much room for a middle ground. Where we are still getting cases “by the 10s” but don’t end up with an exponential. I think we either get R0 below one fairly quickly, or we end up with the native R0 value as it enters large urban slum populations.

  171. E.M.Smith says:


    Yeah, people seem prone to either complacency or panic. I’m of the sort that likes to hold the middle ground and “hope for the best, prepare for the worst”. Yet it is hard to get folks to take that balance.

    It tends to be “expect the worst and get excited” even when it isn’t that bad, or “what, me worry?” even if things are bad.

    So I’m making sure we can do a “shelter in place” for 2 months survival of the Corona-zombies while all the while expecting it won’t get that bad here and while hoping the CDC stops this thing in the single digits. Thus my statement that we ought to have enough case data for the USA in a week or so to know which way reality is leaning.

    What tips me a little more to the “this will be bad” side vs Ebola “this is unlikely to be bad but if it is it will be really bad” is just the R0 value. That whole super-spreader via kids and asymptomatic spreaders thing. It is very hard to stop that.

    But, with a bit of luck, folks in N. America can stop this one in the early stages too. I hope… “But hope is not a strategy. -E.M.Smith” while preparedness is…

  172. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    28 January 2020 at 7:21 pm

    At a 1.5X a day growth rate.

    You get 1,000X in 17 days.

    So Feb 15th – 5,000 cases.

    About 4 March 5 million cases

    About 21 March 5 billion cases.

    The climax will come about 14 to 21 March.

  173. E.M.Smith says:

    Sri Lanka has their first case. A person who had visited China.

    @ M. Simon:

    We can easily go 1 month with no change of lifestyle, 2 months with substitution of lesser products ( canned milk for fresh, canned chicken for frozen, oatmeal instead of bacon & eggs), and 3 months unhappily (beans & rice, packaged mac ‘n cheese, lots of ramen…) so end of March would be our start of unhappy dinners…

    By then, ought to have good diagnostics, lots of testing, and maybe an early vaccine.

    Biggest thing missing at the moment is dog food. End of week we buy a big bag of kibble if the stats justify it (at present they are fed canned).

    We’re planning a Friday last call shopping run, then maybe a Monday AwShit Forgot run if inventory check surfaces anything, and likely skipping Sunday Church (Spouse goes to a big Spanish Mission (built by Spanish, service in English) filled with loads of students and tourists from all over, so enhanced risk profile. Likely we’ll do the online mass instead.

    Good practice if nothing else. IF things go sideways in the following week, we are already set, if no change, we shift the schedule window a week and do a refill shopping run.

    Here’s a CDC report from 4 hours ago

  174. Larry Ledwick says:

  175. Larry Ledwick says:

  176. E.M.Smith says:

    Given that chart, and using USA current cases, the USA has 1/2 the population infected by March 4th. Unless the CDC succeeds. Also the 1-in-a-million risk of exposure comes about Jan 30th and 1 in a hundred at Feb 22.

    My personal risk tolerance limits about Feb 7th, but partly just due to California already having cases and being a landing spot for travelers from the East. Nice to have the chart confirm my estimates / guesses.

  177. Larry Ledwick says:

    Drone footage of Wuhan china – ghost town due to everyone staying indoors for quarantine, normally teeming with traffic

  178. S.T. Taylor says:

    I’m new to this site – great information –
    My plan is to wait a few more days to see if this starts to blossom in the US. If so I will go into Prep mode – I live in a smaller city (less than 100K and away from the metro areas) so I feel pretty confident that we can weather a big storm. I just need to stay ahead of the curve in getting the final push for supplies –

    I am praying that it does not come to that but this looks like it has much longer legs than anything that has come before in my lifetime – even if not as lethal on a pct basis…

  179. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes nice to have the chart as confirmation, the last couple days doubling interval for both cases and fatalities is about every 2 days. That of course could change as things like the quarantine begin to modify behavior but lots of just in time buyers are going to be out of food in a week or two.

    Interesting note I looked up average visits to grocery stores a while back. Upper class white color young folks typically shop about 3 – 3.5 times a week ( ie every 2 days )
    Folks on weekly pay typically shop every saturday ( ie once a week)
    bi-weekly pay every two weeks etc.

    And monthly pay (ie pension or social security or lower class blue collar often do mega shopping trips every couple weeks or once a month.
    Multiply that by some reasonable factor like 3x – 5x and you have a good idea how much food they have in the cupboards if access to stores stopped suddenly.

    That means that the first folks to run out of food are the folks most able to afford it, because the buy just in time or eat at restaurants.

    Grocery stores restock about 4 – 5 x a month if I recall correctly if you look at cost basis, of what they buy in a year and total inventory spend, so they have about 2 – 2.5 weeks normal consumption on the shelves and in back stock at any given time

  180. Larry Ledwick says:

    Preliminary numbers are starting to show up, yesterday’s total confirmed cases was 4,690, looks like next update will be 5,589 – an increase of 19.2% or +899 cases in 24 hours.

  181. p.g.sharrow says:

    Having grown up and lived in very rural areas, we always had food stores for long term survival. Shopping was done monthly but that was for convenience things not survival. If I don’t see canned and dry goods supplies on hand for months, I get nervous.

  182. E.M.Smith says:

    Restock of something is daily week days and varies by product. We got canned goods delivered once s week (restaurant… I did the shelf stocking…) where meat was a couple of times a week and fish was monthly for the frozen regular menu items (fish sticks and halibut steaks) and about every 2 days for fresh specials. We got a case of 50 chickens about once a week (depending on reorder inventory) and I got to butcher, prep, and pack all of them (parts packed in one meal units after breading so cook just dumps it into the frier). Saladings were daily as they are not crisp after a couple of days storage. IIRC it was 12 iceberg lettuce / crate. (Sometimes I got to trim and turn into salad base mix…)

    At the local grocer, most of the stock is on display. The back room Is mostly an unloading depalletizing operation. Local safeway stocks shelves each night including at least Saturday and perhaps Sunday for fast movers. IMHO, you would be hard pressed to call it 3 days inventory. Maybe 2 at best. That does not count their regional warehouses which is what I think your number counts. Even there, they try to minimize inventory and push that carry cost upstream to the maker.

    Look at Whole Foods. Presently have stock-outs nation wide on their house brand dry beans, rice and similar. Why? Their provider tanked. So no inventory for a couple of months as they get a new contract. It was just days from event to empty shelves. No W.F. warehouse even of their own house brand.

    IMHO, for personal planning purposes, assume total inventory in stores and their facilities is no more than one week.

  183. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes my numbers are based on inventory turn over, ie how many times they turn over their entire inventory on a cost basis ( the easiest way to do the accounting but does not account for the things you are talking about like seasonal items (turkey watermelon fresh sweet corn etc.)

    It is just an average rule of thumb look at how often they restock.
    Method used by grocery stores to estimate inventory turn over.

    Total inventory turn over by cost basis is basically once a month it looks like, but because of that restock cycle you mentioned about half of that turn over is in transit at any given moment so if you suddenly locked down all deliveries they would be limited to all shelf stock and the loaded trailers waiting to unload or inside the quarantine perimeter.

    China is going to have to do some sort of a red ball express or Berlin Airlift type restocking process to keep the cities from starving in a few weeks.

  184. p.g.sharrow says:

    Ha! ha! if pushed my garden is now knee deep in weeds, most of which are edible in a pinch Have enough Rice on hand for a month at least for several people. and there are lots of squirrels in the trees. even have several pints of tallow on hand if the oils run out.
    Us country boys can survive…pg

  185. Larry Ledwick says:

    Accidentally posted to the wrong thread
    First major update of the day, local time in WuHan China is 08:01, there should be another small update in about 4 hours near local noon time.

    Growth continues at about 19% in the last 24 hours which if unchanged by later updates would give a doubling time of about 3.6 days.

  186. E.M.Smith says:

    Well, P.G., it will be up to you to repopulate the world after the Corona Zombie Apocalypse ;-)

    I’ve got a tree full of citrus and 3 months to get the garden productive. I’m pretty sure I can do that. Heck, just the fact that green bean leaves are edible is enough to work. IIRC, The Walden Pond garden was all just beans. Ive also got a perennial horseradish patch and those leaves are tasty! Then there’s always radishes. Oh, and rutabaga leaves are edible too for a quick start.

    Then there’s my squirrel crop ;-) Enough for about a month. 2 as stew…

  187. p.g.sharrow says:

    This is beginning to look to me like a really bad cold for most people. If after a week, you get so sick with pneumonia that you must go to a hospital your odds might be as bad as 50/50, Sounds to me to be normal year to year influenza risk. Try to stay otherwise healthy and use normal caution. For us in California it is nearly time to start spring gardening!
    I think China’s very poor air quality has had an effect in this epidemic. We will know in about a week if this is a real Pandemic…pg

  188. E.M.Smith says:


    Yes, sort of. There was a graph, that I thought was just up stream but I can’t find it now. It showed sickness and ICU by age.

    Basically, those under 25 were almost zero and had no ICU cases. Those over 65 had half the cases go to ICU where many die. Clearly there is an age effect. Those who died tended to a preexisting comorbidity. Either from the high smoking rates, lousy air, or other issue.

    Then the degree of contagion is quite high. Coupled with humans having no experience with this bug makes a pandemic highly likely.

    So a pandemic of a bad chest cold for kids. Pandemic of lethal pneumonia for the elderly. Pandemic of bad lung problems for the middle, with some significant deaths.

    As I’m in the older cohort, I need to treat it as serious.

    Is this “normal influenza risk”? Guess that depends on “last year or Spanish Flu”?

  189. Ossqss says:

    Living in Florida provides many point and shoot or hook and fry dinner options if needed, all day every day. Heck, Python pudding may even be on the menu!

    The beer would be my most concerning survival item of desire in a long term situation ;-)

  190. H.R. says:

    Got an update from the D-I-L today via our son. She and her parents are riding it out in Shanghai, where her dad has a vacation home. I don’t know the particulars of this second house, but I’d bet money it is much more isolated than the house in Shenzhen.

    What I don’t know is when they traveled there. If they have been there two weeks and no-one is infected, then they should be golden until the contagion burns out around them

    The latest map Larry posted had a large red dot on Shenzhen, where they were. Shanghai has a small red dot surrounded by yellow. This is recent. I don’t know when they made their move. Was it weeks or days ago?

    She’s extending her stay through the first week of February. She is still keeping her folks in while she goes out. She reports having plenty of masks and disinfectants. I was worried that every place would be ‘out’ but that’s not the case for her. Her actions back up some reports that this virus seems to be hitting older people hardest.

    Larry has been posting tweets from people who seem to be knowledgeable enough to assess the situation. I am just posting the actions of a sharp, Chinese-born cookie (and her astute, connected dad) so’s y’all can balance what is being put out there by Chinese and other sources vs. the actions of one savvy Chinese family.

    Note: I find it interesting that my D-I-L thinks it’s going to be OK to leave Shanghai around February 7th+/- and that her parents will be OK. I have no idea why she thinks that at this point.

  191. cdquarles says:

    Please, do not call this thing a cold. A cold is due to rhinoviruses, and is an upper respiratory thing. You can call it a lower respiratory system virus. The conflation/overloading will cause confusion; which will cause some to make poor decisions.

  192. E.M.Smith says:


    Does using the traditional phrase of “chest cold” as a synonym for “lower respiratory infection” (not common in vulgar English use) insult your sensibilities? If so, I’m willing to accommodate.

    Traditionally also, we used “head cold” to distinguish “upper respiratory infection”. (Then sore throat for the pipes between those two).

  193. p.g.sharrow says:

    @EMSmith, yes I know the risks, I am 73 and have lung problems so pneumonia is always a risk

  194. Larry Ledwick says:

    Good to hear H.R. I am sure she will make re-assessments as things develop.

    Speaking of which:

    Rev. Scott Anthony ⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️
    1 minute ago
    20% of those infected with #2019nCoV #coronavirus WILL BECOME CRITICALLY ILL… or 1 out of 5 infected (your choice).

    This is well above the percentage of those infected with seasonal influenza… it’s not even close.

    Comparing seasonal flu with 2019nCoV is not apples:apples

  195. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting observation – road blocks and quarantine really to protect the government not the people??

    Do those cities constitute critical nodes in the country?

  196. llanfar says:

    From an online MD acquaintance of my cousin whom he interacted with for 20+ years.


    Let me be really blunt here. PAY ATTENTION!
    I’ll put this in terms of Trump’s earlier tweet.

    “We are in very close communication with China concerning the virus.” YES WE ARE – both officially (full of PC lies) and unofficially (in direct contact with researchers and family members of researcher that are in this country.)

    “Very few cases REPORTED in the USA, but strongly on watch.” Reported by the political CDC. They are SCUM – they will do anything not to create a panic. I know they lie specifically due to the “boots on ground” work my boss has done on ebola and SARS. “Officially” there are few confirmed nCoV cases publicized in the US. There are a whole bunch of people being investigated. There are even MORE secondary contacts. Case in point, in my own town we have an individual who came in on the same flight as the first positive in Washington state. NO ONE has officially contacted him or his family. (We are feeding him facts and recommendations at a distance.)

    “We have offered China and President Xi any help that is necessary.” We have University links to several research facilities in China and directly with personnel there. The Fake News reports and the clinical reports we’ve received so far are dramatically different. There is a lot of high-quality information coming in directly to and from researchers. Chinese politics will “save face”. Researchers are saving lives and getting the technical information out.

    “Our experts are extraordinary!” Absolutely! My boss has a 200+ IQ (tested). He has US patents out the ying-yang. He has spoken directly with the President in the past. His team is just as extraordinary. I am responsible for the medical health of that team (Don’t ask how this dumbass Emergency Physician got linked into this group – I just consider it a privilege to know these people that make a profound difference in the world EVERY DAY.)


    1. They have traced the virus back to “Patient 0” (I can’t find anymore unclassified information about him.) .

    2. The original virus contains gene sequences from a “Civit” (cat like), “Krate Snake” and “Horseshoe Bat”. There is a great argument about who ate/got infected by whom first. The exotic meat of all three were sold at the Meat Market at WuHan. The possibility of a weaponized/engineered virus has NOT been ruled out.

    3. There is a HIGH suspicion this can be transmitted to/from snakes, domestic cats and bats though that is unproven at this time.

    4. The virus has evolved TOWARD better human to human transmission and IS continuing to do so.

    5. The PUBLIC numbers from China are EXTREMELY LOW. (Direct information to researchers in the US from family of researchers that are in the field themselves. You can dispute all the videos and statements coming out of China, but that fact remains they are reacting much more aggressively in response to this than the seasonal flu that kills thousands times the current “official” nC0V numbers.)

    6. The current OFFICIAL rate of sustained infection (R0) is 1.4 to 2.6. Anything over 1 is considered to be self-sustaining. (I suspect that number is much higher due to undocumented infections, whether hidden, self-quarantined, mis-diagnosed or unable to see a documenting health professional. )

    7. Current (well documented) incubation is 1-14 days.

    8. Infected can shed virus 2-5 days BEFORE showing symptoms of their infection.

    9. Surface survival of the virus is approximately 15 minutes (Exposed to sun and chemicals) and up to 7+ days when not exposed to high moisture and UV radiation. (WuHan is a big manufacturing area for the world – Budweiser Beer has been produced there since the mid-90’s. Think of all the exports. Think of the contact spread of the virus.)

    10. You have to get a certain number of viri to produce an infection. That number is unknown. Avoid areas where people/germs can concentrate (planes, trains, autos, meeting rooms, etc.)


    – Stay home.
    – Don’t allow visitors.
    – Wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands – for 20 seconds at least, and with soap (Don’t depend on hand sanitizers – some are not effective and people don’t always use them properly).
    – Wash your hands before putting anything in your mouth.
    – Nothing in mucus membranes (Eyes, ears, nose, mouth, vagina, anus). Sorry Ladies and Gentleman, you are going to have to put away your toys for the duration.
    – Don’t touch your face.
    – Avoid crowds, gatherings, clinics and ESPECIALLY hospitals.
    – If you have to go out as this develops, mask, gloves, whole body clothing – then launder/shower when home.
    – Prep for sheltering-in-place for a minimum of 2 weeks.
    – Get it done!


    Yes, I have to work.

    For simple masks we only use N-100s. Anything less is insufficient (will leak during normal activities and are uncomfortable to wear for an extended period of time – read you will touch the outer surface repeatedly to adjust it – BAD) and in the case of surgical masks – those ear loop pieces of cloth/paper, can enhance the spread of the infection when they get wet from regular respirations (20 minutes). BTDT

    We use clear wrap around protective lenses generally and goggles for bad stuff. The goggles work well as I can keep my glasses on.

    The house has several HEPA air filters, both floor units and high-grade AC filters in the forced air unit (pain in the butt to replace every 3 months).

    We wipe everything with Clorox Clean-ups (switches, door handles, railings, anything your hand touches). We wash is as high as temperature as permissible – bodies, clothing, dishes, etc.

    We are now experimenting with UV-C hand wands for non-wipe-able items.


    I come in the basement door and drop my clothing in the laundry or directly into the washer. Doctor bag stays in the basement. (We are experimenting with UV-C lighting for the laundry when we are not there). Shoes/Doctor bag get sprayed with Lysol or UV wanded. From there, I head directly to the shower and redress in clean clothing. The wife wipes everything I’ve touched down with Clorox Cleanups. Only then do I kiss the wife, play with the dogs, get something to eat, and check my e-mails. After that, its time to drag the wife off to bed for some fun. Since the AIDS epidemic way back when, we agreed to share any lethal bug I might contract in my job – personal choice.

    This procedure of stripping and showering got my physician Grandfather through the Spanish Flu without infection as he saw patients in their homes daily. We actually read it in my Grandmother’s diary and adopted the practice here.

    I will provide more information as it becomes available. Please don’t hit me with PMs or open questions. I don’t have the time and get really snarky when I get exhausted.

    Good luck and Godspeed.

    , MD, FACEP

  197. Larry Ledwick says:

    I was talking to one of my co-workers about the Wuhan Virus outbreak and we were talking about various risk factors, and we mentioned aircraft and trains etc.

    Then I had a little light bulb moment, what about the secondary transpiration links that connect those major carriers to the travelers homes?

    Someone who is contagious but asymptomatic arrives at the airport, picks up their luggage at the pickup carousel, and pays some skycap to help move their luggage to the curb, gets in a cab or maybe and Uber or Lyft and or an airport express bus, goes to their neighborhood and home. They have exposed passengers on the plane, passengers from other planes that were handling bags as nearby carousels the sky caps or just random passengers they might bump into while getting to their ride, passengers on the bus, or drivers in the cabs, uber or lyft drivers and perhaps subsequent passengers in those same vehicles – when you start considering that whole contact tree is is far larger that just the few folks seated near them on the plane.

    A single person could easily expose 50 – 100 people just taking a flight home.

  198. Larry Ledwick says:

    Also another comment I saw made, is in a serious infectious outbreak people might refuse to accept physical money due the possibility it is infectious. Have to consider how you would side step that issue if it came up.

    1. Count out the money then disinfect it in front of the seller,(alcohol bath) or use food handling gloves and baggies to transfer money) and let the seller figure out how to make the money safe.
    2. UV -C light box?
    3. Bake the money for a while at low oven temps (175 deg F)

    Same issue would exist with all barter goods,

  199. Larry Ledwick says:

    Major update on counts came out a little while ago. it is now 12:53 local time in Wuhan
    6057/4474 = 35.4% increase since yesterday at 6:00 pm MDT

  200. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like the evacuees from Wuhan China will under go a quarantine hold when they arrive in California.

  201. Ossqss says:

    @HR, I hope the best for the DIL and relateds, and you too. I am sure there is stress.

    Albeit, the data is really not good for consumption, it appears the incubation period can be up to 14 days, but most have been reported as less to date.

    Either way, the math must be respected and attention payed to it.

    Those numbers are generated from the assumption of isolation. Indirect exposure can start the clock over. Positive contact through any exposure, from what we know, can arise from symptom free conditions. That is the uneasy part.

    Hopefully the dissapation and resistance factor, which is also unknown to date, proves to be positive to the scenarios at hand. We should know more in the near term.

    I can’t help but wonder how our history of exposure to things impacts us through life. Does the kid who played in the mud do better than the kid who didn’t with things like this?

  202. Ossqss says:

    @Larry, interesting data in that last graphic. 110 recovered, 132 not recovered in a bad way out of over 6k referenced.

    Just strikes me with questions. Is it just me?

  203. M Simon says:

    Video of 1 hour and 11 minutes. They start off with a recounting the errors of the Chinese government. Confirming (if it is not circular) an earlier link posted here. Arrests of people discussing the virus.

    I have only watched the first few minutes.

  204. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    29 January 2020 at 3:19 am

    If the China government expects 1 to 2 million deaths That would be a death rate of .1% – not very bad. With the usual caveat – it is a Communist government.

  205. H.R. says:

    @Larry L – The massive travel for Chinese New Year; that’s kind of the subplot of my running commentary on my D-I-L and her parents.

    How did they get to Shanghai? They were exposed to people who were exposed to people who were exposed to people who had the virus in the course of their travels.

    I take it as a given that my D-I-L was in and out of Wuhan early enough to have not been exposed at all to the virus, unless she is a carrier and not susceptible. But then how has she not managed to infect her parents if she’s an asymptomatic carrier?

  206. E.M.Smith says:

    Canada now has a case in British Columbia. Japan & Germany have cases of human to human contagion to folks who have not been to China. It is in Sri Lanka, and Thailand has 14…

  207. Larry Ledwick says:

    Bit of information on the evacuation flight of US personnel from Wuhan China to the US.

    Also mentions that the virus dies on surfaces in about 2 hours. I would take this with a grain of salt because it does not elaborate at all regarding the conditions (temperature, humidity, material of the surface etc.)

  208. Larry Ledwick says:

    This image clearly shows the infection rate exponent for 2019-nCoV is stable and protective actions so far have had very little if any effect on the spread of this virus.

  209. E.M.Smith says:

    I would speculate the reason “protection” measures have not slowed it is because they are not in fact protective. Take Canada: As late as tonight, the Canadian medical “expert” was on camera assuring everyone that it was fine they let a case sit around at home until symptoms developed because you were not contagious without symptoms. So he was at home WITH HIS FAMILY until he calked in with symptoms. But now he is in hospital, so it is all fine.

    What good is telling folks to call in when they develop symptoms, if you sent them from the airport to home in public transport?

    Similarly, what good walling off Wuhan after 1.5 million people left?

    What good is a Chinese quarantine if several nations are allowed to fly out a 1000 people each?

    It just is not being handled as a serious threat with superspreaders. And nobody seems to have cottoned to how kids can get it with mild symptoms they ignore.

  210. David A says:

    Regarding M Simon’s video posted above. Per the insider contacts to one city, the hospital Doctors he knows confirmed that the positive diagnosed cases were double, 60 vs 30 what the Government recorded.
    Just for a WAG let’s do that to all the numbers.
    Add in whatever realistic percentage of all the cases of pneumonia that were or are this.
    Add in all the cases seeking help that were denied, sent home.
    Add in all those that never went in for help. What with word on the street being that you will be turned away, plus the video expressed that this is common in China, that could be a very large number.

    It appears to be a realistic WAG that there are 10 to 20 times the number of cases as currently recorded.
    This would be particularly true in the worst hit areas as the hospitals are overwhelmed, out of test kits, and clearly very dangerous places to be, and the administration is State mandated to minimize the true story, or else!

  211. David A says:

    E.M. as I recall that 1.5 million was the number that left after the lock down deadline was posted. Yet the Mayor of Wuton said about 4 million left. Likely the other 2.5 million were the one’s leaving for the national holiday; that the video called the largest mass migration on the planet.

    What is the US number now? I think we went from 2 to 5, but I have not heard of new cases since.

  212. M Simon says:

    A two minute video released on the 27th. A minute and twenty seconds in he gets interesting. Draconian Limits on mobility.

  213. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    29 January 2020 at 7:14 am

    Real numbers and Estimates from the later part of that graph indicate about a 1.5X daily increase.

    So 5 1/2 days 10X
    11 days 100X
    17 days 1000X
    22 days 10,000X
    0ne month roughly. 100,000X

    very roughly.

  214. M Simon says:

    M Simon says:
    29 January 2020 at 5:40 am

    I’m getting deeper into that video. It covers general sanitation problems in China. About 35 minutes in.

  215. jim2 says:

    I have a question. How do we know that for every clinical case, there aren’t a hundred people who got sick, but not sick enough to report to medical?

  216. S.T. Taylor says:

    Something to consider – I am in supply chain and the global supply chain is going to take a big hit on this even if the virus were to burn out today. With China taking an extra week off for Chinese New Year’s holiday that is one more week (at least) of a delay in production picking back up for manufacturing in the US and Europe that count on the raw materials and components that are made in China.
    The majority of our (my company) supply chain is around the Shanghai area – I have a hard time believing that China will open back up for business if they still see the virus climbing in numbers around the Wuhan area.

    I read a report that said China suffered a 1% hit to GDP during the SARs outbreak – and that outbreak was not nearly as intense as this has been so far ( and is still ongoing ) – the US took a .07% hit – which is much bigger than you might think. Even if this virus does not hit the US hard, we will feel the economic impact of it – for some areas it will be good as fuel will drop – but some consumer items will become scarce / more expensive.

    I have some critical parts that are sole sourced in China – right now I’m working on contingency plans to source them in S. America / US and the capital will be close to $1.0 million. So a big chunk of change….
    Add that to the fact that there is a chance that this does blow up in the US –
    My thoughts are we will know later next week if this has a foothold in the US as there should be some sort of climb of US cases reported if the first wave that came from China caused any infections. Also – there is always the possibility that some of the people traveling now could be infected as well.

  217. Larry Ledwick says:

    CDC Transmission note

    Note the guide lines here for evaluation of a PUI (Person Under Investigation) of contact with 2019-nCoV presumes contact with an identifiable risk (ie recent travel to Wuhan China or close contact with someone who is already at risk)
    It self selects out random unknown contact situations, so using this check list people presenting with respiratory distress and no known connection with high risk Wuhan virus exposure will likely not even get tested and be treated as routine seasonal flu or pneumonia.

  218. cdquarles says:

    @ Jim2,
    At the moment, we don’t know what the proportions are. What we do know is that there are some who are naturally immune (don’t have the receptor), and some who are naturally immune due to exposure to a similar enough infection previously. There are some who will be asymptomatic yet infectious. There are some who will get a mild illness. There are some who will get a serious illness. There are some who will get a fatal illness.

    Don’t forget that there is a dose-response curve here. There is a minimum effective infectious dose. Greater doses increases the likelihood of infection. This also affects the incubation period. The lower the exposure, the longer the time needed for the infection to get going internally; and with that, the longer it will be before that person becomes infections and/or shows symptoms. Recall that most symptoms are due to activation of the immune system, and not from the infection itself.

    Re chest cold/head cold; the issue is that folk will get misled by the equivocation, and thus make poor decisions. As long as folk know what kind of virus they are dealing with, the colloquial term is fine. We know more now about these things than we did 100 years ago, after all.

  219. E.M.Smith says:


    While there will be both financial and physical impacts from this, they ought not be large. If I can’t buy a toaster next month, I still need a toaster 2 months from now. A lot of displaced demand, not a lot of ended demand. For some real time producers, it is flat loss. Starbucks has about 1/2 their stores in China, and they are being closed. You don’t recover those sales.

    Will the USA take a hit? Sure. Also things like food and medical supply sales will have an increase now, then a drop as folks use those stocks. Does it matter? Not in the long run.


    We don’t know, but it is probable that there are a lot of lower grade infections that don’t get counted.

    @David A. :

    During real crisis events, keeping the stats right goes out the window. It is essentially given that the numbers are wrong and reports low. How low? How high is “up”?

  220. Larry Ledwick says:

    Reposting a few links from the prior WOOD thread

    Click to access 3000165.pdf

    Refresh this often as wiki it is updated often and right now it appears to not be getting filled with politically motivated bias.
    Early info on breakout of who is affected by the virus compared to similar numbers for SARS and MERS

    Hand disinfection info

  221. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting item here, TASS reports Chinese investigators have identified an antibody from a prior strain of “atypical pneumonia” that binds with 2019-nCoV. This could explain some of the asymptomatic responses if China has a recent bout of a a sufficiently similar bug to generate a pool of people who have a leg up on the immune response to this new virus.

  222. Larry Ledwick says:

    Update: The infection rate R0 of #coronavirus 2019-ncov is estimated at 4.08 new infections per disease. This is very contagious. And the death rate is 6.77%.

    Click to access 2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf

    59 Using the data described above, [R0] is estimated to be 4.08, indicating that an infected 𝑅
    60 patient infects more than four susceptible people during the outbreak. This value substantially
    61 exceeds WHO’s estimate of (supposed to be smaller than ) between 1.4 and 2.5, and is 𝑅0 𝑅
    62 also higher than a recent estimate between 3.6 and 4.0 ( 𝑅 8). Compared against the 2003 0
    63 SARS epidemic, of 2019-nCoV is higher than that of SARS in both Beijing (2.76) and 𝑅
    64 Guangzhou (3.01) (calculated using the same method). To test the robustness of findings, we
    65 performed sensitivity analyses by adopting varying values of and , generated from a 𝐿 𝐷
    66 Gaussian distribution with and . The resulting mean of R estimates is 𝐿~𝑁(7,1) 𝐷~𝑁(9,1)
    67 4.08, as expected, with SD=0.36 (95% CI 3.37~4.77).

    77 The SEIRDC model estimates the fatality rate for 2019-nCoV is 6.50%. As a base of
    78 comparison, the fatality rate for 2003 SARS was 7.66% and 3.61% for Beijing and
    79 Guangzhou, respectively.

    If these numbers are correct there are a lot of unreported or mis-attributed deaths.

  223. Larry Ledwick says:

    Meanwhile under the expedient protection category we have the “bottle head protective mask”

  224. S.T. Taylor says:

    @ Larry Ledwick

    Thanks for the information – I think at this point it is obvious that China is under reporting the number of infected/deaths due to fear, incompetence, politics, ect…

    I’m just continuing to hope that the bloom does not happen in the US or elsewhere – should know in 5-10 days I guess…

  225. Larry Ledwick says:

    Yes all you can do is wait and watch at this point, assuming you have taken care of obvious issues that would crop up if it goes ballistic in the rest of the world or your back yard.

    This thread sums it up pretty much, most people have little understanding of and poor visualization of exponential growth and what it is capable of (as evidenced by some of the financial decisions we make every day)

    We (those of us who watch such things) have known for 100 years that sooner or later the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak would be repeated under another name. It was just a matter of time.
    Is this that repeat or the new small pox or another near miss like SARS MERS and Ebola?

    This history of infections diseases exploding out of no where and cutting down the population in wholesale lots is well documented but most people are either ignorant of that history or although aware push it to the back of their mind because they don’t want to cope with the thought that a few thousand miles away a million people could die in a matter of days due an odd happenstance of probability and genetic drift.

  226. A C Osborn says:

    The number of deaths are likely to be much higher than reported due to those self isolating dying alone at home.
    These will not be noticed or counted until someone actually investigates their situtation, which won’t be untill the authorities think they have it under control.
    For all anyone knows they could already be in the hundreds or thousands.

  227. E.M.Smith says:


    Since incubation can be as short as a day or two, we might start finding out about now. Any new case from contagion shows it isn’t being reduced enough. Every day without such a case improves the probability of success by 1/14. (At day 15 you have zero risk, so 100% success). Basically you add 7% success per day of no cases. With 5 cases in the USA, any new case from contagion from them is a 1/5 reduction in success or about a 20% reduction of success. (When each of the 5 cases gives a new case you are making zero progress, or 100% failure, so 20% per new case).

    I think we have gone one day without a new case, so have 7% success confirmed so far.

  228. Larry Ledwick says:

    Speaking of silent risks

    CDC monitoring 110 ppl in 26 states. Declined name states.

    If just a few of those turn out to be infected we have far more than 5 in the US. With an average incubation period of 8 days plus several days before critical respiratory crisis sets in, it will be a week or so before these cases get mature enough to get a look at the real US situation.

    Given the massive migration that occurs during the Chinese new year, I find it highly unlikely that in places like San Francisco China Town district that there are not dozens of people that recently traveled back to China for the holiday.

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  230. E.M.Smith says:

    I’ve added a new thread on the topic as this one is getting slow to load…

    So things continue at:

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