16 Feb 2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 / Covid-19 Corona Virus Out break

An interesting connection to a “lab” has been turned up. Seems folks working with bats were about 300 yards / meters away from the Fish Market…

So it might be from lab made, or from a lab bat biting folks, or not. But really, you put an infectious disease lab near the food market? Just OMG dumb. You are simply asking for lab personnel to pick up some fresh fish and such on their way home.

Here’s the prior postings in the series, for historical interest:

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/01/26/chinese-novel-coronavirus-outbreak-2019-ncov/

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/01/29/global-2019-ncov-corona-virus-outbreak/

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/01/ghe-2019-ncov-corona-virus-outbreak/

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/04/4-feb-2019-ncov-corona-virus-outbreak

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/06/6-feb-2019-ncov-corona-virus-outbreak/

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/12/11-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-corona-virus-outbreak/

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About E.M.Smith

A technical managerial sort interested in things from Stonehenge to computer science. My present "hot buttons' are the mythology of Climate Change and ancient metrology; but things change...
This entry was posted in Biology Biochem, Covid, News Related and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

255 Responses to 16 Feb 2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2 / Covid-19 Corona Virus Out break

  1. Octave Fiddler says:

    Hard to assign any meaning to the numbers, but I imagine the recoveries and deaths (presumably of known, ‘Confirmed’ officially hospitalized cases) are not inconsistent between them..
    Thus it is possible to look at their case management success rate on an ongoing basis.
    With that proviso,
    the Johns Hopkiins data is now at
    https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_daily_reports

    and look at the differences between 2-15 and 2-14 totals for Hubei (the epicenter),
    there were 849 incremental recoveries and 139 deaths.
    The fraction Deaths/(Deaths+Recoveries) is 0.14 today.
    (if I didn’t make a manual transcription error, which happens increasingly often).

    Before the big step change in reporting rate, I was seeing 0.2 as the running death rate.
    So, this is ‘interesting’ piece of data that I don’t see being covered.
    By eyeball, the running recovery rates for all other (Non-Hubei) nations/provinces,
    were previously much higher than 80%, more like high 90’s.
    I’m not enough of an automatic datascrape guy to extract this number on an ongoing basis.
    I’m a different flavor of F.R. Aspie…
    Glad that Jefe is back at the home keyboard!
    Continuing thanks to Larry for relentless diligence!
    OF

  2. tucsonaustrian says:

    Classic millenial reasoning. If you panic the research will slow down.
    Reasoning: that‘s what a video game programmer came up with.
    Must be true.
    I like his channel, but he is a science moron.

  3. David A says:

    Thanks for the link E.M. The zero hedge article I posted at the tail end of the last thread linked to this paper from a Chinese University. So yes, it has chops and I note earlier reports of Chinese CCP members NOT denying it may have come from the lab, and other qualified researchers claiming one segment in the RNA was specific to laboratory gene splicing.

    Humm? I am crossing the plus 50 percent “it came from a lab” threshold.

    ” Likeing” this is a humbling word. Yes the ego likes to be on the right trail, and for reasons mentioned I have fluctuated around the 50 percent mark on the cause of this being a lab release, likely accidental. Einstein said ” I don’t WANT to be right, I just want to know IF I am right”. ( Something to strive to live up to)

  4. David A says:

    a I grow older I find that the less certain I am about what I know, the more likely I am to find correct answers.

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    FWIW, I picked up some clear wrap around safety glasses at a Walmart somewhere in Arizona or New Mexico… (Not paying a lot of attention and just wanted to put a bit more inventory in the car… water flat, some snacks..) Cost was about $3 and they had n95 masks on the shelf and LOTS of rubbing alcohol. Clearly the local stock outage in California was a consequence of the first virus cases popping up locally (travelers from China). (From the “Why prepare when you can react?” crowd)

    @David A:

    The problem with saying “Has lab sequence therefore made in lab.” is just that it requires perfect containment in the lab. It is quite possible for it to have escaped into the wild bat population before jumping to people. Unlikely, but then this whole thing is unlikely.

    That said, the notion that it was from the Disease Research lab playing with sick bats which clearly was NOT doing Level Anything (blood on clothes? Bites?) and someone from there spread it to the fish market 300 yards away “fits all the known facts” quite nicely. At this point, that would be my 85% likely choice. All it takes is simple screwups in a poorly secured facility known to a) Have a large viral load and b) Has had screwups before.

    It also passes the “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity” test… LOTS of stupid in evidence. Lax procedures. Location near food vendors. Live infectious animals handled by unprotected / poorly protected workers.

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    http://outbreaknewstoday.com/category/asia/

    Singapore reports over 2,000 dengue cases in first 6 weeks
    By News Desk
    By NewsDesk @infectiousdiseasenews With all the attention about COVID-19 in Singapore, and worldwide for that matter, Singapore saw 400 dengue fever cases during the week ending Feb. 8. During the first…

    Diamond Princess COVID-19 case total rises to 355, 2,000 additional cases in China
    By News Desk
    By NewsDesk @bactiman63 Japanese health authorities reported (computer translated) today that testing of people onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Yokohama Port revealed 70 additional COVID-19…

    COVID-19: Singapore reports 5 additional cases, total now 72
    By News Desk
    By NewsDesk @infectiousdiseasenews In Singapore, the Ministry of Health (MOH) has confirmed and verified five additional cases of COVID-19 infections. Of these, three are linked to the cluster at…

    Malaysia reports two additional COVID-19 cases, brings total to 21
    By News Desk
    By NewsDesk @infectiousdiseasenews The Malaysia Ministry of Health (MOH) announced two additional COVID-19 cases Saturday. The 20th case involved a 27-year-old Chinese citizen who arrived in Malaysia…

    So what are the odds this thing can be transmitted by mosquitoes? We’ve got Dengue in the low thousands so someone is getting bit… in an area with growing numbers of Covid-19 cases…

    It looks to me like the cat is out of the bag in areas where it will be very unlikely to be put back in… I don’t see us talking about stopping all flights from: Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, etc. etc. so with 1/2 the cases no/low symptoms, looks to me like “just a matter of time”. Yes? No?

  7. Octave Fiddler says:

    I’m struggling to integrate Istvan’s assertion (on WUWT) of ‘99%’ match (?) with a Pangolin version of the virus, with this business of lab escape.

    The fact that Zhengli Shi (sp?) syntehsized a highly virulent corona virus at UNC in 2008 makes it entirely plausible they were messing about with it in Wuhan.

    However, I cant reconcile the Pangolin angle and Shi’s freshly published assertion that blahblah ‘bats from elsewhere’ ?dodge? of responsibility.
    Plenty of documentation that the CCP has history and recent practise of forced ‘confessions’ or ‘re-attributions’ . Is Pango just chaff?
    Re; Dengue;
    My neighbor’s wild-child daughter got dengue over in Thailand, called home almost incoherent.. Her heroic mom (working from here) somehow(?) got her onto a plane to SIngapore, and met her there for extended hospitalization.
    Apparently Singapore is known as the place to go to survive Dengue.
    OF

  8. David A says:

    Confused by ‘ It requires perfect containment in the lab”
    ?

  9. E.M.Smith says:

    @O.F.:

    Nice to know should I ever get Dengue in Asia ;-)

    THE big problem with attributing source, ANY source, is that RNA Virus replication is sloppy (thus the frequent recombinations requiring a new flu vaccine each year) and can often cross species.

    So you find it looks just like a bit in Pangolin. Did they get it from snuffling bat droppings? Did bats get it from eating fruit where a pangolin shat? Or sneezed? Some bit matches some other bit from a lab: was a lab worker sloppy so “caught it” but didn’t notice, then sneezed while shopping for live food, and it went home with the unsold stock that evening (then to the farm population then into the wild, where it recombined into a new coronavirus).

    Parts just do not stay put in RNA viruses. They do not replicate perfectly either, so mutate fast. Especially in mixed species populations. Part of why new flu tends to come from Asia is that they farm pigs in pens over water so their waste fertilizes the water, then ducks are raised on the pond. Rapid virus cycling from birds to pigs to people and back, gives rapid recombination with other virus types in the various hosts. Then the successful one can hitch a ride on migratory birds to the rest of the world.

    Similarly, an exotic food animal dealer can have live stock of pangolin and bats housed near each other, sharing… (Chinese have an obsession with “fresh” that verges on the absurd. One fish dish has the chef grasp the head in a towel and deep fry the body, delivering it to the diner with the head still alive and gill plates moving…)

    In that context, with mixed live populations of exotic animals all over the place, trying to ascribe the path through the populations via one viral segment is a bit silly, and even 90-something % just hints at the first link, not the path.

    Virus populations are more like a stew of mystery parts than a steak of one thing. Then the Chinese animal practices give that stew lots of opportunities to jump species.

    So did the lab worker who was bat bit have “fresh” pangolin for dinner the night before and gave something new to the bats? Did the guy who slaughtered that bat later get the new mix in bat blood on his clothes? Or did they just go buy some live bats from the “fresh” food market that had them caged next to the pangolin?

    Messy? Yup. That’s the context for trying to sort out the path.

  10. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    The point is that a lab created segment is not the same as a lab created final virus. The segment, in for example some benign sniffles virus, can escape from the lab, then move to an animal population, recombine with some other virus parts making a whole new lethal virus that was never in the lab.

    To say the whole virus was a lab creation based on one lab segment requires that the segment was never able to take that path. It was always perfectly contained in the lab.

  11. cdquarles says:

    As I have said, one of the functions of viruses *is* cross species transmission of DNA/RNA such that no sequence gets lost to the whole system. Individuals, yes; species/sub species, yes; the whole system, no.

  12. cdquarles says:

    Also, just because a lab makes a sequence does *not* mean said sequence has never been seen before nor that the rest of nature can’t make it.

  13. M Simon says:

    E.M.,

    As you noted perfectly contained even in the lab, is difficult. Genes drift.

  14. M Simon says:

    China officially denies it.

    Chinese research lab denies rumours of links to first coronavirus patient
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050872/chinese-research-lab-denies-rumours-links-first-coronavirus

  15. M Simon says:

    My favorite conspiracy from the “China denies” link comments.

    robert.sherriff7@******
    The “virus” is allegedly a germ warfare agent developed in a Canadian laboratory near Winnipeg but stolen from there by implanted Chinese scientists and smuggled back to Wuhan in China.

  16. Bill In Oz says:

    1: Why does Singapore have more COVID 19 disease patients than Hong Kong ? ( And more than anywhere else except China & Japan ? ) Well Singapore is actively encouraging people to report if they get symptoms.. Health care is free and they get financial support. Hong Kong is not doing this. And BTW neither are Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, the Philippines…So I suggest there is a significant level of under reporting or even concealment happening in these countries.

    2 :Going to church might be a problem ! Three new infections of Singapore residents/citizens were members of the same congregation.

    this story from the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong : https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3050039/coronavirus-why-did-singapore-have-more-cases-hong

  17. M Simon says:

    If XXX country did it – can they be sued? It would ruin the 5 year plan of cough XXX cough country.

    Coronavirus “Did Not Start at the Wuhan Animal Market” – China’s Only Level 4 Super Lab “Is Only a Few Miles Away” – Sen. Tom Cotton Drops a BOMB on Sunday Morning Futures (VIDEO)
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/02/coronavirus-did-not-start-at-the-wuhan-animal-market-chinas-only-level-4-super-lab-is-only-a-few-miles-away-sen-tom-cotton-drops-a-bomb-on-sunday-morning-futures-video/

  18. Compu Gator says:

    E.M.Smith [said] 16 February 2020 at 9:39 pm [GMT]
    Part of why new flu tends to come from Asia is that they farm pigs in pens over water so their waste fertilizes the water, then ducks are raised on the pond.

    I hope that the transfer of viruses goes no farther than the ducks feeding on the plants that grow in the water. Doesn’t that Asian scheme of aquaculture have a 3rd physical level, in the pond, where bottom-feeding fish, notably tilapia, which also eat mostly plants, while growing to harvest-size in water that’s infused by the wastes of both virus hosts? Perhaps that’s an interspecies leap too far for viruses to make; the 3 zoological levels share only a phylum (i.e., Chordata).

    That 3rd zoological level is worth considering, because a distressingly large amount of seafood nowadays that’s available in the U.S.A. is supplied by China. Whether or not some variation on that aquaculture scheme includes filter-feeding shellfish, I simply refuse to buy any that’s marked as originating in China; I absolutely disqualify those customarily sold with the guts (e.g., clams, mussels, oysters, but not scallops), which include the liver-equivalent organs that concentrate toxins.

  19. E.M.Smith says:

    Yes, aquaculture is part of the cycle. Both shrimp and various fish (carp, catfish, tilapia, etc.). I left it out in the interest of brevity and the likely case that mammalian virus would be unlikely to go in fish.

    FWIW, I avoid seafood marked as coming from China too. Mostly due to their tendency to cheat things like sanitation and purity rules for a buck. Fake honey, lead paint on toys, etc. The odds that animal feeds would be polluted / adulterated approaches certainty over time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pig_toilet

    For example doesn’t meet my sanitation requirements for virus isolation.

    Fishpond toilet
    In China, “Family dwellings are commonly built close to the fish pond with toilets overhanging the pond to facilitate fertilization. … Some pigsties as well as latrines for humans are built on the adjacent dike so as to overhang the pond.” But by 1988, these fish pond toilets were falling out of favour, as the farmers found it more useful to ferment human and pig excrement together, and apply it to the aquaculture ponds as needed.

    In Vietnam, the traditional fish pond toilet, which was described as “widespread” as recently as 2008, polluted the waterways, but was perceived as more hygienic (less smelly) than various modern alternatives that the government was pressing on the villagers

  20. Another Ian says:

    Giving things a kick start

    “The cruise ship had been shunned at port after port for fear it might carry the coronavirus, but when the Westerdam arrived in Cambodia on Thursday, the prime minister greeted its passengers with flowers.

    Amid assurances that the ship was disease free, hundreds of elated passengers disembarked. Some went sightseeing, visiting beaches and restaurants and getting massages. Others traveled on to destinations around the world.

    One, however, did not make it much farther than the thermal scanners at the Kuala Lumpur airport in Malaysia. The passenger, an American, was stopped on Saturday, and later tested positive for the coronavirus.

    On Sunday, with passengers already headed for destinations on at least three continents, health officials were scrambling to determine how a big a problem they now have — and how to stop it from getting bigger.

    “We anticipated glitches, but I have to tell you I didn’t anticipate one of this magnitude,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

    With more than a thousand passengers from the Westerdam headed for home, Dr. Schaffner said, it may be harder than ever to keep the coronavirus outbreak contained to China. […]”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/02/16/its-probably-nothing-51/

  21. Octave Fiddler says:

    OK, as of 2/16, single day incremental rate of deaths/(deaths+recoveries) in Hubei (epicenter province) is 9%. Previous rates before the big shift in ‘confirmation criteria’ were maybe ~20%.
    All previous provisos apply here, regarding dubious data and my own errors.
    Time will tell if this is another false hope of the lower death rate learning curve in overwhelmed settings.
    OF

  22. Larry Ledwick says:

    A bit more on farm food waste due to transport problems and the inevitable secondary results of a boom in vermin population as they have these uncontrolled food banquets set up for them to dine on.

    It looks like the prevailing decision points are always short term expedient with no consideration of down stream consequences.

  23. Larry Ledwick says:

    Travel restrictions are also blocking essential animal feed – resulting in slaughter of millions of chickens.

  24. Larry Ledwick says:

    China is issuing force majeure certificates.

  25. Larry Ledwick says:

    Key numbers beginning to come out on SARS-COV-2

  26. Bill In Oz says:

    If Corona viruses all apparently thrive in cold humid conditions and die in hot conditions,
    A great suggestion would be to turn the bloody heat & knock it over!.
    In the depth of Winter in Wuhan in China I wonder if many people have been saving money on Electricity or gas while locked up in their apartments and many unable to work, and setting the Apartment temperature to something a lot lower.
    NB : In support of this idea, I notice that none of the Australians ‘rescued’ from Wuhan who have Been under quarantine on tropical Xmas island for the past 14 days have became infected. ( Multiple tests each day )
    And now all are going home tonight with an authorised document that testifies to them being clear Of the virus. !

  27. Bill In Oz says:

    PS : this totalled 270 people of varying ethnic backgrounds
    Citizens & Australian permanent residents

  28. E.M.Smith says:

    Seems Nissan has shut down some car assembly operations. The wiring harness comes from China and they have run out…

    Expect a lot more of this as JIT becomes stock-outs.

  29. Foyle says:

    Bill: China has/had? state rules that prohibit heating in houses south of a fixed line:
    https://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-china-heat-20141115-story.html

  30. E.M.Smith says:

    Maybe time for daily cinnamon buns?

    From: https://www.iceagenow.info/can-cinnamon-eliminate-or-prevent-viruses/

    A link to: https://www.foxnews.com/health/cinnamon-may-protect-against-infection-study-finds

    Which says:

    A preliminary study out of Touro College in New York suggests that household cinnamon may possess antiviral effects and help prevent infection in humans.

    According to a news release, Dr. Milton Schiffenbauer, of the New York School of Career and Applied Studies, a division of Touro College & University System, and his team compared Saign and Ceylon cinnamons to other botanic extracts including onion, cloves, peppermint, cocoa and Spanish saffron.

    While cinnamon appeared to deactivate viruses in some organisms, the other extracts did not.

    Researchers evaluated the extracts against Phi X, a virus that infects bacteria and shares various similarities to viruses that infect animals and humans. After 24 hours of incubation, an extract with 10 percent cinnamon deactivated 99.9 percent to 100 percent of the virus following only 10 minutes of intermittent mixing, according to the news release.

    Schiffenbauer said in the news release that his colleagues’ findings suggest that cinnamon extract has the power to damage the structure of the PhiX virus.

    “The results validates (sic) our belief that a diet that includes a tablespoon of cinnamon once or twice a day can be effective in eliminating or preventing viruses from infecting humans and causing sickness, such as colds, flu, and even herpes,” he said.

    Though a tablespoon a day might be a bit much….

  31. Bill In Oz says:

    EM The cheapest and readily available kind of cinnamon is Casia cinnamon. This is loaded with Coumarin, a wolfarin analogue and also a blood thinnner..
    Be careful with it.

    And a lot of the Sri Lankan cinnamon sol, which does not have coumatin in it, is in fact Cassia cinnamon sold under false label.

    Fruit of personal experience !

  32. Bill In Oz says:

    Foyle, Interesting story ! Where is Wuhan in relation to that line ? Is it North or South of that line ?

  33. jim2 says:

    Excluding China, 5 deaths out of 133 diagnosed cases for a 3.8% death rate.

  34. cdquarles says:

    33 degrees N latitude …. that runs a bit south of me. Average Jan lows are 35F where I am, but the range is quite wide, from below zero F (record) to 60s F (record) and highs from the teens F to 70s F. A human exposed to the elements can and has died here from hypothermia, with outside air in the 50s F.

    Per worldatlas.com, the latitude is 30.58 degrees N (about the same latitude as Mobile, AL). See here: https://www.worldatlas.com/as/cn/42/where-is-wuhan.html.

  35. Bill In Oz says:

    In China, Korea & Japan
    It’s been a cold hard Winter this year !
    Reportedly the virus thrives in cold weather
    And dies in warm conditions.
    So I wonder what temperatures the cabins on this cruise ship
    have been set at ?
    And I wonder what temperatures the appartments and hospital wards in Wuhan
    Have been set to ?
    Maybe the difference in infections and disease
    In the various locations where this disease has appeared
    ARE DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE IN CABIN ROOMS OR HOSPITAL WARDS OR APARTMENTS ?
    And in Singapore maybe it is time to turn off the A/C ?

  36. E.M.Smith says:

    I think the assertion of heat liable may be over estimated. This article is about SARS1 not SARS2 but they are similar.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3509683/

    37 C it starts to fade, but up into the 50 C range can be needed if it is in organic stuff.

    Thus, at 20 °C, aerosolized HCoV 229E was found to better survive at 50% relative humidity than at 30%. Indeed, nearly 20% of the original infectious virus was still detectable after six days. High relative humidity seemed less favorable to the virus, unless the temperature came down to 6 °C. At this temperature, the survival of the HCoV 229E was significantly enhanced whatever the rate of relative humidity. This enhanced survival rate at high relative humidity and low temperature may explain the winter propagation of coronaviruses. Moreover, the HCoV 229E survival was significantly higher at 30% and 50% of relative humidity than those of the poliovirus in the same experimental conditions, which could be a striking result according to its non-enveloped nature [104].

    Sensitivity of SARS-CoV to temperature has also been assayed. The exposure of the virus to a temperature of 56 °C over 30 min reduced virus titer under an undetectable level, except if SARS-CoV is associated with proteins, such as 20% fetal calf serum (FCS), which bring a protection for the virus. In this case, the temperature needs to reach 60 °C over 30 min to bring virus titer below the detection limit. This emphasizes the importance of organic material in which viruses could be embedded in the real conditions and could protect the virus, mostly from disinfection procedures. When the virus was placed at 4 °C, there was no loss of infectivity [105]. Another study confirms the viral stability at 4 °C, and also at 20 °C and 37 °C for at least 2 hrs, but SARS-CoV lost its infectivity after 90, 60 and 30 min exposure at 56 °C, 67 °C and 75 °C, respectively

  37. jim2 says:

    “Excluding China, 5 deaths out of 133 diagnosed cases for a 3.8% death rate.”

    That should have been, excluding China, of the diagnosed cases with a known outcome.

  38. Octave Fiddler says:

    Well, between 2-16 and 2-17 in Hubei province, 1223 diagnosed cases recovered, and 93 died, which is another improvement from the top of thread comments, now at 7.1% daily rate, in the hardest hit province.
    This is data from
    https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_daily_reports

    From the other site
    https://covid19info.live/
    they have a daily summation from all of mainland China.
    Between 2-16 and 2-17, the total recoveries went from 10853 to 12561,
    and deaths went from 1772 to 1870, so [ deaths/(deaths+recoveries) ] is down to 5.4% incremental death rate,
    If there is not a discrepancy between the two views, only 5 died in china outside Hubei,
    (vs. 93 from Hubei.,)
    and 485 non-Hubei Chinese recovered,
    so for that group the one-day D/(D+R) is 1%.
    I’m getting prepared to be more optimistic about mortality anyway, although morbidity is still ?

    As Jim2 said, this is for acknowledged cases, probably hospitalized.
    I imagine it is early to be assessing this rate outside china, as the numbers are small and it might be early in their local learning curves.

    OF

  39. M Simon says:

    The trade war is getting too expensive.

    China to offer trade war tariff exemptions on 700 US farm, medical, energy products amid coronavirus
    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3051120/china-offer-trade-war-tariff-exemptions-700-us-farm-medical

  40. M Simon says:

    China restarting business too soon?

  41. M Simon says:

    Diplo speak for – “they are lying their a**es off”

    World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Chinese data “appear to show a decline in new cases” but any apparent trend “must be interpreted very cautiously”.
    https://www.oann.com/coronavirus-infections-slow-in-china-as-apple-warns-of-iphone-shortages/

  42. H.R. says:

    M Simon says:
    18 February 2020 at 9:22 am
    The trade war is getting too expensive.
    China to offer trade war tariff exemptions on 700 US farm, medical, energy products amid coronavirus

    Well, they’re shut down and need our stuff, particularly food.

    What I don’t understand is how China will distribute whatever they get. There was already a comment or two in this series that showed produce lying on the ground, rotting. And there was also a mention of a million chickens killed because there was no feed.

    So, yeah, it’s probably a play to get the U.S. to reciprocate on tariffs using the Coronavirus situation for some sympathy action… and they need our stuff right now.

  43. E.M.Smith says:

    A very good update with financial impact projections. 40 minutes:

    Includes text from referenced journals.

    IMHO, there’s no way in hell this thing wraps up this quarter (next month) AND the present “return to work” is very premature given: superspreaders, up to 24 day incubation, 6 to 9 day fomite survival, and the lack of test kits / detection of minor symptom cases.

    Mark your calendars for about a March 1 spike in new cases and factory shutdowns… IMHO.

    Then figure global product shortages starting about the same time as the Chinese New Year outage inventory build is used up and warehouses empty. We ought to find out pretty soon who is / was too dependent on China. Perhaps checking availability of items on Amazon will be a quick check… Apple has already announced an iPhone miss.

  44. E.M.Smith says:

    Dr. John Campbell looks at a W.H.O. news release, plus info from a medical analytics group.

    IMHO, not good. Up to half the people who gets the virus can be asymptomatic. Once in the urban poor populations of the world, it will be unstoppable, and it is likely already in those populations.

    He also looks at The Forbidden Experiment accidentally run on the cruuse ship. Clearly it spreads in that environment even with folks staying in their rooms. So either via deliveries of food and supplies by asymptomatic staff, or via ventilation and such. The necessary conclusion from this is that highrise hotels, offices, and appartment blocks will act similarly. I predict a booming interest in UV sources in plenum air return ducts…

    The only good news is that mortality is likely lower since so many are asymptomatic or not tested. So China gets about a 15% CFR on the self selected very sick, but that exclude about 80% of the infected. So figue about 15/5=3% as more likely. Still, 3% of 60% infected the first year, of 340 Million in the USA would be 6 million dead… We need to keep this thing out until treatements that work are in hand in quantity and vaccination for the most at risk (even if experimental) exists.

    This WILL get into some big high rise tower somewhere, then it WILL infect dozens to hundreds before detection, then that will shut down a major urban core. Rinse and repeat? Or be very aggressive at stopping it? Our Political Class will be deciding for us… and that’s the scariest thing of all

  45. H.R. says:

    E.M.: “We ought to find out pretty soon who is / was too dependent on China.”

    I’ve already figured that China’s shutdown will affect many U.S. businesses in the short term because the U.S. businesses will have line-stopping shortages of China-supplied components.

    In the long run,President Trump’s stated goal and supporting policies is to bring manufacturing back to America. Once this flu virus clears out, the reshoring of manufacturing jobs will accelerate.

    The tariffs on Chinese goods was already having an effect, but this shutdown is an exclamation point to businesses to find alternative suppliers outside of China and definitely some U.S. suppliers.

  46. E.M.Smith says:

    There’s a point that I’ve seen intuitively, but I think it deserves formal statement:

    About half the cases are asymptomatic in total or for a long time.
    RO is about 4 to 6 for all cases.
    That means about an R0 of 2 for asymptomatic to asymptomatic spreading only.

    The necessary conclusion is that finding and stoping symptomatic spreading is insufficient to stop the virus from exponentially expanding.

    Until you quaratine / detect / stop the asymptomatic chain, you are failing.

    I think this is why China went to such dramatic quarantines.

    @H.R.:

    Yes, eventually it will grow the USA industrial base. But getting there will be rocky.

  47. David A says:

    you quaratine / detect / stop the asymptomatic chain, you are failing”. ” tI think this is why China went to such dramatic quarantines”

    I understand that, I do not understand placing all ” likely exposed” asymptomatic groups in tight group quarters; thousands of beds in large space facilities, with limited large public restrooms. No wonder many are hiding from the authorities. Quarrantine should be isolation from groups, private Aur and restroom facilities.

  48. Ossqss says:

    Below is some supplimental detail coming out. Based on this same site’s statistics, it appears the % of recovery to death is currently 88% to 12%.

    Here is a breakdown

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

  49. Ossqss says:

    Considering the discusstions of transmission via the fecal part of the equation, could fart fans be a vector? Heck, just farts in general?

  50. E.M.Smith says:

    Fart fans? When almost brown stuff meets whirly blades?

  51. Ossqss says:

    Ok, perhaps I could have used better terminology. Bathroom ventilation fans, AKA fart fans in the industry.

  52. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    Yeah, forced daily close contact germ exchange vs isolation and patience. I don’t get it either as new cases swamp the cost of private rooms or plastic bubbles…

  53. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    I’m now glad I didn’t ask about my other potential interpretation:
    Folks fond of fart sniffing?

    OK, what I know as exhaust fans:

    IMHO, some but not a lot. They dump air out a roof ventilation stack UV ought to kill it there,, or isolation and time.

    Don’t know if big highrise buildings with shared stacks can have back flush into some bathrooms…

    In that case, yeah. The flush mist up the stack on the 3rd floor leaking back into 2nd and 4th…. so would depend on design quality of the vent stack.

    I’ve had room to room leakage in some hotels where cigarette smoke smell indicated the cross contamination from someone “on the other pot”. I could hear their fan on, mine not, so had to turn mine on. In poor design places like that, yes.

    (Note to self: leave bath fan on if forced to stay in a hotel…)

  54. Ossqss says:

    @EM, you would be suprised how many of those fans just push into open space above the room involved., as you experienced. You can usually get an idea by looking at the blade level mold and dirt accumulation.

    Similar scenarios frequently play out with home kitchen hood vents. Many just circulate back into a room through some filtration medium.

  55. E.M.Smith says:

    The hotel in question had the bathroom of the next room over sharing a big pipe with my room, both joining a vertical to other floors only thing blocking other room’s air was friction around the fan blades (when stopped). You could see this through the wall fan.

    Near as I can tell, that one did vent (exhaust shower steam in The Humid South… L.A.) instead of just into a cieling plenum (California desert…)… BUT someone sharing the pipe was smoking in the bathroom. I had a non-smoking room, so suspect they were cheating as smoking rooms were sold out. (Or were one of those folks who must smoke to “go”…) and their fan + smoke was pressurized in the pipe and backflushing into my room (assessed via ear to fan, nose to space leading to wall fan, confirmed via fan turn on).

    This has big implications for virus spread. As does the 90% air recycle in pretty much all central AC commercial buildings.

  56. M Simon says:

    EMS,, 18 February 2020 at 3:55 pm

    Link mentioned in video at about 26 mins in.
    https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-industrially-necessary-doctor-tedros/

  57. E.M.Smith says:

    Well this isn’t good… just saw where ONLY NOW will the USA start testing for SARS-CoV-2 / Covid-19 among folks presenting with “flu like symptoms” and only in selected cities. San Francisco, Chicago, NYC, and a few others. In other words, we have no clue how much of it is in the country as, unless you came here from China, we didn’t look.

    OK….

  58. M Simon says:

    Blood Oxygen (finger) meters are quite clever. They use two LEDs at different light frequencies Two LEDs are used as sensors and there is a little display plus a microprocessor and battery. Oxygen is calculated with multiplies, divides, adds, and subtracts of the two light frequency intensities. Pulse frequency is figured out by taking a FFT of the data. Look for the peak.

  59. M Simon says:

    China decrees.

    “As soon as the number of infections shows a consistent decline, and the disease is being effectively contained, individual localities should take the opportunity to lower or lift their emergency response.”
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051236/china-takes-new-steps-help-revive-coronavirus-hit-economy

    As soon as measures appear effective – quit using them. This is insanity. Panic thinking with conflicting goals.

  60. Octave Fiddler says:

    Welp, the overnite (Feb 18-Feb17 differential) Hubei (death/[death+recover] ) fraction is 0.0944.
    I guess the ‘good news’ is the data is at least noisy, not monotonic decreasing…

  61. M Simon says:

    Does this sound like the outbreak is subsiding?

    Coronavirus: Veterans deployed as China death toll exceeds 2,000
    Tens of thousands of army veterans head to front line of outbreak
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051250/coronavirus-mainland-death-toll-hits-2000-132-more-fatalities

  62. Another Ian says:

    “Coronavirus demographics — very much a risk for older people and the strange split in severe case rates 0 – 15%”

    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/coronavirus-demographics-very-much-a-risk-for-older-people-and-the-strange-split-in-severe-case-rate/#comments

  63. Gail Combs says:

    DARN! I put this on the older thread…

    I did this for the other website and thought you guys might want more info on the woman who told her friend there were 1000+ cases in 35 states but does not want to test for the disease in the USA.

    NANCY MESSONNIER
    She is head of the National Center for IMMUNIZATION and Respiratory Diseases
    She is likely a Senior Exec or equivalent (SES is NOT disclosed to the public)

    The CDC is one of the major operating components of the Department of Health and Human Services. The head of the Department of Health and Human Services is appointed and confirmed by the Senate.

    The CDC Director, is appointed by the president and does not require Senate approval.

    ….

    What else can we learn about this woman who decides whether we will be warned or not?

    The National Center for IMMUNIZATION and Respiratory Diseases… “….formerly known as the National Immunization Program until April 2006, is charged with responsibility for the planning, coordination, and conduct of immunization activities in the United States…..” — WIKI

    “….Since beginning her public health career in 1995 as an Epidemic Intelligence Service Officer in the Deputy Director for Infectious Diseases (DDID), Dr. Messonnier has held a number of leadership posts across CDC and within NCIRD. [ National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases]

    She played a pivotal role in the successful public-private partnership to develop and implement a low cost vaccine to prevent epidemic meningococcal meningitis in Africa.More than 150 million people in the African Meningitis Belt have been vaccinated with MenAfriVac since 2010, with remarkable impact…..”
    https://www.cdc.gov/about/leadership/leaders/ncird.html

    She is a captain in the Epidemic Intelligence Service
    “The Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) is a program of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Established in 1951 by Alexander Langmuir, it arose from biological warfare concerns relating to the Korean War.” — WIKI

    “EIS officers serve on the front lines of public health, protecting Americans and the global community, while training under the guidance of seasoned mentors. When disease outbreaks or other public health threats emerge, EIS officers investigate, identify the cause, rapidly implement control measures, and collect evidence to recommend preventive actions.”
    *https://www.cdc.gov/eis/what-eis-officers-do/index.html

    rapidly implement control measures??? 🤣

    She is a (Non-voting) Member of ’Vaccinate Your Family’ The website of Vaccinate Your Family is a member of the WHO-led project Vaccine Safety Net (VSN). The Vaccine Safety Net is a global network of websites, established by the World Health Organization, that provides reliable information on vaccine safety. I can find nothing on who the donors are.
    *https://www.vaccinateyourfamily.org/staff_board/nancy-messonnier-md-capt-usphs/

    ….

    So she is very pro-vaccination, connected to WHO, and possibly has more allegiance in that direction than to the USA.

  64. Gail Combs says:

    Given the SHTF about McCabe, an Obama SES, one of the questions I had is she also Obama SES?
    ….

    As of 2015, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had 10,796 employees. 29 are Senior Executive Service.
    *https://www.federalpay.org/employees/centers-for-disease-control-and-preventn

    CDC organization:
    *https://www.cdc.gov/about/organization/cio.htm

    And what do you know, there are 29 heads plus the appointed CDC Director in the organizational chart. So the likelihood of Nancy Messonnier and the rest being Senior Executive Service is close to 100%.

    Is the CDC union??
    Well Health and Human Services is.
    AFGE Local 1923, is the largest federal union in the country “…representing approximately 30,000 employees nationwide that are employed in the Social Security Administration, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (formally HCFA), Veterans Affairs, Department of Defense, and the National Mediation Board….” (So the Mediation Board is unionized too. Oh joy.)
    *https://www.afge.org/about-us/agencies/HHS/

    Back to Nancy.
    ”…She served as Deputy Director of NCIRD from October 2014-March 2016…”
    *https://www.cdc.gov/about/leadership/leaders/ncird.html

    ”…In 2018, Nancy Ellen Messonnier was a Medical Officer at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia. began working at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2017 with a starting salary of $260,567….”
    *https://www.federalpay.org/employees/centers-for-disease-control-and-preventn/messonnier-nancy-ellen

    So it looks like she moved up to the director job in April 2016. Her salary class is ”RF-00 under the code for use by hhs only.” In other words her true grade is hidden since the serfs are not allowed to know.

    This woman does not give me the warm fuzzies. I think the likelihood that, thanks to requests for test kits, she has a pretty good idea of how many and where suspect cases are. So I would rate those screen shots as very likely true.

  65. Gail Combs says:

    Above I mentioned the Senior Executive Service (SES)

    Because the Senior Executive Service has special privileges above and beyond that of regular federal employees, some think it is the core of the ‘Deep State.’ Obama appointed over 7,000 of the 8,156 federal employees in the Senior Executive Service. According to some, most of these appointees do not arise from inside the respective agencies through a merit system and there are many more SES appointees than any other type of political appointment. WORSE unlike other political appointees once hired they can not be fired as McCabe and Strzok are busy proving to us. This means the MANAGERS of the Trump Administration are actually Obama appointees. For example McCabe, the former deputy director of the FBI was SES.

    December 15, 2015 Obama Executive Order:
    STRENGTHENING THE SENIOR EXECUTIVE SERVICE
    https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/12/15/executive-order-strengthening-senior-executive-service

    The Senior Executive Service (SES) lead America’s workforce. As the keystone of the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978, the SES was established to “…ensure that the executive management of the Government of the United States is responsive to the needs, policies, and goals of the Nation and otherwise is of the highest quality.” These leaders possess well-honed executive skills and share a broad perspective on government and a public service commitment that is grounded in the Constitution.

    Members of the SES serve in the key positions just below the top Presidential appointees. SES members are the major link between these appointees and the rest of the Federal workforce. They operate and oversee nearly every government activity in approximately 75 Federal agencies.
    https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/senior-executive-service/

    This is an article on the SES:
    *https://www.thenewamerican.com/print-magazine/item/29089-they-decide-what-government-does

    This is a conspiracy site but it shows the actual documents if you want to know more a bit more about the SES:
    *http://themillenniumreport.com/2018/03/shadow-government-exposed-underbelly-is-spelled-senior-executive-service/

  66. Gail Combs says:

    daughn just shared this:

  67. Gail Combs says:

    Daughn also just posted this. (She has a small business and contacts all over the world including China and India.)

    ‘….have quarantined themselves at home after returning from mainland China to curtail the new coronavirus, adding to an epidemic response that is straining already-stretched local departments.

    More than 5,400 people had been asked to self-quarantine in California alone as of Feb. 14, according to the California Department of Public Health. Hundreds more are self-quarantining in Georgia, Washington state, Illinois, New York and other states.….”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-has-u-s-cities-stretching-to-monitor-self-quarantined-americans-11582108203

  68. E.M.Smith says:

    We will know the real state of USA cases when the ICU count rises…

    FWIW, we are stocked up for a 2 to 3 month lock down, but waiting before doing it.

    Right now just doing very limited outings / shopping and avoiding crowed places. Wipes in the car, but not yet using a mask. Basically going with the odds of 1 in a million…

    Oh, and shopping (only to replenish stocking level) at local smaller shops, not at the big box with 5000 people per day from the whole area and crowded isles).

  69. Gail Combs says:

    Good luck to you and yours E.M. and to the rest of the wonderful people here.

    You have a lot of people who read here but comment at the political site I am now frequenting. IIRC Daughn and a few others have some very large facebook groups they manage so the info is spreading.

  70. Gail Combs says:

    The China virus is now chasing Hillary!

  71. E.M.Smith says:

    Maybe we’ll find out who’s taking (dirty) Chinese cash ;-)

  72. rhoda klapp says:

    Don’t worry about the cash, Chief. It’s been laundered.

  73. E.M.Smith says:

    IceAgeNow is getting some interesting Covid-19 / SARS-CoV-2 coverage:

    https://www.iceagenow.info/746-people-in-washington-now-under-supervision-for-coronavirus/

    746 people in Washington now under supervision for coronavirus
    February 19, 2020 by Robert
    What in the hell do they mean by “under supervision?”

    These are the folks from the diaspora flying out of China before the flights were cut off (about a month too late, IMHO)

    There’s likely several thousand near me in the highly Asian San Francisco / Silicon Valley connected areas. Ditto Los Angeles, Chicago, NYC, etc.

    These folks are voluntarily self quaranteened at home. Some percentage will be in shared ventilation appartment blocks, but hopefully not many… Some percentage will be answering their door. Hopefully not many. Some percentage will not worry about talking to beighbors over the fence or balcony to balcony, like on the cruise ships… Hpoefully not many.

    “But hope is not a strategy. – E.M.Smith”

    The article links too:

    https://www.khq.com/news/nearly-people-in-washington-now-under-supervision-for-coronavirus/article_4930fbe6-52b0-11ea-95b4-cf8a103af7b5.html

    Nearly 750 people in Washington now under supervision for coronavirus
    Feb 18, 2020 Updated 20 hrs ago

    Another 34 people in Washington state are now under public health supervision for coronavirus.

    The total now stands at 746 people who are at risk of having been exposed to novel coronavirus, according to the Washington State Department of Health. That number is up from 712 on Monday, Feb. 17. This includes people who are close contacts of laboratory confirmed cases and people who have returned from China in the past 14 days.

    There is still only one case of confirmed coronavirus that was present in Snohomish County. That patient has since been released from the hospital following treatment.

    There is one person in the state still awaiting test results. Test results for another 24 people turned up negative.

    The Department of Health offered the following steps that can be taken, which prevent the spread of flu, the common cold and help prevent coronavirus:

    Wash hands often with soap and water. If not available, use hand sanitizer.
    Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth with unwashed hands.
    Avoid contact with people who are sick.
    Stay home while you are sick and avoid close contact with others.
    Cover your mouth/nose with a tissue or sleeve when coughing or sneezing.

    Notably absent from the list: avoid asymptomatic spreaders or folks quaranteened less than 24 days…

    https://www.iceagenow.info/26-people-quarantined-in-homes-in-westchester-county-ny/

    Westchester County is located just north of New York City.

    None of the travelers, who just returned from China, is showing any symptoms of the coronavirus, according to abc7ny.com.

    Eyewitness News has been told that the quarantine is voluntary and out of an abundance of caution.

    https://abc7ny.com/health/26-quarantined-in-westchester-county-over-coronavirus-concerns/5944654/

    Thanks to Jack Hydrazine for this link

    The source article link pops an annoying commercial…

    Wednesday, February 19, 2020 9:49AM
    WESTCHESTER COUNTY (WABC) — Officials say 26 people are being quarantined in their homes in Westchester County over coronavirus concerns.

    The travelers just returned to Westchester from China.

    Health officials say no one is showing any symptoms of the coronavirus, and the quarantine is voluntary and out of an abundance of caution.

    The county Department of Health is making sure the people have food, medication and whatever else they need during the time of quarantine.

    Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses, some of which cause the common cold. Others found in bats, camels and other animals have evolved into more severe illnesses.

    WHAT YOU CAN DO TO STAY SAFE:
    -Do what you would do to protect yourself from the flu
    -Wash hands – stay away from sick people who are coughing or sneezing
    -Clean with bleach – no green products
    -Cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze
    -The US Government is telling people not to go to China
    -Get your flu shot

    Their advice is dodgy too. A flu shot is useless for SARS-2. NO green product? Um, organic green ethanol will work just fine. Everclear is a great field expedient.

    Then again completely missing the asymptomatic carriers problem.

    So of the many thousands of folks who flew here from China during the open window, what are the odds none of them become ill or low / no symptom superspreaders? None take over 14 days to show?

  74. E.M.Smith says:

    As a reminder:

    Anyone who didn’t huild a food storage system yet, for 7+ hours more, during the Trump rally, they have a half off sale on prepper food buckets:

    http://prepare2020.com that redirected me to:

    https://mypatriotsupply.com/pages/prepare2020?utm_source=PA.Trump.Rally&utm_medium=PA.Trump.Rally&utm_campaign=PA.Trump.Rally

    1 week $39 and one month (4 week) supply for $197

  75. Larry Ledwick says:

    Hi there everyone.I have returned to the planet.
    I got stupid and had a bit of food poisoning, (it is going to be a long time before I find pinto beans appetizing) and was a very unhappy camper for a few days.
    I pretty much just cut myself off and went into isolation, and slept for about 20 – 22 hours a day.

    First time I have actually sat down at the computer for more than a few seconds in days.

    If you quit drinking water you will start passing out – don’t do that
    Acid touchy stomach is greatly helped by taking 250+ mg of magnesium, kills most of the acid and makes your stomach a lot less touchy.
    Mixed up some ORS last night and that really turned things around, I actually wanted to drink some.

    1 Liter bottle,
    1/2 cup tang powder
    1/2 cup sugar
    1 tsp table salt
    1/2 tsp morton’s light salt (high in potassium)
    Mix well and chill,

    Oral Rehydration Solution strives for an isotonically balances mixture that absorbs really efficiently (almost as efficient as an IV) The mix above is just a tad too strong for my taste but is easy to remember, so I take a couple swallows then chase with clear water. With the orange flavor of the tang, gives you Vit C and what tastes like fresh squeezed orange juice

    https://rehydrate.org/solutions/homemade.htm

  76. ossqss says:

    Glad to see you resurface Larry. Was about to get a search party together :-)

    Half a cup of Tang and sugar? That is a bunch in a liter bottle. I would imagine that you could make adobe bricks out of that?

  77. E.M.Smith says:

    Nice recipe. And I have all that stuff too!

    Sorry to hear your food bit back. Bad pintos, eh? That’s a bummer. Restaurant or self inflicted?

    BTW, it is possible to rehydrate via enima, even using sea water. The colon sucks shit dry (literally!) and can pump water up hill from saline. So pack an enima kit on your ocean going boat.

    When you can’t even hold water down, you can sometimes hold it in the other end a while.

    So welcome back.

    I’d wondered what happened, but hoped it was just work stuff. Oh Well.

    FWIW, one of my favorite upset tummy foods is “Pobs” or “Midnight Stew”. Just a couple of slices of bread, torn into chunks, sprinkled with sugar, and warm milk poured over. Often my first food post “issues”, and a fairly complete meal nutritionally.

  78. Larry Ledwick says:

    Thanks! If you look at the official recipe it is strong but by using the dilute with a chaser, you get what you need. Last night I was looking for the quick energy boost as much as rehydration. We used to do about the same thing with Gator Aid at marathon. The official mix would make most people sick but they would automatically dilute it as necessary if we took a glass of Gator Aid, and chugged a couple gulps of it ,then tossed that cup and grabbed a plain water which they always put on the second table.

    Maybe 1/3 cup each for a first batch then adjust for personal taste.

  79. Larry Ledwick says:

    Sorry to hear your food bit back. Bad pintos, eh?

    No user error, I got in a hurry and ate something I should have just tossed.

  80. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    Tang, mixed per directions, is a nearly saturated sugar solution. This looks to me like a swap of half regular Tang for just suger (making flavor more mild), then Sodium and Potassium salt to isotonic.

    @Larry, one question:

    There are 2 lite salt mixes. Straight KCl and 50:50 NaCl : KCl. I’m assuming the pure KCl, yes?

  81. E.M.Smith says:

    My Tang tub says it makes 22 quarts and weighs 72 ounces, so 3 1/4 oz per quart, roughly. It has an included scoop I lost some time ago, and only gives amounts in scoops, so it is a guess how much that is in volume.

    Sugar is about the density of water, so 1/2 cup Tang is likely close to 3 or 4 ounces. Which makes me think a cup of Tang+Sugar (as Tang is mostly sugar) has got to be at or very near saturation.

  82. Larry Ledwick says:

    I use the Morton “Lite salt” “serving size = 1/4 tsp or 1.4 gm)
    Which is supposedly 290 mg NcL and 350 mg or KCL so it is pretty close to 50% / 50% mix.

    I just mix it with normal salt at about a 1:2 ratio (KCl / NaCl to make sure I get my postassium

    I’ve seen several different formulas for ORS and they never seem to resolve to the same solution concentrations.

    It is an interesting story of incremental discoveries and changes in methods which now save something like 500 million lives a year in the third world. I just cobbled together a mix that works for me.

    https://www.hydralyte.com/why-hydralyte/the-history-of-oral-rehydration-therapy/

    https://apps.who.int/medicinedocs/en/d/Js4950e/2.4.html
    https://www.who.int/maternal_child_adolescent/documents/fch_cah_06_1/en/

    I’ll wait for you chemist types to dig into this and give me an updated summary (my brain is only working on about 3 cylinders right now)

    Keeping in mind the average home owner is going to be using sucrose instead of glucose (unless they are a brewer) This mix above has worked for me for a quick start solution to get your body to start taking food again may not be perfect but good enough to get ou out of bed and willing to walk to the fridge to get a few ounces of fluid.

  83. Gail Combs says:

    Larry,
    Glad you are feeling better.

    My go to for a nasty tummy is
    Ginger (I keep crystalized on hand as well as fresh ginger root.) ginger ale

    Yogurt: puts the correct bacteria back in the gut
    ….
    RICE:
    Rice water is used for re-hydrating in cholera per WHO. One of the ladies mentioned her oriental neighbors used rice water for just about everything.

    Resistant starch aka Rice:
    *https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/9-foods-high-in-resistant-starch
    (I no longer have the URL for this)

    I’m afraid you’ve got it wrong with respect to resistant starch and SIBO. It’s not as simple as “giving bacteria food to ferment”- first of all, resistant starch selectively feeds beneficial bacteria in the gut, and the fermentation process does not happen until the starch reaches the colon. Since the RS is not used as an energy source by bacteria in the small intestine, it does not contribute to SIBO (standing for small intestinal bacterial overgrowth). Not only does it not feed the bacteria in the small intestine, but many strains of pathogenic and all tested strains of beneficial bacteria that I have seen have shown to adhere to the starch, thus carrying them out of the small intestine and into the large intestine where they can be excreted in feces. So it reduces levels of pathogens, is selectively used by beneficial bacteria, reduces levels of bacteria in the small intestine, increases butyrate production, and restores the integrity of tight junctions (if leaky gut develops from your SIBO, which is likely). Additionally, the SCFA (short-chain fatty acids) produced by RS digestion increases the frequency of peristaltic contractions of the ileum, which would again probably aid in the expulsion of bacteria from the small intestine. For some reason, it seems that everybody “knows” that RS is bad for SIBO, and yet I have yet to find a single scrap of information to support this clam, and plenty to think that such a claim might not be true at all. Notice that all the sites that http://www.siboinfo.com/diet.html uses as references simply advocate a FODMAPS diet, which actually does not contraindicate starches at all!

    Again, to recap: RS removes bacteria from the small intestine and selectively feeds beneficial bacteria which results in butyrate production and proper function of tight junctions (thus relief from leaky gut).
     
    Sources:
    *http://aem.asm.org/content/66/10/4212.full (For actual photograph taken of bacteria adhering to resistant starch)
    *http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-*nrwftWdm2oc/UlAcLZOrl6I/AAAAAAAABgQ/MlBCO7sRcBs/s1600/RS+effects+chart+list.png
    *thescipub.com/pdf/10.3844/ajassp.2013.313.321
    *http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC93045/
    *http://aem.asm.org/content/71/8/4850.full.pdf
    *http://drbganimalpharm.blogspot.com/2013/09/feeding-microbiota-non-starch.html
    *http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC93045/
    *http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23470164
    *http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FBJN%2FBJN84_05%2FS0007114500002038a.pdf&code=05a58be57836326f3d961c531b3262e2

     
    I think I got that from Sabretoothed BTW.

  84. Larry Ledwick says:

    Okay dug out a new bottle of Tang, normal mix are for 1 cup (2 level tablespoon tang powder
    For one quart half a cap which abased on the above would be 8 level tablespoons powder.
    2 quarts mixture use full cap, which should be about 18 tablespoons of tang powder.

    1 US quart = 0.94635295 liters
    1 liters = 1.0566882 US quarts

    For the mixing precision for such a recipe looks like 8 tablespoons per liter or quart is the intended mix for Tang.

  85. Gail Combs says:

    For straight KCl you can use NoSalt by French’s.

    Caffeine will make you purge potassium so staying away from caffeine until you are back to normal is probably a good idea.

    https://www.mayoclinic.org/symptoms/low-potassium/basics/causes/sym-20050632

    Coffee-induced Hypokalaemia
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3046007/

    I found I had to go to decaf tea to keep my potassium levels high enough to keep my blood pressure down.

  86. ossqss says:

    Ok, so here is the real question. Can you put Tang in beer and achieve the same results. If so, I am in. Oh, wait, is that what is in Shock Top Belgian White Ale :-)

  87. Larry Ledwick says:

    Okay minor puzzle solved, the blend above was originally intended for mixing in a 2 quart fruit juice bottle so about 2x the intended mix. Change those values to 1/4 cup for tang and sugar and you will be about where intended if mixed in a 1 liter bottle. (label had faded on the cupboard note I had taped inside the kitchen cabinet years ago)

    correction above 2 quart solution of Tang is 16 level tablespoons.

    Thanks Gail! you are correct the WHO suggests use of rice water to augment food intake when they are trying to bring someone back to a normal diet, it is interchangeable with sugar mixtures.

  88. H.R. says:

    Gail Combs: “My go to for a nasty tummy is Ginger (I keep crystalized on hand as well as fresh ginger root.) ginger ale.”

    Same here on ginger and ginger ale! The sliced pickled ginger is good. You can keep a jar of that around if you’re not prone to picking up fresh ginger at the store, although fresh keeps for a good while, too.

  89. Gail Combs says:

    The rice is probably better for you than all that sugar. For me it doesn’t give me the insulin spike I get with other carbs. Cinnamon BTW helps with the insulin spike if I cheat.

  90. ossqss says:

    @HR, I still have, as hostage, your abandoned steel target formerly named “Chucky” I believe. You were sent an extortion email yesterday to settle the claim. I did not get a response, so I assume you are having this reviewed by legal advisers, or your just slacking on email :-)

    Friday drive by is possibly in play.

    Back to the subject at hand, the ratio on closed cases continues to drop. Now at an 11% rate on the bad side of things, FWIW.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  91. ossqss says:

    BTW, saw this in the notes on that linked page after I made sure the link I posted worked. Interesting none the less.

    New graphs showing very interesting trends in current active cases, outcome (death vs recovery rates), new cases in China outside of Hubei, and more, are going to be published in the coming hours. Follow us on twitter to receive a notification as soon as they are published.

  92. H.R. says:

    @OssQss – Glad you piped up. I’ve been fishing – a lot – and am headed out on a party fishing boat tomorrow. Friday has not been discussed yet around these here parts.

    I’ll check my email. You only think you are watching Chucky. Did you check him over closely to see if he is wired for watching you? ;o) :o)

  93. ossqss says:

    @HR, I can only think that Chucky would be in the past tense form of this shirt considering a Red Ryder was used by you in the scenario. :-)

  94. M Simon says:

    China deploys 40 incinerators to Wuhan amid coronavirus outbreak.
    https://www.oann.com/china-deploys-40-incinerators-to-wuhan-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/

    China has deployed at least 40 industrial incinerators to the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan. Conflicting reports said the machines, which can reportedly handle about five tons of material per day, are either being used to dispose of animal carcasses or medical waste.

    ==

    That is about 50 bodies a day. Or 2,000 bodies a day total.

    Yeah. Medical waste. That’s the ticket. Cough.

  95. E.M.Smith says:

    Watching a video claiming exponential growth of cases outside China. USA at something like 29 suddenly. Japan doing horribly bad quaranteen fail processes, etc.

    15 cases in South Korea from a superspreader…

    Etc.

    China claiming a mix of Chloroquin phosphate (500 mg 2x day) and Abidol (200 mg 3x day) for adults is effective.

    Abidol not in the USA:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umifenovir

    Umifenovir (trade names Arbidol Russian: Арбидол, Chinese: 阿比朵尔) is an antiviral treatment for influenza infection used in Russia and China. The drug is manufactured by Pharmstandard (Russian: Фармстандарт). Although some Russian studies have shown it to be effective, it is not approved for use in Western countries. It is not approved by FDA for the treatment or prevention of influenza. Chemically, umifenovir features an indole core, functionalized at all but one positions with different substituents. The drug is claimed to inhibit viral entry into target cells and stimulate the immune response.

    Umifenovir is manufactured and made available as tablets, capsules and syrup.

    Later in the video covers how 2nd infection can be worse with citations.

    Antivaxers may be right in some cases…

  96. ossqss says:

    Think about it.

    Do we historically quarantine those with the yearly flu?

    Nope.

    Just sayin,,,,,,,,,

  97. E.M.Smith says:

    Looks like the jump in USA cases is transports from the cruise ship:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/new-coronavirus-case-brought-to-bay-area-hospital/ar-BB108v2G#image=BB10aDl7|2

    Both patients were among the dozens of Americans on the Princess Diamond cruise ship under quarantine while docked near Japan, and then transported on Monday to Travis Air Force Base in Fairfield.

    Among the cruise ship passengers flown to Travis AFB, nine were found to need testing or hospitalization.

    Seven of the nine patients were taken to Solano County hospitals, and two were transferred to Queen of the Valley.

    So not yet transmitting in the wild (that we know of…) in the USA, but doing it in Japan, South Korea, and other asian countries along with some in the middle east.

  98. Larry Ledwick says:

    ossqss says:
    20 February 2020 at 5:04 am
    Think about it.

    Do we historically quarantine those with the yearly flu?

    Yes we do but it is a case by case appropriate basis. Old folks home block all children visits for a while as do hospitals who restrict access to children. Japan is so busy trying to save face and to prevent spread to their larger population pool they have totally screwed up passenger care and segregation on the Diamond Princess.

    They should have marched everyone off the ship and done a systematic screening, cleaning and assessment on the pier. Meanwhile had a crew cleaning that ship from one end to the other. Far better to hold passengers in temporary quarantine while you try to get your head around the extent of spread, but Japanese authorities wanted to minimize bad press and tried to put a happy face on it.

  99. Larry Ledwick says:

    A well credentialed Japanese doctor of infectious medicine got kicked off the Diamond Princes when he tried to find out what was going on.

    https://unseenjapan.com/disease-specialist-kicked-off-of-diamond-princess/

  100. Larry Ledwick says:

    Looks like “recovered patients continue to have a body burden of COVID-19 scientists still trying to sort out if that is viable virus or deactivated virus.

    https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2020/02/13/ontario-couple-have-recovered-but-are-still-testing-positive-for-coronavirus.html

    But it adds yet another variable to post recovery testing and return to normal work and activities>

  101. M Simon says:

    Supply chain disruptions are just beginning. We have just jumped off a 40 story building. We are at floor 39 – so far no problems.

    I wouldn’t be surprised at 2 years of disruptions And those disruptions will be significant by the end of March.

    Coronavirus: China’s manufacturing supply chain pummelled from all sides in efforts to restart
    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3051534/coronavirus-chinas-manufacturing-supply-chain-pummelled-all

  102. Larry Ledwick says:

    Some observations by a citizen scientist regarding how temperature may influence spread for COVID-19

    View at Medium.com

  103. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    I think your Indonesia comment has the wrong link…

  104. E.M.Smith says:

    @M. Simon:

    Oil price is down, ships sracking up near Singapore as Chinese ports closed…. and getting worse.

    Governments tossing cash at stock markets can only hold them up so long…

    BTW, Heard one claim that 80% of global medical raw materials come from China so global drugs, surgeries, etc. likely to be curtailed shortly. It may be great that Gilead has a working antiviral drug made at facilities out of China: BUT that’s rather worthless if the raw material needs a working Chinese port…

  105. Foyle says:

    Iran is toast. 20 dead in Qom (1.2mill pop), city being quarantined, likely 100’s-1000’s of infected roaming Qom and Iran. They don’t have ability to test for it, so no hope of tracking or halting it.
    http://itwitter.co/hectorology/status/1230385232907390982
    Given porous borders this probably also means Middle east is done for – millions will die in coming months.
    The end of the beginning and the beginning of the end. likely 100 million dead in coming year.

  106. Larry Ledwick says:

    @BioGraphica1
    7 minutes ago
    More 👾 Retweeted BNO Newsroom
    #Covid19 #coronavirus pattern emerging: hospitals, ships, churches, apartments – enclosed spaces with extensive familiar person to person contact seem to be the best incubators.

  107. M Simon says:

    The situation in the USA is not quite being fully reported.

    Wuhan Virus Watch: Over 700 in Washington State Under Supervision for Possible Coronavirus Symptoms
    https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/02/wuhan-virus-watch-over-700-in-washington-state-under-supervision-for-possible-coronavirus-symptoms/

  108. Bill In Oz says:

    @Gail, Thanks for the tip about coffee causing potassium loss.
    I love my black tea with milk & plunger coffee and drink quite a bit each day.
    And yes have high blood pressure !
    No one has ever pointed out that caffine causes the loss of potassium via urination !
    Thanks again !
    Decaf tea & coffee for me now.

  109. Gail Combs says:

    Bill, glad to help past that along. One of the ladies at the website I frequent mentioned it.

    While I am at it I will post some of the rest of her info and a repeat of some of the info from here. It is stuff I put up at the other site.

    Garlic for blood pressure & heart, allergies
    https://dailyhealthpost.com/roasted-garlic-cloves/

    NUTRITION TO OPTIMIZE IMMUNE SYSTEM
    High dose Vit C for anti viral activity.

    Nutritional Treatment of Coronavirus

    Orthomolecular Medicine News Service, Jan 30, 2020 recomends, VERY HIGH levels of Vitamin C.

    Please read the whole article. At the bottom are references and recommended reading.

    In summary:

    What dosage?
    Vitamin C fights all types of viruses. Although the dose should truly be high, even a low supplemental amount of vitamin C saves lives. This is very important for those with low incomes and few treatment options. For example, in one well-controlled, randomized study, just 200 mg/day vitamin C given to the elderly resulted in improvement in respiratory symptoms in the most severely ill, hospitalized patients. And there were 80% fewer deaths in the vitamin C group. [7]
    …The sicker a person was, the more ascorbic acid they would tolerate orally without it causing diarrhea. In a person with an otherwise normal GI tract when they were well, would tolerate 5 to 15 grams of ascorbic acid orally in divided doses without diarrhea…..

    Vitamin C fights all types of viruses. Although the dose should truly be high, even a low supplemental amount of vitamin C saves lives. This is very important for those with low incomes and few treatment options. For example, in one well-controlled, randomized study, just 200 mg/day vitamin C given to the elderly resulted in improvement in respiratory symptoms in the most severely ill, hospitalized patients. And there were 80% fewer deaths in the vitamin C group. [7]
    …The sicker a person was, the more ascorbic acid they would tolerate orally without it causing diarrhea. In a person with an otherwise normal GI tract when they were well, would tolerate 5 to 15 grams of ascorbic acid orally in divided doses without diarrhea…..

    Selenium:100 mcg (micrograms) daily…..

    B-complex vitamins and vitamin A: A multivitamin tablet with each meal will supply these conveniently and economically…..
    Nutritional supplements are not just a good idea. For fighting viruses, they are absolutely essential

    What Does Taking Massive Amounts of Vitamin C Do to Your Body?
    *https://healthyeating.sfgate.com/taking-massive-amounts-vitamin-c-body-6719.html

    *https://www.livestrong.com/article/413359-what-are-the-benefits-of-mega-dosing-vitamin-c/

    Debunking of side effects:
    *https://www.approachwellness.com/vitamin-c-side-effects.html

    From a fellow commenter (sorry I did not keep the Id) I have added the studies verifying the claims.

    A VERY over-simplified version of how viruses work, immune boosting, and what you can do NOW. This is esp helpful for at risk age groups, but good for everyone.

    Those spikes you see on virus pics allow it to puncture your cell wall and use the inside of your cell for food. Immune boosters help strengthen your cell wall, among other things.

    ELDERBERRY SYRUP – (Sambucus n.) Strengthens your cell walls, and is shown to bind to flu viruses, preventing them from invading cells and replicating.
    *https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3056848/

    ASTRAGALUS – Helps increase the bodies production of interferon, and, reduces water retention.
    *https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17361521

    ECHINACEA p. – Provides inulin, which improves white cells ability to fight in part by increasing properdin, increases and activates white cells, signals the body to release interferon.
    *https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4058675/

    VITAMIN C – Helps the red blood cells transport oxygen thru the body.
    Your lymphatic system runs along (mostly) the same paths that your blood vessels use. However, your lymph system doesn’t have a “pump” the way your blood vessels have your heart to move things along. Your lymphatic system helps with your blood system to drain out the debris from your dead cell walls, dead virus cell, and white cells, etc. Keeping your lymphatic system clear of debris is why you are told to drink lots of fluids when you get sick. That junk needs to be urinated out, to keep the lanes clear for more white cells to attack the virus. There are also simple excercises that “pump” your lymphatics. These are all online. If you catch a virus, there are more things to add that may help.

    So, if you get sick:
    INCREASE YOUR IMMUNE BOOSTERS!!! like, every couple hours or so.
    Drink LOT of fluids

    Add STEROIDS to help reduce inflammation if necessary. This can be prescribed or
    LICORICE HERB (not the candy, sorry!) can be used.
    *https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27650551
    *https://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/can-licorice-save-world-next-pandemic-infection

    NETTLES – Anti-histamine, anti-inflammatory, and diuretic. Is helpful with drying up runny noses, too!

    …Phenolic compounds could be defined as biologically active and herbal and have positive effects on health. The scientific researches are increased about the positive effect of phenolic compounds into coronary heart disease and high blood pressure, diabetes, cancer, inflammative, viral and parasitic disease, psychotic disorders
    *https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3349212/

    DANDELION – A strong diuretic, has Vitamin C and potassium. (Most diuretics take out potassium along with the urine.)
    *https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3265450/

    For fever, Tylenol or Motrin. Some people don’t do fever control, as the higher temperatures help kill the virus, but I have seen seizures happen from this, so I think fever control is a good thing. Also, if your body is fight aches and fever, those are cells which can be helping fight the virus instead.
    Again, very over-simplified, but some steps you can be taking NOW, and some herbs you can look into to see what may work for you and yours.

  110. Gail Combs says:

    OH, and don’t forget hemp…. :>)

    Cannabinoids as novel anti-inflammatory drugs
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2828614/

    Hemp oil + Turmeric-Curcumin has gotten me off the OTC pain killers for my bad back.

  111. E.M.Smith says:

    @Gail:

    FWIW, on fever control and seizures vs better immunity function: I leave a fever uncontrolled so my immune system functions better and viruses and bacteria die quicker; right up to about 105 F when I’ll start antipyretics to prevent it going higher. Dose adjusted to knock it down some, but not entirely, if possible.

    Also,, in early stages of “flu like symptoms”, I drink lots of hot fluids (especially milky black tea) and bundle up in bed sometimes with the heat up. I call this an artificial fever. Forcing body temp high, early, seems to really help reduce duration and severity. You know you will go there anyway, so help it a long. The early immune boost and virus inhibition of a high temp with only modest virus load present seems to help attenuate the whole experience.

    Also it helps avoid the “chills” feeling when the hypothalamus has adjusted the set point higher but body temperature is still normal.

  112. Gail Combs says:

    Bill In Oz I should have also mentioned the decaffeinated tea and coffee still has some caffeine so I substituted
    Herb-Ox SODIUM FREE Granulated Bouillon
    For at least one of my cups of tea during the day. (I often toss some in my rice with a lot of herbs to give the rice a nice flavor.)

    Amazon carries it: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=herb-ox&hvadid=77927941593801&hvbmt=bb&hvdev=c&hvqmt=p&tag=mh0b-20&ref=pd_sl_3t2v95xun7_b

  113. Gail Combs says:

    E.M.
    I agree with you on the fever control. It is one of the bodies weapons against infection. If I feel like I am coming down with something it is:
    1. a hot toddy (whiskey, honey & lemon)
    2. hop in the tub to artificially raise my temperature to over 100F
    3. then straight into a warm bed for a good night’s sleep courtesy of the whiskey.

    >>>>>>>>>>
    I would certainly watch the temperature to make sure it does not go dangerously high, but other wise I would not interfere.

    In an adult, any temperature over 103 degrees Fahrenheit is considered dangerous, according to the Mayo Clinic. For babies under three months, a temperature over 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit requires a call to a doctor, while for older children and infants, any fever over 102 degrees Fahrenheit or one that lasts longer than one day necessitates an examination by a doctor.
    https://www.reference.com/world-view/dangerous-body-temperature-eb27be02ecc0aac2

  114. E.M.Smith says:

    Or you can just get the half salt half KCl potassium salt, keep the coffee but add the potassium mix to your food ;-)

    FWIW, I’ve just recently taken to putting a small sprinkle of salt in my coffee. It seems to eliminate some of the bitter at the expense of a bit different taste. Maybe I’ll try the potassium mix salt…

  115. E.M.Smith says:

    @Gail:

    Don’t know if “it is just me” or that Mayo reference is paranoid, but:

    In the NASA study we were instrumented for 24 hrs x 105 days of body temp. I normally cycle from about 97.6 to 99.5 F daily. For me, 99.x isn’t a fever. Activity can put me at 102+ F temporarily. Any virus, I’m over 102 and often at 104 F pronto. I don’t usually get the disorienting or other mental effects until over 104 F. As a kid, I was 105 F with the flu (and remember the experience and folks talking about me – I was about 4 at the time and brain still was lucid and recording) and when I was still headed up, got plunged into a cold bath…. I also briefly touched 105 F at about 30 years old (when I then developed an allergy to corn from eating some corn chowder… “starve a fever” or at least eat foods you hate and won’t miss ;-)

    So basically saying: For me, 103 F to 104 F is absolutely ordinary as a fever with no bad effects even from modest viruses. Then again, it may be why I rarely get sick, and when I do, get over it very fast. Neanderthal immunity perhaps? I don’t bother with doctors or drugs at 104 F and under and never have. It is other symptoms that trigger the doctor call.

    FWIW after one particularly intense workout, I hit 105 F and was light headed for a few minutes. A slug of cold water brought it down quickly. I’d heard runners got higher temps when running and wanted to test it….

  116. Gail Combs says:

    http://www.usnews.com/
    IRAN has just announced that there are THREE MORE CASES of the Wuhan Coronavirus. The Muslim holy city of Qom is shut down.
    Iran recently evacuated 60 “students” from WUHAN back to Iran.
    >>>>>

    Think of the flowing robes, the head gear and the Muslim method for wiping after defecating…

    https://www.jihadwatch.org/2016/05/uk-muslim-chef-with-bottle-covered-in-fecal-matter-in-kitchen-didnt-use-toilet-paper-for-cultural-reasons
    “‘Most shocking, Mrs Clinton found in the kitchen under the double sink an empty plastic milk bottle that was extremely dirty and covered in brown fingerprints,’ he said. ‘He filled it with water from the kitchen sink and used it to wash his bottom after toileting. He didn’t use toilet paper for cultural reasons. Mrs Clinton concluded the brown finger prints were faecal matter. He said he needed to remove the faecal matter from his body after using the toilet. So a bottle used for his cleaning his bottom found inside the kitchen where food is prepared.’”

    How do Muslims clean their bums after poop?
    “Not until recently when I went to Tunisia for a trip, I realise that Muslim people don’t use toilet paper to clean their bums after poop. Instead, they clean with water using their left hand, usually a bidet or jug. That is why in Muslim toilets each toilet cubicle has a jug of water on top of the cistern.

    This habit exists in Arabic countries, India, and north Africa. In many Asian Countries, people use a system where they do not sit, they squat and after the business they wash normally using a spicket to spray it out. Therefore, a special tip for travelling to these countries is: always keep some toilet paper in your bag, and pack some toilet rolls in your luggage.”
    ….

    Whether the Muslim method would increase exposure or not I do not know. probably depends on the hand washing… but what about the faucet handles…

  117. Gail Combs says:

    EM I agree,
    If it gets up to ~103 watch for other problems. Since I HATE doctors, you have to drag me kicking and screaming. Hubby on the other hang runs in at the sign of a hangnail.
    ….

    On the potassium & blood pressure. I had switched to NoSalt and still had problems if I even thought about NaCl. Getting rid of the caffeine brought the SYSTOLIC down a bit lower.

    Getting rid of the Carbs really lowered the DIASTOLIC from over 90 to 70 – 75 but it happened slowly over months and years. (Cleaning out the veins and arteries?)

    My allergies seem to be the biggest problem. If they are under control so is the blood pressure. Systemic inflammation? Lack of O2?

    I am not at ALL interested in masking the problem with blood pressure drugs. I rather correct my diet.

    Oh, and to get rid of the bitter in tea? I use 1/16 of a teaspoon of baking soda per liter. It supposedly binds the tannins in the tea. I drink a LOT of tea — 1 and a 1/2 quarts a day esp in the summer and my dentist is very surprised that my teeth have no stains. So maybe there is something to that.

  118. E.M.Smith says:

    It will be interesting to see how the Friday Call To Prayer changes with the epidemic… whole community close packed and all.

    While possible to effectively remove poop with a wet hand, rinsing the hand with water is not enough. You need effective disinfectant. HOT water and soap, minimum, over 20 seconds with good technique. Then that jug surface WILL collect particles from the air. Even if only ever touched with the right hand, you will get particle transfer.

    Good luck with all that…

    FWIW, we now “go before you go anywhere”, and do short trips so the public room isn’t needed.

  119. Gail Combs says:

    “FWIW, we now “go before you go anywhere”, and do short trips so the public room isn’t needed.”

    I am taking that advice to heart. I am no longer interested in using the public ‘Virus Exchange Room’

  120. E.M.Smith says:

    For this last coast to coast run, I figured it was likely my last major long trip until this thing is over. (Unless someone waves a lot of money at me ;-)

    We’re in the Prepared For Lock Down Watchful Waiting stage. Just waiting for the case density to make it too risky to keep doing a weekly (fast) restocking run or essential services visit. Implementing basic protective measures when out (skipping ‘the little room’, and using hand wipes, avoiding crowds, fast short trips if any…)

  121. Foyle says:

    Vignettes from China. It is crazy there.

  122. M Simon says:

    Avoidant paruresis is my friend.

  123. Larry Ledwick says:

    I am at work today, moving slow but functioning. I have long used a pattern of augmented body temperature control to help beat colds etc. Bundle up in a heavy jacket and jump in the car with heat cranked up to maximum. I call it my “car sauna” just an hour or so at high environmental temperatures seems to really help kick start the body’s differences. Years ago I ran across a description of why colds take place in cold weather. It is a combination of preferred temperatures of operation of the nose and upper throat and what temperatures the virus replicates best at.

    Cold weather shifts the balance in favor of the virus by making the nose drippy (sneezy etc.) which maximizes spread and the cooler mucosa temperatures are beneficial to the virus giving it a slightly upper hand in the measures – counter measures battle. So by intentionally pushing the respiratory system into the high temperature domain, it is at its most efficient in and you take away the small advantage of the colder temperatures for the virus and increase blood flow and speed of biochemical reactions in the air passages with the higher temperatures.

    Works for me. When you consider how many temperate cultures use some sort of steam bath, sauna, or sweat lodge technology in their cultural practices and natural medicine the concept is well supported.

  124. Gail Combs says:

    While I wait for my tea to brew in the morning, I spend the time inhaling the steam from the kettle. I also make sure I have a shallow pan of water (changed daily) in my bedroom to keep the humidity up. If you are having dry skin problems in the winter, you have the humidity in the house too low.

  125. Larry Ledwick says:

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0166354220300528

    The spike glycoprotein of the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV contains a furin-like cleavage site absent in CoV of the same clade

    Highlights
    The genomic sequence of 2019-nCoV indicates that the virus clusters with betacoronaviruses of lineage b.

    2019-nCoV S-protein sequence has a specific furin-like cleavage site absent in lineage b CoV including SARS-CoV sequences.

    The furin-like cleavage site in the S-protein of 2019-nCoV may have implications for the viral life cycle and pathogenicity.

    Campaigns to develop anti-2019-nCoV therapeutics should include the evaluation of furin inhibitors.

    Abstract
    In 2019, a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infecting Humans has emerged in Wuhan, China. Its genome has been sequenced and the genomic information promptly released. Despite a high similarity with the genome sequence of SARS-CoV and SARS-like CoVs, we identified a peculiar furin-like cleavage site in the Spike protein of the 2019-nCoV, lacking in the other SARS-like CoVs. In this article, we discuss the possible functional consequences of this cleavage site in the viral cycle, pathogenicity and its potential implication in the development of antivirals.

    (requires paid access paywall)

  126. Larry Ledwick says:

    The economic impacts will depend on normal shipping pipeline volumes and inventories, people may not be appreciating how a complex system like the supply chain will struggle to keep deliveries on or near on time for a while but eventually the backlogs will begin to accumulate. This is going to have economic waves that ripple back and forth through the world’s economies as a million buyers try to keep their businesses supplied with critical materials. Some will have already placed substitution orders most critical items.

    The real smart ones had meeting weeks ago do decide what their plan would be to act in keep alive mode.

  127. cdquarles says:

    I’m back :). I developed peripheral vascular disease, likely related to circulating immune factors (I’ve suffered these off and on since childhood) which was worsened, I think, by throwing a blood clot roughly 18 months ago. I passed a kidney stone a few hours after having an angioplasty.

    Nice to see Sis (Gail) back.

  128. E.M.Smith says:

    @CDQuarles:

    OhMan! Half that would wipe me out… Get some rest and recovery in… best of luck!

  129. E.M.Smith says:

    Following the twitter link from Foyle, to Ph.D. Harry Chen, it’s like something from Mad Max. It looks like roving bands of official “enforcers” many corrupt, doing abusive things while people are reaching the point of desperation so can’t just sit at home and starve.

    One snip has folks setting up bucket hoists from the balconies of a high rise supposedly as the sewers are clogged up / shut off.

    Another series has apartments on fire while another shows a quasi-official looking guy setting an apartment on fire.

    Then there’s folks in bunny suits doing things like wiping their face with a gloved hand, and most folks with a mask have zero eye protection.

    Finally, the housing is largely large apartment blocks. Want to bet any air handling system is shared and with “energy saving” recycle?

    There’s inside footage from the miracle one week hospital build showing water leaking in all over the place…

    No wonder China is a mess.

    Here’s the URL, but it has a lot of crap characters in it, so who knows if it will paste and work:
    https://twitter.com/IsChinar?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3AIsChinar&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fchiefio.wordpress.com%2F2020%2F02%2F16%2F16-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-corona-virus-outbreak%2F

    I suspect everything after the first ? can be deleted as it ought to be just Track Me junk.

    I don’t know if it is “just China” or “just Communism” or if that’s what all cities will end up acting like as things go crazy pear shaped, no food, water, or sewer.

    OTOH, I doubt we’b be so dumb as to lock down 11 million people AND block food shipments at the same time. Just obviously a bad idea.

  130. Larry Ledwick says:

    cdquarles says:
    21 February 2020 at 1:37 am

    Sorry to hear that news, my recent health adventures reinforces how quickly things can shift. Hope you can get it all sorted out and can work out a good plan to handle these changes.

  131. M Simon says:

    Report: Coronavirus-Infected Americans Were Flown Home Despite CDC Objections
    https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/02/20/report-coronavirus-infected-americans-were-flown-home-despite-cdc-objections/

    Upon confirmation of the cases, the State Department and Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) officials opted to greenlight the fight despite CDC objecting to the move amid concerns of the disease spreading on the aircraft, the Washington Post reported.

  132. David A Anderson says:

    Thus site has many informative articles, not good news unfortunately.
    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/south-korea-coronavirus-crisis-escalating!-total-confirmed-infected-now-204,-dead-1,-thousands-of–suspected-cases-now

    @cdquarles, best wishes with you health.

  133. David A says:

    Prisons are breeding grounds for the virus…
    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news!-coronavirus-cases-emerging-all-over-prisons-in-china,-460-confirmed-cases-in-just-three-provinces-with-tens-of-thousands-suspected-of-c

    It occurs to me that with China’s population density, large buildings and tight living conditions, confirmation of airborne contagion, poor plumbing and general poor hygiene habits, China is, in a way, full of cruise ships on the ground, and forced group quarantine is deadly.

  134. E.M.Smith says:

    Does anyone really believe the China numbers? The W.H.O. is just making themselves look like the political hacks they are.

    Then we have South Korea and Japan both cleanly on exponential growth paths AND doing stupid stuff. The Cambodian ship stunt where they hugged folks getting off the boat… and both Thailand and Singapore looking no better… Is it something about Asians? Or are they just ahead of us on the curve? As we have had stupidities like flying thousands in before shutting down the vector, and only starting to test recently and sending folks to home quaranteen with family & friends….

    Choosing political appearances over justified caution is killing people.

    Then Iran says 5 cases with 2 dead. BUT, we know 80% are mild and of the 20% only 15% ought to die. Work back from the deaths… ought to be 13 serious and 66 infected, so highly likely they have spreaders in Friday Prayers today…Why does this matter?

    British Columbia just announced #6, who returned from a January trip to Iran, THEN got symptoms. So how many did they infect in the airports, busses, taxies? In S.Korea one lady spread it to 45 by attending church…

    IMHO it is now doing blind spreading (I.e. contact trace not working) in at least several Asian and Middle Eastern countries, with Africa completely opaque and with no hope of stopping it now.

    IMHO, this will blow up big time in the next few weeks and then flights from all those places spread cases all over Europe and North America. I’m figuring our (my family) lockdown as likely next week or at most the one after (unless something really surprising happens in the detection and cure department or ACE2 in whites is really different)

  135. llanfar says:

    @Foyle, @Gail this may explain why Iran is in such trouble: https://lobelog.com/is-iran-at-risk-of-becoming-a-chinese-colony/

  136. jim2 says:

    CDQuarles – sorry to hear about your health issues. Getting old is a pain.

  137. jim2 says:

    llanfar says: 21 February 2020 at 12:17 pm https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/16/16-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-corona-virus-outbreak/#comment-125321

    The article indicates Iran sees China as “culturally acceptable.” China is hard on Muslims in China – not sure about their definition of “culturally acceptable”!!

  138. jim2 says:

    From the J. Hopkins data, ex-China confirmed cases, presumably hospitalized, with know outcome:
    199 total, 10 deaths, for a 5% death rate.

  139. Steve C says:

    Regarding count figures, I came across this on BeforeIt’sNews. Whether it’s a skilled clickbait article or accurate reportage remains to be seen, but I *really* hope it’s clickbait. “I am a senior Chinese military intelligence officer and I know the truth about the “corona virus” outbreak. It is far worse than the media are telling you.” If he is right, we’re dead, simple as that.
    “Enjoy”.

  140. cdquarles says:

    In my opinion, China is making the same politically oriented basic infectious disease control mistakes the USA made back in the 70s and 80s with certain hepatitis viruses and AIDS. Way more folk will be exposed, get sick and die than what would have happened had the proper procedures been done early. I get folks making mistakes. Calling these things colds or flu help cause that because folk expect the same kinds of results thinking the viruses have similar pathology. Often you can get away with that, yet you are risking horrid results when incorrect.

  141. cdquarles says:

    Thanks for the well wishes. My recent interactions with the medical care system has me extremely concerned about the upcoming election. The Ds basically want to destroy it and have seemingly not considered the effects on medical innovation. Making the system more like the DMV than it already is can’t be good for most of us.

  142. David A says:

    Steve C, now that us an alarmist article! ( To many reasons to debunk it to list.)

    Something very serious has come, and really such stories are, IMV, a disservice.

  143. p.g.sharrow says:

    From my POV contracting this Virus is a sure thing, no escape. sooner or later it will happen. Only solution is to reduce the chances of a bad outcome. Stay healthy, lots of vitamin “C” avoid the medical profession to reduce the chances of contact with other disease that will complicate your health problems.
    Everyone dies from something!
    As to China, I’ve always had great faith that their bureaucracy would destroy their dreams of world wide greatness. For thousands of years this has been the case. Just one more case where a bit of unforeseen stress breaks the camels back. If they had done nothing and just ride it out they would have had a better outcome. Instead they have to do something! even if it is all the wrong things.

  144. E.M.Smith says:

    @Jim2:

    IMHO, what they mean by “culturally acceptable” is that the bribes are big, in cash, and kept private (but with “sexual favors” included as desired).

    One acquaintance shared that his Asian counterparty was very surprised he was un-interested in the offer of a “sweet young thing” (and really just wanted a bigger money bucket..) In big deals, a “staffed” apartment can be on offer… sometimes including air fare for “meetings at the company”.

    @P.G.:

    There are 2 possible paths and it is too early to know how this one runs. Like SARS-1 and MERS it could run out of new hosts and just end. The reservoir species are bats and camels, respectively, and it can’t hang around well in people without new cases. Or it can become like AIDS or the common cold. One has human reservoir cases, the other mutates fast enough to be “new” each year and keep circling the globe.

    IFF Covid-19 is like SARS or MERS, you just need to be isolated long enough for local herd immunity (I.e. your neighbors get whacked) to lead to extirpation (so no local spreaders).

    OTOH, IF it develops a human reservoir, yeah, no escape. BUT, IFF you can delay your case long enough to avoid the crisis medical overload stage, you ought to have better treatment options around and not be stuck in a hallway to die.

    In either case, “social distancing” (I.e. hermit lock down) can be a big win. That’s my strategy in the suburbs (and given where you live, just stocking up a few month provisions is roughly a guaranteed win). Then that whole “Be healthy, get some sun vit-D eat your vit-C , learn to love 7 garlic chicken”, etc. Immune bosting ought to be beneficial in any case.

  145. Larry Ledwick says:

    IMHO, what they mean by “culturally acceptable” is that the bribes are big, in cash, and kept private (but with “sexual favors” included as desired). – and –
    They are just as amoral as we are and will likely agree to what ever we request
    and the beneficiary of these arraignments are not “The great Satan”

    This is where the Chinese begin to pay for all the damage they have inflicted with their peddling of death in the drug markets and Fentanyl and Opiate flood they created to destroy the west.

    As several have mentioned the primary means of transmission has moved from specific chains of contacts which can be traced to random crowd interactions too numerous to follow even if you had the desire to do so.

  146. Gail Combs says:

    Hi cdquarles,

    Hate to hear you have had a bad time of it health wise.Get well quickly!

  147. E.M.Smith says:

    Old Rome / Italy knew. “Quaranteen” comes from the 40 days ships had to sit at anchor to assure no infections brewing. A week to develop, a week to be sick, then rwo weeks for post sickness virus shedding to end. Or 24 days for virus to develop after contagion from a 2 week symptomless spreader, (yeah, I know, 24 +14 = 36 so allow a few days for them to meet on board).

    https://www.etymonline.com/word/quarantine

    quarantine (n.)
    1660s, “period a ship suspected of carrying disease is kept in isolation,” from Italian quarantina giorni, literally “space of forty days,” from quaranta “forty,” from Latin quadraginta”forty,” which is related to quattuor “four” (from PIE root *kwetwer- “four”). So called from the Venetian policy (first enforced in 1377) of keeping ships from plague-stricken countries waiting off its port for 40 days to assure that no latent cases were aboard. Also see lazaretto. The extended sense of “any period of forced isolation” is from 1670s.

    Earlier in English the word meant “period of 40 days in which a widow has the right to remain in her dead husband’s house” (1520s), and, as quarentyne (15c.), “desert in which Christ fasted for 40 days,” from Latin quadraginta “forty.”

    You would think medicos today would know that 14 is not the magic number, it is 40…

    Then that whole “assume it is hard to spread until it has escaped, then try to catch up” is just so stupid on the face of it. Like leaving the gate open until the herd of cows is running down the road, THEN say maybe we ought to close it.

    So now the world is in the soup, what with China most likely a rolling catastrophe (any bets the dropping cases and dead are due to dying in locked up apartments? ), Japan being stupid with the ship, Cambodia not caring at all about contagion, The Koreas exponential, Thailand embracing anything goes, Muslim herd practices, and lots of air travel with borderless globalism.

    Yes, I’m peeved. This ought not have been a problem in California, for years, decades, or ever.

  148. E.M.Smith says:

    @Steve C:

    Has the usual pattern of the phony “buy my shit” stories along with a load of ads. Long on sob story, short on facts. Some of it easily disproven (Covid-19 sufferers not “melting” nor mental reductions, virus extracted and sequenced several times by several teams in various countries, etc.)

    IMHO complete junk.

  149. Ossqss says:

    Just read at the worldometer site of someone who has the virus with no symptoms since returned from China on the 2nd of this month. 19 days and still no symptoms. US jumped up 20 since yesterday from their numbers, if those are from today?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  150. Larry Ledwick says:

    Summary of current knowledge about spread of COVID-19.

    Note that many of these paths have been long well know, but modern medicine tends toward the habit of using big hammer solutions because most of the time they have the resource surpluses to allow them to just beat an infection into submission rather get it under control with good practices.

    Why waste time with simple reliable things like quarantines and cross contamination control when you can just drench everything with strong disinfectants, and deal with the few infections with over whelming medical technology rather than prevent them.

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/how-covid-19-is-spread-67143#.XlBAGxnohK0.twitter

  151. Larry Ledwick says:

    Nothing that is even remotely surprising to anyone who has ever watched a mold culture move across a petri dish or who has ever played with exponential math for a few hours, but probably a useful graphic for the technologically illiterate crowd.

    My generation learned this math over decades as we tried to get polio under control. I have cousins that came down with small pox, and of course group inoculation via natural exposure parties in the 1950’s-1960’s

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/coronavirus-how-epidemics-spread-and-end/

  152. E.M.Smith says:

    @Larry L:

    Maybe that’s why I have my attitude… sisters best friend finally got out of leg braces from polio in high school. We had “March Of Dimes” collection cards in our restsurant… Small Pox was still a thing. Taught to identify anthrax in high school. I’ve had measles, German measles, chicken pox, mumps (well really one mump…), and a variety of others. Tossed them off fairly well. But I remember the communuty attitudes of the time. The parents wondering which children will live. If the grandparents will die in the latest flu.

    I suppose a case can be made that our success has made us sloppy and lazy.

    @Ossqss:

    Something screwy is going on with (at least) USA number.
    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
    Is back down to 16 for USA.

  153. jim2 says:

    EM – I’ve been keeping a close eye on the US infections indicated by J.H. dashboard – it had been 15 for several days and only recently went up to 16. I’m not sure why J.H. number’s are so low, I would expect more in the US.

  154. Power Grab says:

    @ EM re:
    “OTOH, I doubt we’b be so dumb as to lock down 11 million people AND block food shipments at the same time. Just obviously a bad idea.”

    Or, since we’re talking about Communists (known for their propensity to kill off their own), maybe it’s a Feature, not a Bug, for them. I know I’m not the only one to have thought of that.

  155. cdquarles says:

    @Larry,
    Yeah. Stuff running through whole neighborhoods then mass inoculations when those became a thing. Fortunately for me, there was little paralytic polio going around prior to mass inoculations, but I do remember the March of Dimes things annually and we did have pretty much all of the other annually recurring epidemics such that I got all of them except polio, smallpox, diptheria, tetanus (I did see a live case once and I shudder at whether the current generation would have a clue), and pertussis. For those, we were lined up and given shots, whether we wanted them or not, by heath department mandate.

  156. Larry Ledwick says:

    The John’s Hopkins numbers are totally indefensible crap, they have become a political football They keep changing the rules for what is an official case. Some of it is political, some of it is probably public relations to limit panic, The real case numbers are probably several times larger than the official numbers. Part of this is that they are being really stingy on the official test kits. Mild cases are likely getting written off as flu and asymptomatic cases basically don’t exist.

    They are starting to get “spontaneous outbreaks” now that are just cropping out out of the blue in some countries with no known travel connection to China etc.

    Yes farm kids that watched their parents dig pits and shoot all their live stock due to something like hoof and mouth disease or mad cow disease will have a far different understanding of epidemic control than sheltered little kids in the suburbs who’s idea of a big disease outbreak is 5 kids in class are all out sick with the flu at the same time.

    One of my neighborhood boys a few houses down was afflicted with polio and walked with braces.

    I remember well standing in line with everyone I knew n our school (2x) to take the Sabin and Salk polio vaccines I also got one of the first available polio injection vaccinations for Polio at a doctors office in North Denver, first and only time I ever went in that building but that is who had stocks.

    I also remember the pictures of kids in Iron Lungs.

  157. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    21 February 2020 at 6:38 pm

    China is not peddling death with its distribution of illegal drugs. It is taking advantage of human stupidity. Human government stupidity. Government socialist stupidity.

    Drug Prohibition is socialism for criminals. Says Milton Friedman. Besides we learned that from Alcohol Prohibition.

    Hillary Clinton explained it. “There is too much money in it.”

    And then of course ==>

    It is criminal to persecute abused children and the people helping them. Nearly every western country does it. Christian love? Unavailable for those kids who have problems with drugs.. For them we have jails and police.

    Dr. Lonny Shavelson found that 70% of female heroin addicts were sexually abused in childhood.

    Post USA Civil War alcoholism was called “the soldiers disease”

    Addiction is a symptom of PTSD. Says Nobel Prize Winner in Medicine Eric Kandel in his book, “The Disordered Mind.”

    People in chronic pain chronically take pain relievers.

    I oppose making war on the afflicted.

    But some police officers get it.

    14 Year Veteran Undercover Cop Exposes Truth About The Drug War: “I Used To Believe I Was Doing Good”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-16/14-year-veteran-undercover-cop-exposes-truth-about-drug-war-i-used-believe-i-was-doi

    “When I went into policing I thought addicts had made the mistake of trying drugs and had no willpower to stop. Actually, problematic drug users – or at least all the ones I knew – were self medicating. Most of the heroin users I knew were self-medicating for childhood trauma, whether physical or sexual.

    ========

    The old attitudes are difficult to break because people were never reasoned into them. Who taught you “drugs cause addiction” ? No one taught it. It is just implied everywhere. Causes “uncontrolable desires” , “once you start you can’t stop.” etc. Except even in the old days only 1 of 10 who try such drugs in the illegal market get “addicted”. The numbers never did match the rhetoric.

  158. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    21 February 2020 at 11:09 pm

    I remember being scared every polio season. I used to deliver groceries to a woman in an iron lung. She had a nurse all the time. There was a time when Jonas Salk was a God. For a very good reason.

  159. Larry Ledwick says:

    US cases now are at least 34 (due to accounting questions cases from the evacuation flights are accounted for separately.)

  160. M Simon says:

    E.M.Smith says:
    21 February 2020 at 8:44 pm

    Well. He is correct about one thing. The Black Money people are all in cahoots.

    It is somewhat well known that the CIA traffics drugs for Black money. Why don’t the other intel agencies out them more publicly to gain an advantage? My conclusion is that they are all in on it. Think if it. All the intel agencies of the world that need an interest in silence of a huge criminal operation to keep it running. Every one high up in the DOJ has to know. All the intel agencies.

    So it may be he has a point. In that respect.

    And how long has it been going on? At least since Lucky Luciano. Or maybe China Clippers. The Forbes family made its money in opium.

    Opulence and Opium: The Legacy of Harvard’s Drug Syndicate
    https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2017/3/30/opium-at-harvard/

  161. David A says:

    I am a wandering person with regard to drug laws. I grew up aware of, afraid of a life wasted to drugs. Ya, I partied, drank and smoked for two years, (Fast Times at Ridgemont High was based on my school at that time) saw friends falling into a losing life, and being on the wrong side of the law was cogent to that, and in the summer before my senior year I quit cold Turkey.

    I have watched the glorification of Mary Jane on-going now, and seen several kids, now in there 20s and 30s destroyed, praising pot all the way down, defending it with a passion.

    I suppose we must find a way.

    I see the incarceration issue, and

  162. E.M.Smith says:

    Part of why USA cases are bogus? Seems they sent out broken test kits (only 3 States have working kits) AND you don’t even get tested unless you have traveled to China or had contact with a proven known case. So by definition, community transmisdion can’t be found…

    Also finds US numbers have issues and that Iran, Korea, and Japan are now out of control epidemics.

  163. Larry Ledwick says:

    Modern methods or respiratory therapy and changes in patient mortality.

    https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/this-is-how-covid19-kills-you-and-how-you-can-survive-it/

  164. Gail Combs says:

    Someone at the other site just reported this. I can not find any verification.

    FLASH ALERT:
    FoxNewsRadio news report, 1PM Eastern:
    DR. NANCY MESSONIER, of the CDC, has just stated that, due to the “SUDDEN” INCREASE of Wuhan Coronavirus cases in the United States, that “schools and businesses may have to be closed” if the situation gets more serious.

  165. jim2 says:

    Here it is:

    “She said the “day may come” here where we have to shut down schools and businesses like China has done. ”

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/02/21/coronavirus-who-contain-outbreak-iran-deaths-south-korea-cases/4829278002/

  166. Gail Combs says:

    That was a report a Virginian heard.
    When asked she said:

    And, if there’s apparently no “crisis” according to the CDC, WHY would Dr. Nancy Messonier make that statement reported on the 1PM FoxNewsRadio report THAT I HEARD;

    and WHY would she send a tweet out a few days ago (to a person named “Frank” I think), about MORE THAN 1,000 cases in the United States — which message she then DELETED?

    If they finally started actually testing in select cities earlier this week, then they may be finding that

    “intense flu season in full swing, hundreds of thousands of coughing and feverish patients have already overwhelmed emergency rooms around the United States.”
    February 7, 2020 — *https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/hospitals-coronavirus.html

    was actually the China virus.

  167. jim2 says:

    All of a sudden, the J.H. dashboard has the US at 35 cases. This seems to correlate with other sources.

  168. E.M.Smith says:

    Her quote is also in the video I just posted a couple of comments up.

    BBC report states China has swapped, again, back to the old method of diagnosis with lower case counts (kit only, not just MRI /xray +symptoms and exposure). So China back to reporting how many kits they ship, while the USA is reporting “sick people from China” but not anyone with the clinical disease who’s not been to China.

    The level of politically driven stupid is high in both countries.

  169. Gail Combs says:

    Thanks Jim,
    I will ship the info over to the other site.

    The info you guys dig up is much appreciated on the other site. (I always attach your names to it.)

  170. Larry Ledwick says:

    Chinese suggestions on masks and usage
    http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/07/c_76397.htm

  171. E.M.Smith says:

    Just checked with the Spouse. Doing a final check this weekend, then a “Trial Lock Down ” starting next Monday. One week run, then asses: What have we forgot? What is the (then) current status of spread? Decision: Formal duration lock down. | restock, fix omissions, and repeat? | Prep for end game? | Never mind… etc.

    Not doing anything optional for a good long while…

  172. Gail Combs says:

    Butterfly, found the recording:

  173. Gail Combs says:

    butterfly, also posted this.

    Looks like China has a run on the banks starting.

  174. Larry Ledwick says:
  175. Gail Combs says:

    From Rodney (Who likes his cow still mooing)

    https://ktla.com/2020/02/21/california-tells-7000-people-who-returned-from-china-to-stay-home-because-of-coronavirus/

    MAJOR NOT GOOD!
    7,000…. some of whom are spoiled rotten latte drinking snow flakes that have never been disciplined in their life.

  176. David A says:

    From Gail’s link…
    “The people returned to the U.S. on or AFTER Feb. 2 and are being asked to monitor their health, stay home and limit interactions with others, the California Department of Public Health said in a statement.”

    The Wuhan lock down was January 23rd. In the days just prior to that 4 to 5 million left. By February 2 and AFTER, ( what does that mean) The virus was already well into many parts of China. ??????

  177. E.M.Smith says:

    Essentially the same virus found in bats…. Don’t Eat The BATS, Damnit…

  178. Bill In Oz says:

    Here in Oz we have known for a while that bats harbour dangerous viruses. Horses and humans have died from infection by what we call Hendra virus since the mid 1990’s With a . 60% death rate for humans..
    So there has been a lot of publicity about not handling – never mind eating – bats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henipavirus#Australian_outbreaks

  179. Larry Ledwick says:

    Interesting – the progressive twitter verse has been trying to seed the idea for a couple dayst that a head strong President Trump over ruled his CDC and ordered them to bring back 14 contaminated evacuees from the Diamond Princes in direct violation of the CDC’s recommendations on handing the US citizen evacuation.

    Now at near Midnight 00:13 2/22/20 MDT CNN is pushing the exact opposite story that it was the State Department Officials which went behind the President’s back shooting him in in the foot on good infection control protocol.

    Given the need to choose which is the red meat media story for the general public and what CNN is reporting I have no problem buying the idea that the HRC progressive State Department weasels and CDC political hacks did exactly what CNN is saying and it it about to get dumped in the laps of the Democrats so they are placing a cover story to that effect, that they can point to later when it comes out.

    https://rettung24h.blog/2020/02/22/neues-coronavirus-aktueller-stand-faq-masnahmen/amp/

  180. Larry Ledwick says:

    Foreign policy is now pushing that story that President Trump over rode good infection control practice just minutes after CNN came out with the far more likely story that political hacks shot him in the foot.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/

  181. Larry Ledwick says:

    As folks watch this exchange this is the termination in the NSC unit (which we knew was thoroughly cooped by the Obama administration holdovers to block Trump in every effective administration move he tried.)

    They literally had their fingers in every single important administration pie they could get into.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/10/top-white-house-official-in-charge-of-pandemic-response-exits-abruptly/

  182. Larry Ledwick says:

    CDC staff refused to sign off on the step which brought 14 exposed Diamond Princess evacuees home to the US adding strong circumstantial support that it was in reality a State Department caper.

  183. Larry Ledwick says:

    Turning the twitter watch over to those where the sun is still up or rising, I need to get some rest.
    Later!

  184. M Simon says:

    David A says:
    22 February 2020 at 12:21 am

    The people you saw destroyed by drugs had PTSD. Likely from child abuse. Very clever of the authorities to ascribe the results of PTSD to drugs. Don’t you think? PTSD is some very wicked shite. Look it up. On top of all that PTSD is a genetic condition. Very kind of “us” to make war on people based on their genetics. The genetics don’t “show” without traumatizing the soon to be “users”. Different genetics and trauma. Who could be more worthy of abuse?

    Addiction is a symptom of PTSD. Says Nobel Prize Winner in Medicine Eric Kandel in his book, “The Disordered Mind.”

    What makes this all so non-obvious is the separation in time of the trauma and the “addiction”. And if the child was abused at a very early age? There may be no coherent memories.

    Which is why this fact is so important.

    Post USA Civil War alcoholism was called “the soldiers disease”

    We of course don’t know the genetics. We do know the trauma.

  185. M Simon says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    22 February 2020 at 7:42 am

    The link I left here goes into the politics of the decision. Bad science will eventually be seen as bad politics. Evidently there are people who currently think those two disciplines diverge.
    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/16/16-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-corona-virus-outbreak/#comment-125312

  186. Larry Ledwick says:

    Same story getting repeated Trump was hung out to dry by self important staff rather than agreeing to changes in the original plan.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-was-not-told-coronavirus-infected-americans-would-be-flown-home-from-cruise-ship/2020/02/21/ae58b24c-54be-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html

  187. Bill In Oz says:

    Can we keep the USA politics of this to a separate thread ? Please ?

    South Korea has gone from 1 person infected to over 400 in three days.

    Superspreader at work !

    Two areas of South Korea in Lockdown !

    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-south-korea-coronavirus-crisis:-more-cases-in-last-few-hours,-infected-433,-dead-2,-critical-9,-suspected-cases-48,120

  188. Bill In Oz says:

    Further thoughts
    1 : We have all along been puzzled the statistics from China. They felt shonky given the extraordinary draconian character of the CCP regime response !.

    2: But maybe now with the more reliable figures coming in from South Korea we are seeing the truth about how fast this virus can spread completely unseen and unknown by super spreaders who are immune or almost immune.

    3 : Now would indeed be a feasible ‘explanation’ for the Chinese government draconian lock downs in Wuhan & elsewhere in China !. The complete lock down stops all spreading by confining everyone including the super spreaders to their homes..And if in the process people die, for the Chinese Government, “So be it – the disease is stopped ! “.

  189. Bill In Oz says:

    Jo Nova has put together this post here in Oz
    Which sums up the current situation very well
    ( Mind you the figures for South Korea have since got even worse )
    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/coronavirus-and-so-it-spreads-lock-downs-in-italy-south-korea-riot-in-ukraine/

  190. David A says:

    I agree Bill. I am considering that, so far at least, South Korea is being honest in their reporting the exponential expansion of infected. The numbers are frightening. (The pressure to hide such rapid expansion must be immense, as economic lock down is sure to follow)

  191. Larry Ledwick says:

    Would be nice if such a thread existed, but right now it does not. This public health catastrophe plays directly into the Left’s socialized medicine messaging and they are clearly spinning up a messaging theme to hang it around the Administration’s neck if they can.

    Interesting data here not sure of the root sources of it all.

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    11 minutes ago

    DEATH RATE
    COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
    AGE
    DEATH RATE
    80+ years old 14.8%
    70-79 years old 8.0%
    60-69 years old 3.6%
    50-59 years old 1.3%
    40-49 years old 0.4%
    30-39 years old 0.2%
    20-29 years old 0.2%
    10-19 years old 0.2%
    0-9 years old no fatalities

  192. jim2 says:

    I agree. Politics is on the table as long as it’s related, even tangentially, to the virus. The left will try to play this disaster to their advantage and we need a clear picture of how it plays out, so we can convey the truth!

  193. jim2 says:

    One thing sticks out like a sore thumb – other than Egypt, no cases in Africa or South America. FWIW.

  194. E.M.Smith says:

    I’ll ponder a thread split for political angle as I jump start the brain with morning coffee….

    Last night involved a bottle of saki so things might take a while to sputter up to speed…

    S.Korea is an astounding development. Given that the USA isnt testing folks other than China travelers or direct contacts with disease, I’m left wondering if similar things are happening here.

    IMHO, the global “disease control” operatives have either had a horrible cockup, or decided to just let it run its course and just issue soothing words while they bury 2 to 4% of mostly “useless eaters”. This thing will now not be stopped.

  195. E.M.Smith says:

    @Ossqss:

    Yeah, hiding behind a law that specifically exempts infectious disease issues…

    Here. IMHO a bit too breathlessly, Iceage Farmer point out container shipping blocking up:

    So that’s why chicken was 79 ¢ / pound at Smart & Final… shipments to China halted as their ports are full up of stuck containers with noone to unload them.

    So not just stuff out of China halted, but stuff in halting.

  196. E.M.Smith says:

    Well that’s not good… Covid-19 hits your kidneys and testicles. Lesions in testicles doesn’t sound very pleasant….

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1

    ACE2 Expression in Kidney and Testis May Cause Kidney and Testis Damage After 2019-nCoV Infection

    Caibin Fan, Kai Li, Yanhong Ding, Wei Lu Lu, View ORCID ProfileJianqing Wang
    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418

    This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

    Abstract
    In December 2019 and January 2020, novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) – infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, and has already posed a serious threat to public health. ACE2 (Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2) has been shown to be one of the major receptors that mediate the entry of 2019-nCoV into human cells, which also happens in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS). Several researches have indicated that some patients have abnormal renal function or even kidney damage in addition to injury in respiratory system, and the related mechanism is unknown. This arouses our interest in whether coronavirus infection will affect the urinary and male reproductive systems. Here in this study, we used the online datasets to analyze ACE2 expression in different human organs. The results indicate that ACE2 highly expresses in renal tubular cells, Leydig cells and cells in seminiferous ducts in testis. Therefore, virus might directly bind to such ACE2 positive cells and damage the kidney and testicular tissue of patients. Our results indicate that renal function evaluation and special care should be performed in 2019-nCoV patients during clinical work, because of the kidney damage caused by virus and antiviral drugs with certain renal toxicity. In addition, due to the potential pathogenicity of the virus to testicular tissues, clinicians should pay attention to the risk of testicular lesions in patients during hospitalization and later clinical follow-up, especially the assessment and appropriate intervention in young patients’ fertility.

  197. E.M.Smith says:

    Doubling time is overnight in some countries like S. Korea

  198. David A says:

    Could the extreme rates of infections be testing kits catching up?

  199. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    Some of that for sure in the USA, since we know kits shipped to all but 3 States were broken.

    For S. Korea it is likely just that they are doing effective and full testing, then they had a superspreader give to a church of 1000.

    For Iran, they likely have had a large silent infection and are doing “catch up” on identifying the problem.

    Other countries? Who knows…

  200. Larry Ledwick says:

    A bunch of random observations.

    https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=news&q=COVID-19&src=typd

    @ E.M.Smith

    Interesting question for you. Where perhaps your space habitat testing studied might bear fruit.

    Aside from making myself really sick with food poisoning, the other day, as part of my test and tuned studies, an obvious reality is making itself apparent lately. For the last few days I have been on a minimum physical activity function (sort of like the Chinese who have been sealed in their apartments) After not too long your body begins to complain strongly about being inactive. In fact it gets down right painful to move as your body gets little if any exercise.

    It is clear that as part of a home self isolation process you need to meet some minimum excise goal each day to keep the boy happy and ready to perform normal activities. You cannot just curl up in a ball and only engage in the minimum activity needed to take care of needs like eating and sanitation.

    Did you learn any guide lines regarding minimum long term activity?

    Most available advise is aimed at those engaged in weight loss etc but it appears the need to structure 30 -150 min a week of physical activity is good first effort.

    https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/fitness/expert-answers/exercise/faq-20057916
    https://www.abc.net.au/life/whats-the-minimum-amount-of-exercise-i-need-to-stay-healthy/10639592

  201. cdquarles says:

    There should be no surprise seeing kidneys being involved. 1. Kidneys get a substantial fraction of body blood flow. 2. Angiotensin converting enzyme is one of the factors involved in overall kidney function *and* maintenance of body fluid volume and vascular pressure.

  202. M Simon says:

    Covid-19 to cost China’s economy US$185 billion, ex-IMF official says
    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3051909/covid-19-likely-slash-us185-billion-chinas-economy-january

    That is roughly 1 1/2% of the Chinese economy. That seems small to me by a factor of 5X or 10X.

  203. E.M.Smith says:

    In live youtube, Dr. John Campbell just said it can spred via urine as it is excreted in urine. Once this gets into the street people of Democrat run cities like San Francisco or Los Angeles, with their tendency to pee anywhere, it’s going to go wild. Do The French still piss on walls or have they moved on from the 1950s?

    Also said one patient presented with gastro-intestinal issues and diarrhea ONLY so was sent to the surgical wing (UK practice). He then proceeded to give it to others… until they figured this out.

    @Larry L:

    We had weights available and one guy of our 3 used them. He maintained fitness fairly well. Another was a slightly pudgy heavy eater and sitter and stayed about the same weight but less of it lean mass. I tended to stay on the bed (lowest bunk so easy, and the other 2 guys tended to take the chairs) Despite all the food I wanted, my appetite adjusted and didn’t eat much. I dropped from about 195 lbs and fairly good muscle / fat ratio to 156 lbs. and modest muscling. Essentially the same thing you see with prolonged bed rest.

    In karate class I added significant muscle mass while initially dropping from 215 lbs to 200, then rising back to 205 but much more of it lean. All from limited space exercise and kata (forms or formal movement practice mostly in about 5 feet). Leg lifts, sit ups, side situps, push ups, jumping jacks, kicks in place (front, thrust, side, rear, … – both legs), punches (a few kinds), blocks (a few kinds). THEN we would start the class with kata, THEN, when entirely worn out, we would do new lessons and kumite (mock fighting with a partner). About 2 hours in total, IIRC, 3 times a week. Best condition I have ever been in. When first started, I could just get 10 situps done. After a few months I was doing over 100, mixed regular and both sides.

    Were I doing The Box again, I’d be off the bed and doing the karate regimen.

    Since I have a yard, I can still do garden stuff and get some sun. I’m planning to clean out the garage :-) Were I in an apartment, I’d likely run on sunny mid days as sun and UV kill the virus. Or bike ride (avoiding others).

  204. E.M.Smith says:

    @M.Simon:

    That number looks clearly bogus low to me. They are already lined up to lose about one month of production plus a chunk of working population.

  205. Power Grab says:

    Speaking of things that damage testicles, I understand that Wuhan was part of the test bed for 5G.

    I watched a video this week done by a fellow who said he was a cell tower technician of these systems. He mentioned that the 5G radiation was notably damaging to brain, eyes, and testicles.

    Here is a link to that video:
    https://humansarefree.com/2019/12/cell-tower-technician-dangers-of-5g.html

    Here is a link to an article published by the Physicians for Safe Technology. It has a wider discussion of these issues. There are links to many journal articles on this page.
    https://mdsafetech.org/wi-fi-effects/

    I’m always interested in the influence of other factors of life and the environment when considering things like epidemics. If not everyone within the sphere of infection gets sick, I’m curious about the absence of other threats (or presence of other defenses) that might be in play.

  206. Larry Ledwick says:

    That is why when this news first broke I bought extra UV-C lamps and that vent fan I mentioned the other day.
    If I needed to, have a whole house air UC-C capabilility that I could assemble that would be independent of over the counter disinfectants and would systematically lower airborne active virus to minuscule levels.

    Although sun exposure and UV exposure have value year around for psychological reasons in much of the US, since their intensity varies considerably by season during the winter season it is meaningless as germ control agent or vitamin D source unless out side exposure times are very high. Several months of the year north of 35 deg Long it is impossible to use it effectively because the required energy levels simply do not exist at the ground (especially if you are in a persistent over cast climate)

    https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/1313-vitamin-d-and-uv
    http://www.ironbrookuv.com/uv_fundamentals.html
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2789813/

    Some old research on spore killing effectiveness of sunlight. (bottom line it can’t hurt, but also you cannot count on winter sun killing biological pathogens in short periods of time.)

    At least with the UV-C lights I have a known quantity to work from and can reliably “over kill” as necessary to make high risk surfaces and such reliably safe.

    Click to access amjphealth00123-0005.pdf

  207. M Simon says:

    David A says:
    22 February 2020 at 6:27 pm

    The cock up in the American test kits is extreme. All samples now go to the CDC with a 3 to 5 day delay. Think of all the shipments of biohazard that are required. Think of the delay.

  208. Gail Combs says:

    A quick look at California and population since California seems to be the Bell Wether.

    I am fairly sure the virus is well under way in California. There is a large Chinese population in California and many go home for the New Years celebration or for business…

    ‘Officially’ the census only lists ‘Asian’ So for California:
    Asian = 4,861,007 or 13% of the population. Not all are Chinese of course.

    This is a quick look at the population over 300,000 per city and the % of population if over 3%.
    LOOK AT SAN FRAN-FECES!!! home of the ‘poop maps’

    Chinese in Los Angeles, CA 2,355,994
    Chinese in San Diego, CA 1,144,763
    % Chinese in San Francisco, CA 776,733 or 19.64 %
    % Chinese in San Jose, CA 930,193 or 5.50 %
    % Chinese in Sacramento, CA 689,481 or 3.44 %
    Chinese in Fresno, CA 503,594
    Chinese in Long Beach, CA 480,584
    % Chinese in Oakland, CA 390,827 or 8.37 %
    Chinese in Santa Ana, CA 363,938
    Chinese in Riverside, CA 347,816
    Chinese in Anaheim, CA 346,010
    Chinese in Stockton, CA 308,827
    http://www.zipatlas.com/us/ca/city-comparison/percentage-chinese-population.htm

    I am very much afraid the virus is in the wild in San Francisco by now and the only reason we do not know is because the drug addicts don’t feel the symptoms and the citiy is not about to test them when they fall ill/die.

  209. Bill In Oz says:

    E M I hope you do decide to do that split thread for the USA political aspects.
    From an international perspective how the pollies play the US politics side of Corona Virus id pretty irrelevant.

    @ Larry I read your comment about ‘socialised medicine’ … But surely it is exactly in this kind of situation that medical & quarantine treatment for all infected persons is essential. If treatment for COVID 19 is a pay as you go medical issue, then lots of people will not seek treatment and go on to spread the disease even wider.

    NB Singapore’s ‘socialised’ approach : All persons are required to report & go to hospital where the medical care is free and in fact people are reimbursed for loss of income by a payment of $100 Singapore per day while being treated.

  210. Bill In Oz says:

    I still think that the severe Winter has had a big impact Northern hemisphere countries.

    And that it is important to know that warm & humid conditions limit the the life span and the infection capacity of this Corona virus ..
    Summer here in Oz and there have been no deaths ( even in Chinese national patients ) and very few severe cases..And so far the disease is ‘contained’.

    And that situation is despite the large number of people who flew to china & back before quarantine was imposed on 24th of January. And despite the arrival of Chinese students etc. after a 14 day virus free stay in third countries.

    Big Crossed Fingers on this !

  211. Larry Ledwick says:

    Thanks M. Simon- that Fitness in 30 Minutes a Week book looks like exactly what I am looking for, ordered a old used copy from Amazon.

  212. David A says:

    I am in San Diego, 80 percent retired, working about 30 hours a month. ( Purely supplemental)
    I work in the trade show industry. My next scheduled work is on the 29th. In a week we may know a bit more, but thinking it may be a decent time to 100 percent retire, and thus avoid large crowds of traveling people. Thoughts??

  213. Another Ian says:

    ”Well, look at that. The Chinese Communist Party’s propaganda rag finally admits what I’ve said for a month: coronavirus didn’t start in Wuhan food market. So where did it originate? Time for answers from CCP. https://t.co/UTvcjvrHNz

    — Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) February 22, 2020″

    Via

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/02/22/its-probably-nothing-55/

  214. David A says:

    Gail those numbers must be high, something not right.

    M.Simon, those delays are incredibly bad. They have watched China quarantine almost 10 percent of the planet, and have had many weeks to amp up for this.

  215. Larry Ledwick says:

    Bill In Oz says:
    22 February 2020 at 11:18 pm

    By law, in the US if you present to an ER in medical crisis, you will be treated, don’t even have to be a citizen to have that benefit, in fact illegal aliens depend strongly on that subsidized medical care so they can stay off the books of the traditional medical insurance providers and screw productive citizens out of free health care

    Who ultimately gets stuck with the bill (if the bill even ever gets paid is a different game entirely).
    The hospital has to send you a bill, paying it is not necessarily required. Never mind that the Congress can enact special legislation for world wide Force majeure medical emergency.

    Only believe about 2% if of what the left is telling you, most of it is outright lies or gross misrepresentation.

    In the the US if I call 911 and as long as I don’t refuse medical care, they must transport and treat me.

    They are now pretending that because the current administration canceled a purely political addition to the the NSC (a group which has never had key medical responsibility before being purely an advisory council to the President) we are unprepared for medical crisis even though our country has had continuously had an office tasked with major medical response issues for 242 years (longer than our Constitutional Republic has existed.)

    Office of the Surgeon General est 1778
    (Dr. John Woodworth, was appointed as the first Supervising Surgeon in 1871)
    The Surgeon General is the head of Health and Human services which was constituted as it is now along with The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is the leading national public health institute of the United States. Formed: July 1, 1946 predecessor agencies date to at least 1942. They are required by law to update their emergency plans every 4 years.

    There are currently 15,000 people who work for the CDC.
    There currently are more than 6,500 officers on active duty with the Surgeon’s Generals Office

    Throw in a few thousand state health workers as part of state government and military efforts toward major medical emergency research and the US has significant resources to use when needed.

  216. Bill In Oz says:

    OK Larry. I am completely ignorant of how the USA medical system is structured, managed or funded. But then I do really need to know being here in Australia where we have a completely different system.

    I’m just concerned that capacity to pay for treatment by Corona virus infected persons, not affect whether they get treatment.

    And from a personal perspective, I don’t care if they are illegal immigrants or citizens etc. What’s important re Corona is that if they are here in Oz, they get treatment & quarantined…I guess that is what’s important in the USA & Japan, & Korea etc.

  217. E.M.Smith says:

    @Bill In Oz:

    Just trying to figure out what to separate / topic name.

    Per Socialized Medicine:

    Not Interested At All. Why? We have public health laws that allow the government to provide treatment for free in cases of epidemic or emergency. No need to screw up the system all the time to provide occasionsl herd treatment when needed. In fact, my first vaccinations were done at “The Farm Labor Camp” for free in the push to eliminate small pox (no you didn’t get a choice of what vaccinations, you got the batch) and my polio vaccinations (I got the first shot, then they changed to the sugar cubes) at school (again for free). They can also round up and forcibly quarantine / treat if needed. Often done for mental heath. “Baker Acted” is the term used for threatened suicide forcible confinement in the loony bin, for example.

    @Gail:

    We have a lot of different Asians here. San Jose, for example, has a Little Saigon and a Japan Town. Plus, most of San Francico China Town is very old families. Long ago lost contact with the mainland and they do their own Chinese New Year as a big S.F. show / event.

    I’m more concerned about the recent arrivals in Silicon Valley and all the business Round Eyes who shuttle back and forth.

    @David A:

    I think the numbers are likely right, for total Asians. Lots of Asians like California. After the South Vietnamese were scattered all over the USA, many of them moved to California (thus our Little Saigon and great Vietnam Restaurants :-)

  218. Larry Ledwick says:

    A refresher on recent Black Swan Events which have rocked th Financial world in recent decades.

    View at Medium.com

    An episode of the video series of “Connections” that points at what happened in the ancient world when the Plagues and collapse of Rome resulted.

  219. Bill In Oz says:

    Larry that link to Connections seems bad..No capacity to stop it or get away from it.Need to shut down my computer !

    Buggered !

  220. Gail Combs says:

    Larry,
    I talked Hubby into getting a UV light. Any suggestions on make and model?

  221. ossqss says:

    I had no issue with that video of that show connections. I did enjoy that show when it came out a while back. A couple decades I think.

    The ratio on the worldometer site is down to a 10% death level on closed cases. FWIW.

  222. Larry Ledwick says:

    Bill in Oz – this link works fine for me in The US.
    It originally was a BBC production so in your part of the world it might be blocked.

    Do a google search for “Connection, Faith in Numbers”

    It takes a while to queue up though.

    Gail these are the two lights I stocked up on.

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07KYTHWCS/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title

    and

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07KYTHWCS/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title

    The top link creates Ozone which is a pungent irritating gas which has germicidal action of its own.
    Often used in tight spaces to get into areas hidden from view to hunt down and kill black mold etc. but it will drive you out of the house.

    The second does not produce Ozone so needs direct illumination of the bio-agent to kill it.

    You will also need safety eyewear for when you set them up and turn them on/off

    https://www.amazon.com/Uvex-S0360X-Ultra-spec-SCT-Orange-Anti-Fog/dp/B003OBZ64M/ref=pd_bxgy_img_2/146-8232669-3119001

    I use UV for other things like kicking off epoxy cure when I want it to set fast without dripping or drooping.

    Like I said I bought them to have the parts for an air sterilizer but have not actually built it yet. My earlier UV lights are LED lights which I use for brief use with epoxy.

    Read the reviews and decide if these seem to fit your expectation. Water sanitation systems use both UV-C an Ozone for water sanitation in place of chlorine gas and the use of high energy UV-C in surgical sterilization has been in use for years, you just have to set it up so the light is not directly shining in the eyes of people in the room but rather creates a zone of high UV exposure that the room air will pass through often enough to reduce the bio-active hazard to near zero.

  223. Gail Combs says:

    David A.
    It is from Zip Code Atlas I see no reason for them to lie although they may be conflating Asian with Chinese. Total Asian Population = 4,861,007 per a different site.
    *https://suburbanstats.org/race/california/how-many-asian-people-live-in-california

    Zip Code Atlas, Area Code, City & State Profiles
    Zip Atlas is a structured collection of zip code, area code, city and state demographic, social and economic profiles. Each of the reports is accompanied by a detailed boundary map, allowing for visual representation of statistical data. Here you will find employment and unemployment rates, industry statistics, household and personal income reports, property value assessment, housing unit occupancy and vacancy breakdown, mortgage and rent analysis, age, gender, ancestry and racial profiles, education attainment levels and school enrolment among many others.
    *http://zipatlas.com/

    The first page had
    Los Angeles, California – % Chinese in Los Angeles, CA – 2,355,994 -2.07 %
    http://www.zipatlas.com/us/ca/city-comparison/percentage-chinese-population.2.htm

    Another page with the information arranged differently had:
    Los Angeles, California
    Chinese — 48,776
    Asian — 234,447
    From this page: http://zipatlas.com/us/ca/los-angeles.htm
    So it looks like on the first page they were giving the cities total population + the % and not the number of Chinese in the city. So I misread their chart. Sorry about that.

    So Chinese in San Francisco
    Chinese — 152,620
    Asian — 239,565
    …….

    Chinese in San Jose
    Chinese — 51,209
    Asian — 242,152
    …..

    Chinese in Oakland
    Chinese — 32,716
    Asian — 61,353
    >>>>>>>>>>>>

    There are still a lot of Chinese in those cities esp in San Francisco at 19.64 % percent of the population.

  224. Bill In Oz says:

    Larry I found it on Youtube.It worked fine then !

  225. Gail Combs says:

    Larry,
    THANKS!
    I could use both!
    I am in the humid south and I had to tear out the carpet in one room because of the mold. I also have a problem with my horse gear/leather wanting to mold and my hands turning to prunes from cleaning everything with vinegar.

  226. Compu Gator says:

    Gail Combs [said] 22 February 2020 at 10:27 pm [GMT]
    [….]
    % Chinese in San Francisco, CA 776,733 or 19.64 %
    [….]

    Omitting the source Web-page’s column headings[*] in your posted formatting of the list is confusing. Many readers will not recognize that, e.g., the 776,733 is the total population of San Francisco, not the Chinese “19.64%” of some total ca. 5 times that size. S.F., which is surrounded on 3 sides by water, and whose expansion on the south side is blocked by San Mateo County, has had nearly that same population since at least the 1990s, when I exited Silicon Valley. Likewise on total population vs. Chinese population for San José (where Vietnamese are more abundant, at least when I lived in the Valley).

    I’m assuming that many readers will also just accept your numbers instead of loading the Web page that you cited, which would immediately clarify the numbers you posted.

    ——-
    Note *: “Location (# Zip Codes) Population % Chinese”.

  227. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A:

    29 Feb, eh? So 7 days away…

    Numbers aprox:

    34 million in California.
    7000 under “observation”
    ? Unknown in the wild
    In the wild CAN double daily with unidentified superspreaders.
    Flights / sources still happening from Italy, Iran (indirectly), Japan, S. Korea.

    Assume maybe 10 unknown cases “in the wild” in California. Do the doubles:
    20 40 80 160 320 640 1280 by then
    Add in 5 / day arriving from other countries (the bug showed up without a known source in them, so… unknown who has it and might be flying in) call it another 35.

    So as a crude estimate, about 1325 by then … 34 million / 1325 = 25, 660

    So are you OK with a one in 25,660 odds you meet a carrier?

    Disclaimers:
    This is a mathematical wild ass guess bassed on mumbers pulled from the air. Don’t trust it.
    IF your trade show attracts foreigners or heavy travelers / foreign booths, the odds could be enormously higher.
    If those 7000 don’t effectively keep quarantine (as easy as a shared apartment air system…) things could be massively pear shaped in a hurry.

    Personal Opinion:

    I’d call in sick with “something I ate gave me the trots…”. That gives them a week to get a replacement. Then decide when the next show rolls around and there is more information.

    We have slowly ramped up our precautions. As of this week, shifting to a much smaller local church (away from the tourist magnet Mission) and next week shift to TV Mass. I no longer shop at the Big Box stores (having fully stocked up) and as of the final run today, will only go shopping for omissions or any reasonable restocking if things do not ramp up as expected, and that at the very local shop with far fewer people.. As soon as “communuty transmission” is confirmed we just don’t leave the house for a month or three. Until then, we only leave if something necessary pops up. (Like today was to get poultry seasoning, crackers, chips, and some other spices I’d forgotten to inventory, along with extra distilled water for a medical appliance. I now think we’ve got everything… so the trial lock down was useful)

  228. Bill In Oz says:

    We have built up an industry here in Australia
    Providing education to Chinese students.
    The Industry is exerting pressure to avoid this market collapsing
    because of visa restrictions due to the Corona Virus disease in China

    It is a powerful industry.
    And no doubt behind the scenes it has been lobbying the government
    To allow it’s students in China to come back here !

    And it seems Australia is not alone in this.
    The same problem exists in the UK, the USA, Canada, South Korea & even Thailand.

    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/chinese-students-could-be-the-next-disease-vectors-to-help-spread-the-coronavirus-globally-warns-experts-current-death-toll-as-claimed-by-china-2441

  229. Compu Gator says:

    Compu Gator [said] 23 February 2020 at 3:31 am [GMT]

    Odd: Before I drafted & posted my correction above, I made a point of looking all the way down to “Anything to say?” to see if a follow-up correction had been posted by Gail Combs. But there wasn’t any such posting when I looked.

  230. jim2 says:

    Larry Ledwick says:
    22 February 2020 at 9:57 pm

    That is why when this news first broke I bought extra UV-C lamps and that vent fan I mentioned the other day.
    If I needed to, have a whole house air UC-C capabilility that I could assemble that would be independent of over the counter disinfectants and would systematically lower airborne active virus to minuscule levels.
    *********************************************
    Hi Larry, as you no doubt know, ozone is a powerful oxidizer. Very hard on human membranes – kind of like chlorine gas. If there is a high concentration of it, it will quickly degrade organic materials. So, point being, be sure your plastic fan is before the UV light in your sterilizer.

  231. David A says:

    @Gail, no worries on the error; one of my favorite quotes…
    ” Those of us to good for this world are adorning some other” It is great to see you posting here again!

    E.M, thank you sincerely for the council. I think I must turn the work down, despite it being a double time day.
    Besides, the reality is I must limit my earnings to avoid a SSI penalty until I reach full retirement age. ( I will think of something …(-;.

    I told myself to look out for China situations as a barometer on this virus; by that I mean look for Government extreme actions dissporportinate to the official numbers. Well Iran just fit the ticket perfectly. They report 29 infected, 6 dead… and then this…

    The riots started as the government ordered all schools, stores, malls, cultural centers to be closed NATIONWIDE with effective on Saturday noon as a preventive measure to contain the coronavirus spread.”. and…

    Hospitals were reported overflowing since Friday with patients, many with symptoms but were being turned away. Further , it emerged that many state hospitals did not have any diagnostic test kits despite the government reassuring its citizens a day before that Iran had more than enough stockpiles of test kits and drugs to deal with a coronavirus epidemic.”

    Sounds like China 2.0. With fire economic consequences I do not expect any government to be forthcoming. Kudos to South Korea for apparently being honest at this time.

  232. David A says:

    Oh, link to Iran article…
    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-iran-hit-with-coronavirus-panic-and-paranoia-as-street-riots-erupts,-media-censorships-imposed-death-toll-now-6,-confirmed-infected-onl

    This appears to be a well connected publication. Sans the Coronaviruse news it is just medical News, not a far out or alarmist publication.

  233. David A says:

    True story… Apparently a mental hospital in South Korea had almost 100 percent infected; that’s crazy,
    I guess one FLU over the cuckoo nest.

    Sorry, this just hit my funny bone and the humor felt cathartic in this serious situation.

  234. E.M.Smith says:

    @David A.:

    You are most welcome.

    Interesting Iran article. Their tendency to huge close contact groups at Friday Prayers implies to me that they have many thousand in the incubating stage. Then the group dining with a shared pot will assure all the family gets it. R0 ought to be like the Korean church example. 80 to 150+.

    I’d also expect their frequent in person contacts with proxy groups like Hamas will assure rapid introduction throughout their area of influence. IMHO, that’s why they shut down the news. Don’t want their enemies to know that shortly their whole country and proxies will be out of commission for a month or two…

    Italy now has about double the USA cases and is preparing to hit the wall. But you need to adjust for population and “community contagion”. Call it about a factor of 6. 2x 2 x2 = 8 , so less than 3 doublings. Even if doubling time were half a week, we could be near there in a week + some unexplained communuty spread cases.

    S.Korea went from minor to toast with one church lady and a few days. How long can we be perfect at catching every asymptomatic traveler / uber driver / stewardess / sailor / … ?

    That’s why I’m already prepped now, and ratching down contacts now.

  235. E.M.Smith says:

    Oh I am so stealing that joke!

  236. ossqss says:

    I would say that if you have a predisposition to this Virus, be extra caution. If you don’t, the extreme is not necessary. I expect most of us will be exposed in some way or another simply based on the asymptomatic potential of transmission and the exponential nature of exposure vectors. We all knew who was sick with other challenges. We don’t with this one.

    Here is what we know of mortality by age as of today associated with such. Pay attention as this evolves.

    COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
    AGE
    DEATH RATE
    80+ years old
    14.8%
    70-79 years old
    8.0%
    60-69 years old
    3.6%
    50-59 years old
    1.3%
    40-49 years old
    0.4%
    30-39 years old
    0.2%
    20-29 years old
    0.2%
    10-19 years old
    0.2%
    0-9 years old
    no fatalities

    Add on predisposition complications and it would be nice to have age based data, but we don’t yet that I can find.

    COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
    PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
    DEATH RATE
    Cardiovascular disease
    10.5%
    Diabetes
    7.3%
    Chronic respiratory disease
    6.3%
    Hypertension
    6.0%
    Cancer
    5.6%
    no pre-existing conditions
    0.9%

    Good news is the ratio’s are trending downward overall, as far as I can see. .

  237. ossqss says:

    FWIW, supplemental, if the link works.

  238. p.g.sharrow says:

    Covid-19 coming to a town near you! It may all ready be on your street. There is no escape so stay healthy. Take lots of Vitamin”C” and stay out of hospitals.
    For most people this is just another Corona cold virus.

    “Early clinical studies have shown that vitamin C can effectively prevent this process. In addition, vitamin C can help to eliminate alveolar fluid by preventing the activation and accumulation of neutrophils, and reducing alveolar epithelial water channel damage. At the same time, vitamin C can prevent the formation of neutrophil extracellular traps, which is a biological event of vascular injury caused by neutrophil activation. Vitamins can effectively shorten the duration of the common cold. In extreme conditions (athletes, skiers, art workers, military exercises), it can effectively prevent the common cold. And whether vitamin C also has a certain protective effect on influenza patients, a few studies have shown that vitamin C deficiency is related to the increased risk and severity of influenza infections. In a controlled but non-randomized trial, 85% of the 252 students treated experienced a reduction in symptoms in the high-dose vitamin C group (1g / h or 1000mg/hour at the beginning of symptoms for 6h, followed by 3 – 1g doses/ day). Using this vitamin C protocol on 2019-nCoV patients seemed to give good results.”

    This treatment showed the best results with the least chance of further damage to internal organs that other more aggressive anti-viral medications have demonstrated…pg

  239. E.M.Smith says:

    @P.G.:

    Even the non-serious cases are not like a cold (head rhinovirus or chest other virus). It hits systems all over the body including G.I., kidneys, cardiovascular and more. It leaves some guys sterile. Don’t minimize something that puts 20% in the hospital often for weeks.

    My goal is not to avoid the virus forever (that is my hope though…). My goal is to avoid getting it during the peak chaos and no treatments, but rather after the peak when the treatment supply has ramped up and the hospital beds are emptying while staff knows exactly what to do.

    With luck, it will be fast enough that herd immunity has it die out before I get it…

  240. M Simon says:

    Wuhan to quarantine all cured patients for 14 days after some test positive again
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051966/coronavirus-wuhan-quarantine-all-cured-patients-14-days-after

    Under control my asp.

  241. E.M.Smith says:

    @M. Simon:

    The news just keeps getting better… so now up to 27 days to develop, then weeks in hospital, then potentially a few more weeks after “cure” in quarantine…

    So we’re up to 2 to 3 months now? Plus needing maybe a dozen test kits per person.

    Maybe I’ll buy more groceries….

  242. M Simon says:

  243. Larry Ledwick says:

    @jim2
    Hi Larry, as you no doubt know, ozone is a powerful oxidizer. Very hard on human membranes – kind of like chlorine gas. If there is a high concentration of it, it will quickly degrade organic materials.

    Yes well aware of that in fact Ozone is a more aggressive oxidizer that Chlorine gas, but has the advantage that when it degrades returns to pure natural oxygen without leaving any caustic chlorine products behind. For deep disinfection you turn it on and leave the house. It will get under carpets and into crevices that are hard to disinfect by other means.

    Put it on a timer and then let things air out for a hour or two until the ozone smell goes away before you return to your “spring fresh” home.

    I bought ceramic sockets for the lights so they won’t mind the aggressive oxidizing conditions. The UV chamber will be made out of glass or metal mirrors and ducts with the small fan forcing air through the system, but not have the ozone itself go through the fan.

  244. E.M.Smith says:

    Larry L:

    In your comment here: https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/16/16-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-corona-virus-outbreak/#comment-125444

    The two links are the same “with ozone” bulb. If you post the right link I’ll fix it.

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